Kittens Game: Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, TOWN WIN

[Ash]

I wonder…
VOTE: Rum
VOTE: Lun
VOTE: Po

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Yeah but if its not guava or me weve wasted 2 days going for specific teams instead of narrowin it down first

Its like when you lay guess who you dont guess individuals first, you try say broader things to narrow it down before specific guesses

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Im just saying, if its not exactly guava/kii/marl we probably lose as theyll guess before d6

And i dont think it is guava/kii/marl so yeah

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Actually yeah this is rlly bad lol

[Ash]

I see your logic; I’m just trying to calculate the possibilities out.

[Ash]

As far as I understand it, this vote should confirm a Kiiruma-Marluna mafia and confirm that you and me are town.
From there, we have five guesses left, and we can probably drop Tutuu and Frost from that list. That leaves Guava, Bionic, and Someone (and it’s probably just Guava here).
Does that make sense?

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

But is it probably guava? Theyre blind insnsitence kii is town doesnt come across as W/W to me

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Like id much rather have exactly me/guava in jail today tbh. If thats 0 that is huge

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

alright you know what for the good of town imma show you guys my d2 and why if i am mafia with kii/marluna i basically gamethrew.

i thought about doing this yesterday but i couldnt be bothered but im laptop now so can do quickly

[Ash]

Maybe? Zugzwang’s pitched this premise to me before, but this just…makes sense to me.

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Mafia are unlikely to guess tonight, but likely to guess night after imo. So realistically we probably have todays guess, tomorrows guess, and then one final guess.

If we have today as my guess (wrong), and then tomorrow as guavas guess is also wrong, we suddenly have to choose between someone/bionic with frost/tutuu also not clear and go for a heroshot 100% or we lose

[Marluna]

But that doesn’t narrow down our 2/3

Me/kii/you is better than you and guava alone.

[Kiiruma]

The fact that all 3 of yall are interacting and you all seem fine with this is making me highly paranoid I’m about to be stuck in another 2/3 and that I’ll know the entire evil team due to it but nobody will listen to me.

But I’m going to just trust in my reads that Hip is good and that this is only a 1/3, that Marluna and Ash are going for it because they both have no sway and that all will be fine.

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

imma just post a bunch of quotes that I don’t think make sense for me to post as mafia with kiiruma/marluna. I know I have posted posts which probably do make sense, but I feel people are only looking at those ones and ingoring the below ones to try confbias derps’ world as true. I am aware I flipflop a lot WHICH I DO AS TOWN, but I think the quantity of posts I have done which don’t make sense in a me/kii/marluna world should prevent town from putting me in today as it is not optimal.

I am not gonna explain a ton or add context to them as I’d rather people extrapolate whatever info they want to (plus I am lazy). These posts are all from D2.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

I do think just me and Kiiruma alone would be a super strong shout though

@Hippopablompoyeetus

If Kiiruma goes in I realllly want to go in with them and it is antitown to not put us together today if one of us is in imo

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Because if kiiruma/marluna/guava is anything but 3/3 tomorrow will be wasted discussing my slot

This is literally is what is happening (but swap guava to ash)

@Hippopablompoyeetus

How about:

Me / Frost / Kiiruma

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Kiiruma / Someone / Marluna probably does have 2 mafia actually

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Guys ive figured it out

Its Kiiruma / Ash

@Hippopablompoyeetus

I still dont think Guava is paired with Kiiruma though, their insistence that each other is town is too weird and looks pockety. So id go for Ash/Kiiruma and then Marluna

I was fone of first person to suggest ash/kii/marl pairing, which then hit 2/3. You guys sheeped me on it, because towards end of d2 I did actually have townsway (partly due to derps being inactive and zug townreading me more at this time). Why tf do I not suggest Kii/Guava/Ash pairing at this stage if I am with Marluna and Kii? Marluna was not more scummy than gauva at this point.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

VOTE: Marluna
VOTE: Kiirumaa
VOTE: Ash

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Idk about this three, may have been cuz everyone got bored after first 24 hours but kinda odd how most people just dipped 15 hours ago after votes consolidated on marluna/ash/kiiruma

Ok now this is my first post where I decide to change off of Marl/Kii/Ash. This is 5 hours from EoD. I am a good wolf. If I know Marl and Kii are my partners, I know that I don’t want them both in the 3 realistically. Why on earth do I push it for 12 hours and then 4 hours before EoD make a half hearted attempt to switch off? Do you think this is more likely to be a bored/paranoid town or a strategic wolf?

