Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

I don’t know. I might’ve been thinking about two things at once at let one sentence bleed into the other.

I’ve been busy playing league for the past few hours, but I’ve been tabbing back into and out of thread. It’s been ruminating in my mind but I can’t figure out between ash/magnus which one is a wolf between them, if there is one at all. The 1/3 yesterday is causing me to reevaluate all my strongest reads, namely people like pandas, magnus, and ash. I still think it’s fairly likely pandas is town, but paranoia is growing. If there is a wolf between Ash and Magnus, it’s probably magnus because of how strongly magnus townreads ash. I thought the way Magnus was townreading Ash was because they were scumbuddies but it’s also very possible that Magnus was trying to pocket Ash. Or the last wolf could be in padnora/spooky/pandas/quail, which is also very possible. Out of those 4 I’d lean quail but that’s more so because of an absence of a read rather than a scumread. I have a lot of idle work to do tomorrow, packing and what not. I’ll try and give this game some more thought then, though I won’t be checking thread. Hopefully I can try and put the pieces together.

To be clear, because this post isn’t, I still think theres a good chance Magnus is a wolf out of the 6 people remaining, but I’m less convinced on it than I was yesterday. And, this wasn’t mentioned in the post, but I think it’s still most likely (assuming magnus is wolf) that chomps was the wolf in the first beam. People are scumreading goose but I haven’t seen anything in specific that has caused my mind to switch on him but I could be easily convinced with a good case. Maybe there is one and I missed it.

VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Ash
VOTE: Pandas

Wanna see if I can get a 0/3 with this.

Good morning, town. That was the best sleepover I had in years. Free cookies, swimming pool, topped with a rito down bed. Amazing.

First glance in here, but what is the point of voting Kanave?

Rito? You are not in Hyrule.

2 Likes

I can dream!!

1 Like

I think I’ve got a good feel for badeline being the wolf in the second pair but I don’t have a strong grasp on the first pair

u have a case for Goose?

i actually need to iso people but its 3am

i hate magnetheads :angry:

You guys are comically wrong about me and Badeline and don’t think case even makes sense but at this point I think you should put us together to move on.

Argument 1:

The story of D1.

1 - Badeline/Ash and a random third (think Fusion for a bit, think Pandora for a bit, think Fusion for a bit) are top 3. This is great for me if team is badeline/me and not the third person.

2 - instead of just leaving the wagons as a 1/3, which I don’t even suggest so I would look great, I campaign for myself to be top 3 alongside Badeline. Peak gameplay.

3 - then last second I decide wagons suck and we switch (this bit makes sense tbf as I wouldn’t want me and badeline in top 3, but THE ONLY REASON WE WERE IS BECAUSE OF ME ANYWAY).


Argument 2:

Hippo smart.

  • My thought process on badeline make sense? I indepentendly scumread Ash and Badeline, but wagon comp is bad, no one is interested in switching, and they are beefing in a non-paired way. Obvious thing to draw is that wagons are going to be a 1/3 with one of them being mafia.

  • I then look at ash and badeline and decide badeline is townier. Yesterday felt like ash was literally lolcatting. So I say most likely world is ash mafia badeline town.

  • This is not me hard locking badeline as town, I literally said I scumread then d1, just that I think more likely ash is the mafia.

For some reason people keep shading me for this read and saying it pairs me and badeline and I don’t think it does.


Argument 3

What mafia be doing

  • I swear it doesn’t even make sense for mafia to townread each other in this format cuz mafia don’t get voted out and mafia lost from being paired together? If I am mafia with badeline what do i possibly gain from townreading them for no reason? Surely it makes more sense for me to keep my scumread from d1 and say “hey guys this is a 1/3 and IT IS BADELINE”. Then I have a reason to never be paired with badeline in jail and there’s literally no downside. Instead I said what I was actually thinking which would put me in a worse sitaution if i am mafia.

  • Having written this paragraph it may be pure waffle and not make sense but it makes sense in my mind that I don’t see why mafia would protect each other in this format and you guys reading me/badeline as a pair is using normal mafia logic, not combinatroics logic.


Conclusion: Having said this I recognise I have once again goose’d all over the place and will need to be jailed again, and go with Badeline. To be clear I don’t see why I can’t be town and Badeline be mafia and don’t assume we are aligned, so checking us 2 is good.

Also i recommend reading my iso last game cuz im pretty sure the same thing happened last time and if anything I have been townier this game because I have tried way more.

I still think I was probably right D1 and ash is probably mafia and badeline probably town but checkers gonna check

Going for another 1/3 is so dumb btw, we should shoot in the existing 2 1/3s to get some clears or find pair.

Rereading my dome and Chomps has actually been way way less townier than I realised yesterday and I’m not convinced Fusion is lock scum.

In dome 2 i townread lee the most

I think chomps/fusion/prisma/badeline is 2, and we just need to find another obvs town in there to put remaining 3 and get a 2/3 (with 3 clears as a by product).

Regardless, we should just put people in the existing 2 domes together today.

VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: LittleLee
VOTE: Anonygoose

If it is a 1/3 it is more likely badeline

If a 0/3 then prisma outted. This is a good trio and catches a mafia.

Chomps (2): pandora, Chomps
Kanave (2): pandora, Chomps
Magnus (2): pandora, Chomps
Anonygoose (3): RedPandas, spookycat27, Anonygoose
Badeline (4): RedPandas, spookycat27, Badeline, Anonygoose
Ash (2): RedPandas, Badeline
Quail (1): spookycat27
RedPandas (1): Badeline
LittleLee (1): Anonygoose

Not Voting (6): Quail, LittleLee, Ash, Kanave, Magnus, FusionMoon314

And obviously it also confirms me unless it is a 1/3 and the team is me and prisma exactly.

Damn my arguments were so good thread died as mafia are all hiding