Kaguya-sama: Love is War Mafia - Game Over - Town & Hitman Win

[Magnus]

Obligatory “I’ve slanked most of today, now here’s a weak update to make up for it.”

Alright, I just have a really terrible feeling about this Catbae wagon, if I’m totally honest.

@catbae

IF YOU DO NOT KILL ACHROMATIC TOMORROW AFTER I FLIP TOWN, YOU ARE GAME THROWING.

This isn’t necessarily the most useful quote, but it’s a nice premise to fall back on to support this argument.

@catbae

zorvo honestly shouldn’t endgame either for the record

@catbae

i do not follow why you’d kill jackrito? if he doesn’t use his vig?

@catbae

this again is a completely insane and weak vote, wtf are you doing

@catbae

or i’m trying to make you think i’m doing the former when really he’s just a townie haha (but for real i wouldn’t be playing the way I am right now as scum)

Catbae’s sharing their thoughts reserved for after the time they’d already be executed, rather than proposing alternative wagons for today.

@catbae

I don’t play scum even remotely like you do, marl, but when I know my number is up I don’t give town anything useful to work with

Additionally, Catbae’s sharing their thoughts without really defending themselves at this stage of the game.

@catbae

I have been playing under the assumption I’m the yeet since last night, I am still playing, I’m just replying to things

This is therefore indeed correct.

@catbae

Your solving is incredibly rigid and generic and I question whether the stuff you’re posting are real thoughts

@catbae

I want to reiterate: I think achro/bean is aggressively unlikely with how he tried to swing the wagon onto her, and you should almost never vote out a claimed town roleblocker before ELO. it’s mechanically suboptimal play.

@catbae

I’m not going to spend an excessive amount of time trying to worldbuild and find exact connections in that manner because I don’t think it’s super likely to be accurate or prdoductive vs. focusing on individual players and thinking about their likelihood of being scum

@catbae

I think potential as scum goes up significantly if achro/zorvo are both town but press X to doubt

@catbae

I agree that socially beancat’s claim is kind of hard to swallow but now with most of the town power claiming to be heavily gated, I think the setup is too weak for town if beancat is scum

@catbae

This is aggressively false and should be noted even when I’ve flipped town, I think marl is entirely readable as town based on his play

There’s a lot more to this than just that, but I’m not going to quote Catbae’s entire ISO.
Here’s the trend: Catbae fully believes their number is up, and has accepted this fate. Anyone could realise that by reading through their ISO. A wolf would either attempt to defend themselves here, or else throw town off the right track, neither of which seems to be happening here. As far as I’m aware, Catbae preflips town here.

“Execute them anyway to confirm Bean as Town or something.” While this makes sense as an argument, I’m contrary to a fault.

(Furthermore, is there any reason to necessarily believe Leafia/Phraze are both town Masons? Isn’t it possible one of them are town and the other’s a wolf, or something like that? In any case, saying they’re both aligned isn’t necessarily the only outcome here.)

Even if I’m not confident in axing Catbae, I still oughta vote someone. As a matter of principle, you understand, because I’m entirely confident Bae goes anyway today. I don’t want to vote Bean,
VOTE: Marluna

@Marluna

I am definetly not a Jester-like role.

Thanks for letting us know.

@Marluna

I’m fine with yeeting either beancat or Achro.

This post came near the end of D1, according to the votes.

Kanave (4): Vulgard, Phraze, Leafia, Jackrito
Magnus (3): Kanave, mollylikesorigami, Achromatic
catbae (3): thepigeonnyc, Zorvo, beancat
mollylikesorigami (1): Magnus
Marluna (1): Marluna
beancat (1): catbae
Jackrito (1): Jaiden
Sleep (1): Marluxion
Zorvo (1): lol

@Marluna

VOTE: Achromatic

This then leads to the Achro wagon which gets pretty close to comfort. I’ve already expressed the idea, if not an analysis, on why I think Achro probably flips town, so considering the votes at that specific time I reckon Marluna and Kanave were partnered.

@Marluna

But who the heck is Kanave?..

Derpclear denied. If Kanave was using a different name in this game I’d understand it, but I doubt Marluna just forgets to check the OP before asking this question.

@Marluna

VOTE: beancat

Keep in mind, voting a PR before they claimed isn’t suspicious in itself. The fact that Marluna chose these votes instead of the then highest wagon, Kanave — or even the follow up wagons, really — just makes me all the more suspicious of this slot in particular. They were active around that time.

