The confidence just seems unreasonable. That’s the main reason I believe this…
This has nothing to do with Ai.Mi’s confidence as a player… more about the situation. I think there are plenty of good reasons to consider Drek’ar a saboteur, and it doesn’t feel like Ai.Mi gave them any thought…
I’m realizing I could be mistakenly considering this a saboteur action instead of it just being overconfidence. What do you think?
I think I’ve been going under the radar doing nothing as well tbh
I just haven’t really felt like me saying stuff would really add to the conversation or they have been already said. I think it’s partly because of the lack of info to work with. Usually I do get more involved and form a worldview the later in game it is when things are narrowed down and it’s easier to rule out pairs, and do solve better after the first scum flips but just hate forcing early reads when I’m actually clueless and don’t believe in them.
also wanted to note that do have one new thought: I think Rune’s recent posts look wayy better than they did D1 and the Atlas push is unlikely to come from scum since scum would probably expect not to succeed actually lynching Atlas while town!rune would genuinely believe they need to lynch him Atlas. I also think him townleaning me (I don’t think he ever said this D1) despite me being a PoE suspect who suspects him is townie.
I feel like it’s at least equally likely that he’s doing this because he feels forced to break up the tightening noose… With a strong and big towncore that is pure, the saboteurs can’t win. It could be that he recognized that and that’s why he is making those pushes, courageous as they may be…
That’s fair enough, but it sounds like this setup isn’t for you, then. Also, you did give a bunch of early reads… were these forced?
Luna townie for actually attempting NK analysis when Juliette wasn’t a threat to scum mech-wise
yeah… would not have joined if it wasn’t an invitational
Those reads were non-forced enough to want to post them at all lmao. By ‘forcing’ I mean acting confident when you haven’t fully made up your mind.
About that: do you think it’s generally competitor behavior to townread people suspecting you? This isn’t a loaded question.
In the context that I’m a viable suspect, he could have easily omgus’d me especially since I think my own reasons for suspecting him were bad. Literally ‘I don’t remember his posts’ I don’t think it’s neccessarily protown to townread people suspecting you as it has mixed results depending on the scumreadder’s actual alignment but would call it anti-wolf.
It’s different if person suspecting him was someone widely townread because he wouldn’t have the leverage to omgus
Hm… okay, I think I get what you’re saying.
Do you still think Atlas is town?
Votecount
Rune (3): Era, Luna, Dubu
Drekar (1): Juno
Juno (1): Drekar
Atlas_OS (1): Rune
Not Voting (4): Ai.Mi, Atlas_OS, Estelle, X
I do. and if I tinfoil anyone it’s estelle tbh
@ X do you have anything of a poe?
It’s fine if not, I’m not asking you to force reads, I’m trying to get a bead on where your head’s at
Why is that?
This is a post.
This message is brought to you post-post.
For the person who said I was more deflated today they aren’t reading my posts.
I am less present because I have real life that I have stated in the past.
I have less than an hour right now but I will try to crack something out.
I don’t think anybody said that? Maybe I forgot.
The reason that I found Drek’ar town:
#32 #36 #42 #45 #47 #54 #56 #62 #64 #65
Here you have a collage of Drek’ar enjoying himself, obviously generally fooling around, and not taking anything in the thread too seriously. Simple opening stuff that isn’t town indicative as a whole, but sets the framework. We are looking at a player who is not caring a lot about the game yet, and throwing things around with no real intent to solve or control the flow of the thread.
Luna comes in and sees this, and that Luna/Atlas are the two names he’s fingered while fucking around, and he immediately attacks. I do not fault her for the move, but I had already clearly filed away his initial advances as being tomfoolery and I would read him later.
Then we have the pièce de résistance:
#71
This post is very amusing to me still as I immediately read it as a humour-based method to start pointing fingers. This is still the most serious we’ve seen Drek’ar so far. (It is not that serious.) It is taken as a serious take very quickly but part of the reason I read Drek’ar as a town around this point is purely the obvious amusement/humour he takes from the situation.
He’s not seriously trying to reverse being sussed, he’s instead having fun with it. This is not traditional saboteur play.
Then Drek’ar has a note of seriousness when Luna engages him, obviously not actually holding down a Luna scumread to his heart:
#81
This is what I had already stated for Era, reactive, not actively stirring. He correctly states that it’s far from a sealed case, but acknowledges it all the same.
#83
Then immediately has the exact same reaction as me at Ai.Mi’s odd question.
#84
(This is, in my mind, confirmation that most of the earlier content was tongue-in-cheek.)
#173
This is the second real solving post of Drek’ar, inquisitive in an accurate way and picking up on some things I hadn’t properly thought about. To be honest I gave this post too little credence early on but it’s quite possible Drek was onto something with this.
#189
Shows indignance at his own words being misconstrued, and immediately states the suspicion from that but acknowledges he needs to consider the cause.
#192
Doesn’t hold his own town reads to be so important as to ignore points, and after consideration of the post that made him angry, acknowledges the points.
This kind of awareness and reflection aren’t things often imitated by saboteurs because they’re not even widely town read and people often have to put effort into imitating it in a realistic fashion.
#196
Excitement to be voted in this specific situation is, amusingly enough, something I find somewhat competitor-like.
#205
GTH’s Era as a competitor, as seen in previous posts. This is just a culmination of previous points, easily enough done.
#209
Then a scant 4 posts later, hard reverses. This is perhaps the most competitor-like post in this entire thread. Drek’ar has shown the constant process in their reads and then ruins it all over a figure that is being defended. And also against thread flow when there wasn’t a target to “protect”?
This shows a complete lack of care about perception. Drek’ar doesn’t need to know if people follow his reads, nor does he need people to believe. He’s inputting his raw reactions to his reads and showing a process that is so very like a competitor that I cannot see otherwise.
It would take a high high-level saboteur to effectively fake this. And more importantly, it would take a saboteur that had already worked out that someone in the crowd was watching for that exact sort of competitor action. This isn’t something a lot of players look for, which is why saboteurs don’t traditionally try to force it unless they’re specifically aware of their audience.
Were they aware of their audience here? Unlikely.
For the rest of D1 they grill/attack Era a lot, dislike the Kai wagon (which I understand their reasoning for), and proceed to press for Juno. They have a stated town read on Rune.
None of this breaks the understanding I have built of their character, nor my appreciation for the flow of how they’re playing this League.
Their lack of shot I do dislike, but despite disagreeing on the mech here I can see what they’re trying to say and what they were trying to do. I do believe that fear of an unused shot is definitely pressure for saboteurs that has no other way of existing.
Also, N1 is both the best and worst as there are more incorrect targets to hit.
I did not believe Drek’ar is saboteur then.
I do not believe Drek’ar is saboteur now.