@Hippopablompoyeetus

I kinda think this is probably 2/3 and we can have ash and marluna dome and figure 2nd mafia out and maybe do totally outside the 3 tomorow

I also immediately flip back to wanting ash/marluna like 20 mins later lol

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Either way i think we dont have any crossovers today and tomorrow unless were super confident we have win

I am consistent with yesterday; this is stupid.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

imo we’re dilly dallying not putting kiiruma in and today has been kinda slow and i think with a dome in place (and specifically having some less active poe people know that they are in a dome and know mafia) it will be beneficial for us

People want Kiiruma out of jail yesterday. I say that is anti-town and stop it.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Honestly I think current top 3 will give us quite a lot of info, marluna / ash / kiiruma is fair and a 2/3 is huge

@Hippopablompoyeetus

But also like tbf if Marluna and Kiiruma are both mafia then why are they both townreading me when it seems very plausible all 3 of us are going into jail because the three confirmed town started the day wanting it.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Kiiruma remind me what your read of Marluna is?

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Yeah I think we just leave on Kii / Ash / Marluna

Highest chance of 2/3 imo.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

The CFD’er in me is crying but I must remain strong

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Derps is gonna be frothing at the mouth if this is 2/3 and his Day 1 Hippo / Kii / Marluna team is still alive

@Hippopablompoyeetus

yeah idk what that means. its telling I have never unvoted someone on this site I always just switch to someone else lmao

VOTE: Kirruma
VOTE: Ash
VOTE: Marluna

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Assuming this obvs isn’t gg (because if it is I’ll be kinda mad at the mafia for not trying to not insta lose lol)

Regardless of what this is I reckon we go for Guava/Frost/Someone tomorrow

@Hippopablompoyeetus

idk I don’t think we’re gonna win tomorrow

@Hippopablompoyeetus

It makes no sense to not send kiiruma today and anyone trying to switch off them should be sussers.

@Hippopablompoyeetus

Shall we swap ash out for guava?

@Hippopablompoyeetus

VOTE: Guava
VOTE: Marluna
VOTE: Kii

AGAIN, WITH LIKE AN HOUR AND A HALF TO GO MY CFD ATTEMPT IS TO SWAP ASH OUT, NOT MARLUNA. IF I AM MAFIA WITH MARLUNA AND KII, WHY IS MY CFD TO JUST SWAP OUT A VILLAGER WITH A VILLAGER,. THIS IS NOT MAFIA MOTIVATED AHHHH

@Hippopablompoyeetus

VOTE: Someone
VOTE: Kiiruma
VOTE: Guava

ok this one is bad, putting in there cuz idek why i i did this. but like, there’s literally an hour left to go and I don’t follow up on it at all. If i am mafia with kii/marluna, I am not an idiot and I’ll try to do this sooner.

tl;dr my cfd attempts did not benefit me in a Kii/marluna/Hippo team. I am not a bad wolf and would have tried to switch off my two teammates earlier than a few hours before EoD, and not push them into jail all day. My CFDs can be explained by boredom/paranoia of town

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

Probably should have done spoiler tags but i want ppl to read it at least. TLDR is at bottom

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

@Kiiruma

The fact that all 3 of yall are interacting and you all seem fine with this is making me highly paranoid I’m about to be stuck in another 2/3 and that I’ll know the entire evil team due to it but nobody will listen to me.

also lol, this is kiiruma prepping for the fact that it will be 2/3 again and getting ready to pivot on me tomorrow and suggest team is me/ash/marlina @Zugzwang @tutuu

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

(kiirruma is now going to realise what they have done and try post something that realigns us, watch)

[Kiiruma]

Hip. If you’d like to read the second bit I posted that’d be swell.

[Hippopablompoyeetus]

no my attention span isnt that long sorry

[Kiiruma]

@Kiiruma

But I’m going to just trust in my reads that Hip is good and that this is only a 1/3, that Marluna and Ash are going for it because they both have no sway and that all will be fine.

Here I’ll make it smaller then.