Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

no
i used to have a lean on you but i decided it was stupid

[Arctic]

what about the vulgard toneread
or did you decide that was stupid too

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

yes

[Arctic]

i might’ve lost a chromosome from this conversation

i’m going to bed

[Lemonfairy]

Kanave/Nokiel world likelihood

Kanave on Nokiel

@Nokiel

Ok, gimme a minute.

@Kanave

this entire post is super hedgy, and kinda incongruent with itself. Like it answers the questions without actually taking a real poisition on any of them

@Nokiel

I’m still unsure about Bean, but less sure than at the VC. I think it’s not unlikely that all wagons were villagers

@Kanave

could just be poor wording but “not unlikely that all wagons were villagers” is just dodging the question, they’re not taking a hard stance at all.

@Nokiel

I’m unsure. I feel like I can’t find a pairing where interactions are odd (haven’t looked at the thread with this perspective yet).

@Kanave

and here again, they don’t actually take a stance on anything, they’re just trying to answer the questions without doing anything that could get them pegged as a wolf

Vul: so i take it you think they’re mafia?

@Kanave

I’d def lean that way; its possible to read them as a towny who is really lacking confidence but at this point i’d rather them actually make a position, if they have thoughts why wouldn’t they be sharing them

@Kanave

Nokiel still hasn’t taken any hard stances

@Nokiel

Another general flag I got from the old format, which I’m wondering if it’s very applicable off of what others have said is that very decisive pushes are generally people trying to abuse the knee-jerk habit of sheeping in order to win as wolf. But from what I’ve gathered, this barely applies here?

@Kanave

I find this interesting given how Nokiel has been playing all game, she said pretty early on that Decisive pushes are generally wolfy and has indecisive all game, feels like shes playing into the meta that she herself is calling towny

@Kanave

Are ethier of Beancat or Noki around for eod

@Kanave

VOTE: Kanave

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

Nokiel on Kanave

@Nokiel

Eliza has just started producing something to look into later, Vul has been someone who has had me on edge (but that’s likely for being played by loud players in old format), Lemon is a slot that I have had issues getting anything out of. I think I want to try to find content from them. (After Kanave, who’s been lowposting a lot)

@Nokiel

Honestly, rn your slot is the one I’m not thinking about much. I’m more curious about Kanave and Bean. But with what Vul outlined I am unsure if I want to pursue Bean, and Eliza is someone I’ve been on most of the game

@Nokiel

Kanave - Null, Lack of content, waiting for some content.

Kanave: this entire post is super hedgy, and kinda incongruent with itself. Like it answers the questions without actually taking a real poisition on any of them

@Nokiel

I’m worried about taking a position right now, because I feel like my thoughts don’t give me enough material to make any decisions about people. I have some townreads and leans, but I’m mostly unsure who I scumread. I don’t want to scumread someone unless I’m sure of my read and actually believe it.

@Nokiel

Kanave is a slot that I also found off, but after just now reviewing ISO, I feel like it’s just the lowposting and D1 that has me finding them off.

Then again, their activity might be reactionary to D1. Especially the big flip and revival spiel. From a wolf perspective it doesn’t feel very good to draw so much attention to oneself, but D2 sees a lot of pressure and eyes on Kanave anyway.

@Nokiel

My town right now contains everyone except Kanave, Eliza and Vul.

Kanave is the one I Scumread most, Eliza is Scumlean and Vul is more nulltown/null.

VOTE: Kanave

[May]

@Arctic

@May

Hi. I woke up very late and I have stuff to do today but either Nokiel/Kanave contains a wolf or it’s Vulgard + Eliza I think.

it’s not impossible. but i feel like lemon is maybe more likely than vulgard as far as how villagery each player has been.

Yeah, but I think that Vulgard is the most likely to be paired with someone outside Nokiel/Kanave, which is what I’m saying. I don’t think Lemon and Vulgard are W/W (or maybe I just hope they’re not), and I think you’re town.

