I feel like this hasn’t come across strongly in my posts or the mech content so I’ll be covering it here
I also feel like this is important.
Did wolves want this outcome?
Persuade (Night) - Convert target player to the Blue Dragon version of their class. If the Blue Dragon failed to convert a target twice already and your next conversion would fail, it will instead target a random convertible player. This ability is disabled the night following the death of a member of the Blue Dragon (not including the King). - Infinite uses
(from The Visionary. Thanks to Zugz for using bolds in this way so frequently because I can’t imagine presenting this in any other way now.)
If no wolves die before the start of night 2 (this was drafted during n1), then wolves will be able to convert on night 2.
What wolves give up by allowing Ash to die on day 1:
- They lock themselves into only the Visionary and Heroine ability set. This gives several roles with unique loud effects (such as Templar, one of whom already claimed [I am also Templar gotteem]) the ability to self clear as not scum.
Why wolves might want Ash to die on day 1 instead of any other time:
- They can convert on n2. They value that convert pretty highly.
Just looking at this I can see that they wanted that day 1 death. Ash was (no offense) dead weight to the team so making sure that his relatively likely death (I’m making an assumption here) wouldn’t interfere with their gameplan seems intuitively the correct play.
So did they really?
Yeah, but no. This outcome wasn’t guaranteed and likely only became a near certainty once brak’s push on the slot got momentum. It would be a far better outcome to go with a couple exes on villagers if they were able to do so and get some chaos going.
What does this tell me (and you people)?
Wolves were not in a position of thread control. There were people pushing decently strongly on Derps, Bionic (who dipped as a wagon before derps’s did), and (I think) all the top 3 highposters [at the time, 2 of which have no groupscum potential in my eyes] expressed a negative read and willingness to vote on me before I came in at EoD. From my perspective (since I believe derps is town relatively strongly), I perceive that wolves were not in control of thread’s narrative. Otherwise, they have some solid options to pile votes on.
I think we’re looking at low impact wolves. People who may have made some posts but left the game mostly up to itself.
This is circular logic when it comes to Brakuren but I don’t think it can’t be applied to townread the slot. Plus the push is just very towny anyway because the slot could have done anything else.
I think this logic best applies to jail. A high impact player who definitely has options. I don’t feel like getting into their voteswapping regarding me / ash but I feel like that creates some wrinkles.
I think this applies to Zugz pretty well in a positive angle.