@Marluna

I claim NK.
Jaiden didn’t die to my shoot.

Considering how this has never been followed up on, I’m willing to accept this was a joke claim.

@Marluna

(I doubt that a 3-way executioner would get scums in their targets)

Potential guard if Marluna’s scum and paired with any of those three targets, although I’m not going to make that assumption.

@Leafia

Then why were you trying to save Kanave EoD 1 by trying to get me to change my vote?

@Marluna

Can you quote any post where I encoureged anyone to vote off from Kanave?

No problem!

@Marluna

Why not vote Jaiden then?

…Oh wait, but did anyone really believe Marluna wasn’t a wolf already? In any case, I cannot in good conscience vote Catbae today and this is my substitute vote. I don’t really mind if you all just laugh it off.

[CRichardFortressLies]

Magnus my fellow Aussie! How are things?

[Magnus]

The Earth continues to rotate around the sun, even if the sky is currently dark. How’s it going?

[CRichardFortressLies]

If Marl were mech cleared. I would think someone would have mentioned it already.
From social reads, he’s more likely to have randed town, as I for one don’t get the impression he is dying on the inside from randing scum which has happened to him quite a lot recently…

[CRichardFortressLies]

Good thanks. EoD time is ass for Aussies, yet we play for fun.

[CRichardFortressLies]

Magnus regarding your Catbae defence, the problem around the slot is that they’re in permanent PoE. You don’t want those slots around especially in LyLo.

[Vulgard]

@Leafia

I’m honestly not sure if I would’ve thought of claiming masons with a scummate as a wolf D1,

What is this? You literally have done this before and even admitted as much when I brought it up

@Marluxion

still dont trust achro and no one else should either

You see, just yeeting Achro instead IS an option

[Vulgard]

Also hi CRich

[CRichardFortressLies]

@Magnus

(Furthermore, is there any reason to necessarily believe Leafia/Phraze are both town Masons? Isn’t it possible one of them are town and the other’s a wolf, or something like that? In any case, saying they’re both aligned isn’t necessarily the only outcome here.)

It makes no sense for Leafia and Phraze to be of different alignments here. Neither of them have for one rescinded claiming masons with each other.

[CRichardFortressLies]

Long time no see Vulgard.

[Magnus]

I’m just here hoping I don’t wake up one morning and find out I was randomly flashwagoned in my sleep. The first day’s usually the riskiest time for me though, and I’m not worried about being nightkilled so we’ll just see what happens!

Beancat roleblocked Catbae, and there were no nightkills.
Pigeon protected Marl.

I certainly understand why Catbae’s the highest wagon, hence why I’m expecting them to face the axe regardless of what I say or do. Conscientiously though, I don’t believe they’re the most likely player to flip as maf this time.

[CRichardFortressLies]

I’m honestly inclined to put Magnus as a town lean, as they seemed to believe Phraze and Leafia might be masons claiming different alignments which feels too “what the duck is this?” to come from scum.

[Vulgard]

I’ll be frank here and say that I am not completely comfortable going catbae even if Beancat is a PR claim and killing her first is mechanically suboptimal

Is killing Achromatic just. Not an option?

[Magnus]

Are Masons necessarily from the same alignment? Can’t one be a town!mason and the other maf!mason and still share a private chat, without sharing a wincon?

[Vulgard]

Not going to lie but the more recent posts have made me worried that catbae/Beancat is V/V and I’m looking for an alternative

Might still go catbae or beancat at EoD due to peer pressure or for the gamestate but I’m not super comfortable with this anymore

[CRichardFortressLies]

Yeah I remember that time you got wagoned in a game I hosted. Which is understandable as either alignment tbh.
Here’s the thing. Is catbae potentially a miss? Yes. Do you want the slot to be alive at LyLo? Absolutely not.

[Vulgard]

They have to both be town unless the game is bastard which it is not

[CRichardFortressLies]

Achro is being mentioned as an option for D3. Right now executing catbae is the best course of action.

[Magnus]

I didn’t entirely understand how masons work, I just figured they shared a private chat and that was that, so it’s good to confirm.

[CRichardFortressLies]

@Magnus

Are Masons necessarily from the same alignment? Can’t one be a town!mason and the other maf!mason and still share a private chat, without sharing a wincon?

In that case you call them neighbours. Masons always share the same alignment. Neighbours otoh can be different or same alignment.