Anywhere it says P(I) that is P(H)
Anywhere it says P(H) is probably P(H) but might be P(G) if I fucked up somewhere
The P(FΔH) immedietely after the part I quoted is supposed to be P(FΔG)
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i’m not editing the post anymore
yeah just letting peopel know bc i got confused reading it and wanted ot make sure people knew gahjksdjghkgjkhda
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dw
VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: Lee
VOTE: Magnus
send it
VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: Kanave
VOTE: Magnus actually
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gambling on 20/54
this an attempt at 0/3, 1/3, 2/3 or 3/3
There’s earnest paranoia on my slot from numerous angles. From an outside lens, it might be charitable to slot somebody else in if you’re aiming for 0/3.
I don’t mind it, though.
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0/3
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you’re one of the only people who engaged with my math yesterday so from my pov you’re extremely pro town and this is an attempt at clearing your slot
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Can everybody please say now who exactly they think is scum in the d1 and d2 jails
goose/badeline either hits 2/2 or 0/2 and unfortunately my dumbass cannot figure out which is actually correct
test
test
Fusion really never questioned their wagon pool or named a suspect besides slightly finding Chomps’ discussion to be plausibly wolf-written, huh.
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test
test
test
test
test
test
test
test
test
May and Zugzwang are mafia.
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*Maybot and Zugbot.
It’s an understandable mistake.
3 Likes
Potato, tomato, same thing.
idk why that was so hard to find
anyway have this jail analysis I wasted several hours on and stopped caring about 75% of the way through
every possible d1+d2 slot pairing
- Fusion+Lee;
Very unlikely pairing.
First of all: This pair has a total of one (1) interaction, which is not pairing at all. (#314)
Secondly, Fusion and Lee were basically never pushing for the same thing D1 OR D2: Lee originally went for 3/3, while Fusion went for 0/3; While both voted for Chomps, Lee didn’t follow Fusion and vote for her, instead voting Goose and I (Notably, Lee’s vote tied my wagon with fusion’s, suggesting they didn’t really care which of us was jailed); and lastly, Lee pushed an s!fusion world most of d2, not voting anyone that Fusion voted.
Fusion also attempted to shade Lee early D2 before a wagon on him picked up, yet didn’t push for it very hard AND expressed dislike of Magnus’s push for the top 3 wagons. There’s no reason for s!Fusion to push back against this proposal if it contains exactly one of her scum buddies.
Basically, there seems to be little, if any, coordination/communication between the two.
- Fusion+Badeline;
I worded this like it was unlikely but it's pretty possible idk
Not much pairing happening here.
This is not as strongly true as it is for Fusion/Lee, but their vote choices simply don’t appear to be working toward the same goal.
Badeline questioning Goose’s Fusion townread (#293) is completely unnecessary from an s/s Fusion/Badeline pairing; Furthermore, their vote at (#348) pushed wagons that were effectively in opposition to Fusion’s push (of themselves, Ash and Goose). They do end up on the top wagons, but it’s just as an insurance to prevent it being randed; If this was an actual pair, it’s some heavy distancing right from the start.
Badeline’s pushing of s!Chomps most of d2 does make it more likely for the two to be paired, but the extent to which this is true is almost entirely dependent on who you think would be the third scum with this pairing (only a few slots would actually work, ex. Ash or Magnus) so it’s not a strong argument.
- Fusion+Prisma/Kanave;
Don't bother.
This pairing is no more likely than any other pairing of players with Prisma, simply because Prisma has basically done nothing. Pushing this is a waste of time and is unlikely to hit 2/2. Fusion never mentions Prisma at all, anyway.
————————
- Chomps+Lee;
Possible, but not convincing.
Interactions are yet again minimal; The only thing that hints at this pairing being a possibility is Chomp readily sheeping Magnus’s vote proposals D2, but this is just as pairing with Lee as it is for any of the other two wagons. Additionally, Chomps D1 claims that Lee’s votes are towny, but only if the votes hit 0/3, which they were not (and s!chomp would know would not hit). There’s just no reason for Chomps to mention this at all if they’re paired, or at least, no reason for them to make the townread conditional on something they would know is wrong; If anything, it would actually draw attention to Lee and make them look worse.
- Chomps+Badeline;
This is never a pair.
I think this one should be pretty obvious, but Badeline was pushing s!Chomps all of D2. That’s an objectively awful strategy for scum unless it’s part of some plan to deepwolf, which clearly is not working if that is the case. Very much unpaired here, so much so that I don’t think I need to get into much else.
- Chomps+Prisma/Kanave;
Again, don't bother. Semi-unpaired.
See what I said for Fusion/Prisma pairing. It’s basically =rand likely.
Additionally, see #665. Given this was Prisma’s first time playing this setup, I doubt they would be inclined to nonchalantly suggest their scummate as one of the wagons for the day.
————————
- Goose+Lee;
Not very likely.
Goose doesn’t take the basically free excuse to townread Lee, which is weird if they’re paired (#375); Also argues w/ a vote list that included Lee (#369), not much reason to do so as scum pair.
- Goose+Badeline;
Actually convincing, somehow.
Goose’s objection to Ash/Badeline (#435 etc) makes sense with this pair, as it would (with themself as a wagon) make 2/3. Their read on Badeline starts to lean townier conveniently when Badeline is in the highest 3 wagons with Chomps and Fusion is also suspiciously pairing. At the same time Goose consistently expresses light scum reads on Badeline throughout D1 and D2
- Goose+Prisma/Kanave;
I don't even have anything to say here I just think kanave is null by this point
#221 also could unpair the slots (not very strongly though)
Least to most likely:
-
Chomps/Badeline
-
Fusion/Lee
-
Chomps/Kanave
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Fusion/Kanave || Goose/Kanave
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Chomps/Lee
-
Goose/Lee
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Fusion/Badeline
-
Goose/Badeline
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