Kittens Game: Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, TOWN WIN

[SirDerpsAlot]

I feel like people often don’t consider enough the strengths and type of player someone is and read everyone similar, which doesn’t work

[SirDerpsAlot]

When I read thread will I see like the math for why 0/3 is best?

[Ash]

Highest value that arises from multiplying the likelihood by the bits of information acquired.

[SirDerpsAlot]

I don’t want to actually think about the math if it’s been said I’ll see it when I read otherwise I was gonna ask someone to just spell it out so I don’t have to think that hard

[Ash]

Likelihoods of Events Happening (assuming it’s entirely random)

The amount of bits of information each gives is the secret ingredient Zugzwang’s already calculated.

[Frostwolf103]

@Ash

Likelihoods of Events Happening (assuming it’s entirely random)

The amount of bits of information each gives is the secret ingredient Zugzwang’s already calculated.

Homer Simpson sounds

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

I reckon we will get 1 mafia in kikruma/zug/tutuu and it will be kirumma

But this is good info so lets go along with it

[Ash]

If we get 1/3 from VOTE: Kiiruma, VOTE: Zugzwang, and VOTE: Tutuu, it’s absolutely Kiiruma. I can’t see Zugzwang being mafia, and Tutuu’s name was not put in by him (in contrast to Kiiruma).

[SirDerpsAlot]

lets gamer get Kiis teammates and just win ez

[tutuu]

Im fine with the current course of action

I think hippo might be town. Due to the somewhat aggressive start

[Kiiruma]

Lmao I really hope we get a 0 out of the 3 of us otherwise town have already lost due to saying I’m the wolf of us all

[tutuu]

Why would it be all in vain if it was 1/3 and people wrongly suspected you? Would you not fight given ud have extra info?

[Kiiruma]

I mean to be fair it wouldn’t be a disaster either way because mechancially I’ll still say the optimal moves. But with everyone being so confident this is going to get a 1 I’m thinking that I’m about to be boned.

[Kiiruma]

Oh I mean I will be making suggestions still and fighting, I ain’t gonna give up.
I just think people’s reactions are so fucking shady rn about all this

[Kiiruma]

With people continually saying what they’re saying it feels like they’re TMI-ng that we’re going to get a 1 and that I’m the planned frame job. But I could just be misreading it considering the fact I can see I’m good as can others too.

[SirDerpsAlot]

Wanna say Ashe town for thread entrance

@Kiiruma

Also I’m going to say this as it’s going to call mafia out. Ideally for them they’re going to want us to be learning 1s as that is the least possible information for us to have. As a result we should take people’s directions with scrutiny, especially as we come towards the end of every day within this game moreso than in normal FM / BotF games.

interesting blanket mindset to have going into the game as town imo

@Kiiruma

Too much discussion and it lets mafia know our entire plans while some should be discussed moreso in private amongst our confirmation chains.

this is silly, if a given plan is actually mechanically the best it shouldnt matter if mafia are part of the discussion of the plan

@Bionic

VOTE: Kiiruma

ill town clear bionic off this posts

@tutuu can you link me the 3p game you had? Just curious about it more than anything

@Zugzwang

I in fact have a program to tell me the optimal*

nerd

@Kiiruma

plus some social reading

if we learned anything from lizards social reading should not be a addition or some

@Zugzwang

Anyway, I feel we, collectively, need to decide whether we’re going for 0/3 (and then vote towny people), or whether we’re going for 2/3 (and then vote wolfy people).

2/3 is definitely better, however it has a much lower chance of randomly happening.
(Probabilities, with random jailings:
0/3 → ~38%
1/3 → ~49%
2/3 → ~12%
3/3 → ~0.5%
)

you failed to consider im built different

@beancat

confident kiiruma detected

VOTE: Kiiruma

townclear me think

@tutuu

Perhaps let the day run naturally, acquire social reads, and if we have plenty of townreads then aim for 0/3 and try to verify, if we have plenty of scumreads and not much of a towncore go for the consensus scumreads

I like this thought

@Kiiruma

Because getting a 0 is quite good. And honestly atp I’m reading Zug as good.
So if people wanna send me, Zug and Tutuu I’d be down

might just be conf biasing myself but this feels like Kii trying to push a 1/3 through

@Kiiruma

VOTE: Zugzwang VOTE: Kiiruma VOTE: Tutuu

I’d love if the reason some people haven’t liked my confidence / wall is because I had a 2/3 wolf in it lol

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

@Zugzwang

ok this is a towny thought

when did this occur to you?

nah wouldnt give that any town cred tbh

@guavagudetama

Why would literally anyone ever claim mason that doesn’t really seem beneficial

I could probably figure out some way to do it beneficialy cuz im op (and no one knows wtf is happening in my brain)

@Zugzwang

Tutuu - lean/light town. They’ve felt a lot like their previous town self (though admittedly I don’t have wolf meta to compare to). I also like #73 and #130, though whether there’s wolf motivation for these posts depends greatly on alignments.

Kii - light town. I very much like #87 - it’s a pretty hard thought to fake. That being said, I’ve been a bit nervous about him pushing wolf agenda, mainly in a world with one wolf in {Someone, Bionic, Derps}. I don’t like how he tried to push that somewhat arbitrary world out of the gate, and I don’t feel his reason of using it as ‘a basis if we had no other direction.’ If it were most people I’d probably wolfread that response harder, but from a player like Kii, who likes mech, I can somewhat see it.

Marluna - nullish town. I think (as explained by Tutuu in #130) that, if myself/Tutuu/Kii is 1/3, it’s the best possible 1/3. And of course, there’s a good chance it’s 0/3. So, I like Marluna’s vote, which solidifies these likely anti-wolf wagons.

Someone - null.

Frost/Hippo/Guava/Derps - no posts yet

Bionic - Light wolf - Dislike the way he instantly was on board with voting Me/Tutuu/Kii, despite having no read there (or alternatively scumreading Kii, if the earlier posts weren’t joking).

Beancat - Light wolf - Not a fan of how she wolfread Kii in #62, and then dropped it. Also I don’t like that she felt it strange that there was little pushback to the current wagons, but then didn’t do anything about it. First one miiight be me missing a joke though.

Ash - Medium-lean wolf. I really don’t like how in #150 they are very confident Kii is always the 1/3. It feels like either TMI or a wolf failing to fake a read. His reasons given in the following posts, where I questioned him, felt milquetoast. Also, I also don’t like the way they immediately dropped their concern about stagnant wagons in #149. I feel my reason of ‘not much time has passed and many people haven’t posted’ is not too hard to think of oneself, so it feels wolfy that he didn’t. That being said, on both these points, I’ll give him that it was 1 AM for him, so it’s not too bad a look.

funny my current reads are like opposite of 80% of this lol

@Zugzwang

(reason)

I like the only 14 second delay here
Indicates fluid (and therefore towny) thoughts

can you tell me how to do this at some point?

[SirDerpsAlot]

VOTE: Bionic
VOTE: SirDerpsAlot
VOTE: Ash

[tutuu]

Legacy Forum of Lies 2 - The Psychopathic King, Possessor, and Alchemist win

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I was Caligula

[SirDerpsAlot]

also you all just talking about statistics hurts me

why cant you nerds just play social deduction game

why is not on discussing anything

why are we all just okay with whats happening

[Kiiruma]

Talking about statistics is useful, it allows us to analyse the possibilities and draw logical thoughts from there.