With the way things have gone, there’s a pretty clear distinction between the “active”, townread slots, and the ones people are going for to vote. Nokiel and Kanave are the ones who were wagons yesterday, and they’re the ones I worry we’ll lose the game voting out if we’re town, which is why I made that post - I want to look for evidence that they’re V/V, and because of how I’ve narrowed things down, that means evidence that Vulgard/Eliza are W/W. I don’t think Lemon is entirely clear, but I think the worlds where she’s wolf most likely include one of our two suspects here, and therefore aren’t an instalose if we end up voting them both out.

@Arctic

@May

Arctic is town and I knew this from hour one D1 but I kept doubting myself about it that’s my fault. I wanted to explain away his behavior as a wolf doing something weird on purpose but it is pretty blatantly genuine and if he has this level of awareness of his town mindset as wolf he was just not employing it at all in B&F and I’m happy to let my reads sit on a foundation of “people don’t throw”.

well now i’m going to have to put in extra effort into shaking up my wolf meta. if you’re town then you’ve done a pretty good job making reading me look like a cakewalk and i don’t like it

i would also say sometimes it’s not about whether i can or can’t put on a town mindset as a wolf… it’s more about whether or not i want to. you have to consider that my objective is to miseliminate X villagers as a wolf, and i often prefer to go about this in a way that puts me in the limelight instead of my teammates because i trust myself more to weasel my way out of dying. obviously i try to get townread to an extent but it’s not really my main objective. as town i actually have to, uh, solve the game and this probably comes across in my lessened confidence and the way that i’m not trying to force through certain kills because i don’t know what is the correct play to benefit my team

Well, I mean, given I went back and forth about you during D2, it’s not as much of a cakewalk as I’m making it seem, but it’s not even about your behavior on kills. That’s why I said “hour one day one” - at the start of this game, you had this really clear sort of buzz of… anxiety around you, I guess. You were hard on yourself when you didn’t realize my Eliza vote was a reaction test. You used the words “ehh” and “I guess” a lot. More question marks. You reacted very strongly to minor suspicion on D2. It’s a read of your emotional state first and foremost. Honestly, (as long as I’m right on this read), I think the solution is to be more confident as town, though that’s easier said than done.

@Arctic

@May

Lemon’s been townie all game and had absolutely no motivation to argue so hard for Kanave’s execution as scum unless she’s wolf with Nokiel and was trying to funnel all counterwagon energy toward Kanave instead. If Nokiel is V then Lemon is probably town.

this is what i was thinking about earlier when i expected lemon to get poisoned, because her eod was villagery regardless of nokiel’s alignment imo. lemon did a similar thing as town last game on day 2 when the counterwagon (me) was actually a wolf, so even if nokiel is a wolf i don’t think trying to cfd makes sense here for wolf lemon, because the easy solution is to just let town beancat die and trying to get people to move around could have caused split wagons and resulted in a wolf!nokiel dying. and if nokiel is town, trying to cfd a third player with v/v wagons is again weird for a wolf to do when it would get them suspected the next day if kanave is town, and… it could technically be a buss if kanave is a wolf but this is a really dumb world i don’t really want to believe

Yeah, I agree with everything you’re saying here, though I don’t think Jar was a bad choice regardless, since I don’t think any of us were wolfreading him. It’s still a shake-up, though, and something I should probably be reading more into than I currently am - my immediate instinct was that Lemon would be wolfread for that EoD and so I didn’t think of her as a poison target, but the fact that that’s not happened means I should prooobably re-evaluate.

@Arctic

actually, i remember at the start of the game vulgard asked eliza to vote me with him, that’s probably not w/w?

@Arctic

@May

I’ve seen from both sides him W/W with Eliza

@May

I think her being wolf with Vulgard would explain why the votes and kills have been Like This

could you elaborate on these points

Case time, then.

@Vulgard

you literally just pushed eliza for the same thing, in the same timeframe, for almost exactly the same reason, as town in the previous game you played with her
this is obviously a fake push but you didn’t even try to make this look good smh

I make fake pushes as town all the time on D1, because they’re the only way to get the game going. Vulgard knows this. He saw the exact same thing last time. So, if he realized it was a reaction test, I don’t get why he’d call it out as a bad case… he knows that I know that he knows… unless he was trying to avoid looking like he was ignoring a case on a partner.

