Omega Strikers FM - Saboteurs and Dissenter Win

[Era]

@Era

X has dropped off extremely and might be worth considering as well, though I think him holstering is >rand competitor… Thoughts?

X is a case of just… not really existing. I think Dubu has substantially improved and that his action is towny - meanwhile, X holstered and X has barely been posting. I know I made the accusation of Dubu being a polarized saboteur trying to coast yesterday - I take it back, I currently think he’s a competitor. That said, the description might apply to X…? I did have a competitor read on him early on, but the dropoff is notable. I feel the slot has been underdiscussed, so please engage with me about it as well…

[Era]

I am quite confident that Estelle, Atlas, Juno, and Luna are competitors, and I currently think Dubu is a competitor as well.

[Era]

@Era

Finally, the read on Ai.Mi. I take issue with the fact I’m her only significant push after a whole day and a part of another day. I think her reads are extremely inflexible and she is being unreasonably stubborn about wolfreading me. I suppose this could just be a tunnel, but she has barely given any other reads as of late… I’m not sure if a tunneling competitor approaches it that way. I’d expect more reads, on other players as well. Perhaps this is incorrect of me to assume, and I am naturally going to be biased because she’s been pushing me so much, so please discuss this read with me…

Her case on me today also just reiterates points from yesterday… it’s like her reads are not evolving.

@Ai.Mi

My initial reaction to SoD is Drekar is moving towards a more solid townread for me. I have seen this sort of stubbornness about mech before, in fact I’ve been the person with this sort of stubbornness about mech. I can’t recall it coming from a scum. It’s hard to fake.

It’s possible that Drekar is putting on a show here as an excuse to not fire, but I don’t see the big benefit for them as compared to just firing on a candidate who’s borderline poe town and just claiming it’s a hero shot. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if that had happened, and they could have gotten off without too much heat.

It’s also possible it’s a ploy to garner exactly this read. If it is, it’s a very well executed one, and I’m ok being fooled for now.

I feel like I’m starting to get them more the more they’re posting in the thread, and I think their thoughts have an internal consistency to them that’s checking all the right townie boxes for me.

And I think Ai.Mi’s handling of Drek’ar is potential TMI… I could see this either way (Drek’ar being a competitor or a saboteur), but Ai.Mi’s overall treatment of Drek’ar feels like she isn’t figuring out his alignment from his thought process, but rather from what she wants it to be…

@Ai.Mi

Why is anyone even voting Drekar? The guy just oozes arrogant townie

To me, this is a dismissal of other people’s concerns because Ai.Mi either already knows the right answer or it’s pro-her-alignment for her to dismiss the right answer.

[Era]

@Era

@Ai.Mi

Why is anyone even voting Drekar? The guy just oozes arrogant townie

To me, this is a dismissal of other people’s concerns because Ai.Mi either already knows the right answer or it’s pro-her-alignment for her to dismiss the right answer.

The confidence just seems unreasonable. That’s the main reason I believe this…

[Era]

@Era

The confidence just seems unreasonable.

This has nothing to do with Ai.Mi’s confidence as a player… more about the situation. I think there are plenty of good reasons to consider Drek’ar a saboteur, and it doesn’t feel like Ai.Mi gave them any thought…

I’m realizing I could be mistakenly considering this a saboteur action instead of it just being overconfidence. What do you think?

[X_OS (X)]

I think I’ve been going under the radar doing nothing as well tbh

I just haven’t really felt like me saying stuff would really add to the conversation or they have been already said. I think it’s partly because of the lack of info to work with. Usually I do get more involved and form a worldview the later in game it is when things are narrowed down and it’s easier to rule out pairs, and do solve better after the first scum flips but just hate forcing early reads when I’m actually clueless and don’t believe in them.

also wanted to note that do have one new thought: I think Rune’s recent posts look wayy better than they did D1 and the Atlas push is unlikely to come from scum since scum would probably expect not to succeed actually lynching Atlas while town!rune would genuinely believe they need to lynch him Atlas. I also think him townleaning me (I don’t think he ever said this D1) despite me being a PoE suspect who suspects him is townie.

[Era]

@X_OS

also wanted to note that do have one new thought: I think Rune’s recent posts look wayy better than they did D1 and the Atlas push is unlikely to come from scum since scum would probably expect not to succeed actually lynching Atlas while town!rune would genuinely believe they need to lynch him Atlas. I also think him townleaning me (I don’t think he ever said this D1) despite me being a PoE suspect who suspects him is townie.

I feel like it’s at least equally likely that he’s doing this because he feels forced to break up the tightening noose… With a strong and big towncore that is pure, the saboteurs can’t win. It could be that he recognized that and that’s why he is making those pushes, courageous as they may be…

@X_OS

I just haven’t really felt like me saying stuff would really add to the conversation or they have been already said. I think it’s partly because of the lack of info to work with. Usually I do get more involved and form a worldview the later in game it is when things are narrowed down and it’s easier to rule out pairs, and do solve better after the first scum flips but just hate forcing early reads when I’m actually clueless and don’t believe in them.

That’s fair enough, but it sounds like this setup isn’t for you, then. Also, you did give a bunch of early reads… were these forced?

@X_OS

Townreading Atlas Drekar and Juliette on vibe.

[X_OS (X)]

Luna townie for actually attempting NK analysis when Juliette wasn’t a threat to scum mech-wise

[X_OS (X)]

yeah… would not have joined if it wasn’t an invitational

Those reads were non-forced enough to want to post them at all lmao. By ‘forcing’ I mean acting confident when you haven’t fully made up your mind.

[Era]

@X_OS

also wanted to note that do have one new thought: I think Rune’s recent posts look wayy better than they did D1 and the Atlas push is unlikely to come from scum since scum would probably expect not to succeed actually lynching Atlas while town!rune would genuinely believe they need to lynch him Atlas. I also think him townleaning me (I don’t think he ever said this D1) despite me being a PoE suspect who suspects him is townie.

About that: do you think it’s generally competitor behavior to townread people suspecting you? This isn’t a loaded question.

[X_OS (X)]

In the context that I’m a viable suspect, he could have easily omgus’d me especially since I think my own reasons for suspecting him were bad. Literally ‘I don’t remember his posts’ I don’t think it’s neccessarily protown to townread people suspecting you as it has mixed results depending on the scumreadder’s actual alignment but would call it anti-wolf.

It’s different if person suspecting him was someone widely townread because he wouldn’t have the leverage to omgus

[Era]

Hm… okay, I think I get what you’re saying.

[Era]

Do you still think Atlas is town?

[Asher]

Votecount

Rune (3): Era, Luna, Dubu
Drekar (1): Juno
Juno (1): Drekar
Atlas_OS (1): Rune

Not Voting (4): Ai.Mi, Atlas_OS, Estelle, X

[X_OS (X)]

I do. and if I tinfoil anyone it’s estelle tbh

[Luna]

@ X do you have anything of a poe?

It’s fine if not, I’m not asking you to force reads, I’m trying to get a bead on where your head’s at

[Era]

Why is that?

[Dubu]

This is a post.

[Era]

[Dubu]

@Era

This message is brought to you post-post.