In my experience, wolves hate looking like they’re ignoring their partners. Make garbage pushes that appear to carry little weight, ones they don’t think they’ll be stuck on by EoD, and they will react much more than townies will, or even that they as wolves would a push on a townie. I think that’s why w!Vulgard immediately moves to call this out.

@Vulgard

@ElizaThePsycho

this is wolf arctic

why are you on may then
join me

@Vulgard

oh i read the votecount the other way around, it’s may who is on you
my bad

@Vulgard

eliza why are you always so wolfy

This seems potentially W/W to me!! This is a superficial interaction that is easy to fake!! I don’t think it’s definitive, because I still don’t think I have enough evidence to know who the wolfteam are (and it’s not as if this thread is an endless fountain of it by any means :frogge:), but I don’t think it’s nearly enough to discard them as possible partners as you are, Arctic.

@Vulgard

@ElizaThePsycho

this guy is ALSO wolf
VOTE: Jar

this doesn’t compute to me
do you think jar’s partner didn’t tell them this game existed in this thread? or do you think wolves are both inactives

or are you trying to argue jar’s partner told them now the game was happening here

Objective read.

@Vulgard

@Jar

a host account told me that the game is happening here and directed me to this thread or chat

@Jar

they are accusing me of being mafia because i think mafias here normally use the tactic of calling themselves a new player

@ElizaThePsycho bruh this is always town what are you on

His tone changes here. It feels like he’s trying to seem too natural talking to her.

@Vulgard

@ElizaThePsycho

it’s probably the part where he’s typing lowercase but
I remember recently he was wolf and his tone was really… robotic.

oh in that sense i change tones all the time
haven’t really found one that i think expresses me best but with this one i feel like it’s the easiest for me to post thoughts

Eliza notices this change in tone, the kind of thing I don’t see her call out a lot, and then calls it out - like she’s hyperaware of his actions.

@Vulgard

the funniest part is that eliza has seen me type in all kinds of ways as different alignments

And then Vulgard notices that her calling this out is unnatural!! It feels like they’re thinking way too much about how they’re treating each other in thread, and that’s coming across in their posts.

@Vulgard

i’m not sure why you find my tone robotic when i think i’ve been pretty transparent this entire game to the point i’ve openly called my thoughts dumb

@Vulgard

why did you like this explanation if you think it makes no sense

@Vulgard

you gave me a like for explaining then told me it didn’t make sense
if it didn’t make sense why did you give it a like

@Vulgard

do you like people

@Vulgard

any townreads then

Blah blah blah weirdtyping weirdposting badposting. Susamongus. I’m out of normal melatonin and all I have left is the terrible strawberry-flavored dissolve tablets I forget why I bought in the first place and I hate it sooo much it tastes sooooo bad but I don’t. Wanna go to the store to pick up more. That’s so effort. And I keep forgetting it when I’m already there. So now I have to eat the bad strawberry flavored stuff or I can’t sleep. I tried to stop taking melatonin altogether and even over weeks my sleep schedule just completely trended toward Not During The Night so I think that’s just. How I naturally am. Anyway

@Vulgard

i frankly liked kanave’s posts about eliza
when she’s actually here her content has been better recently she’s just weirdly Not Here recently when she’s typically an active player as town

He pingpongs back and forth on Eliza a lot. Sussing her, but never committing enough to vote. That’s what drew my eye to them as partners in the first place - most of the tone stuff is secondary, and noticed after-the-fact.

@Vulgard

i’m also liking nokiel’s posts more and eliza’s less

@Vulgard

if i were to die right now i’d say beancat/eliza

Eliza’s second. Always second. Gives him an excuse to drop the read if need be once Beancat flips town.

@Vulgard

i think nokiel is the most towny player in the eliza/beancat/kanave/nokiel quartet and i don’t like beancat trying to get them killed now after townreading them on day 1

kanave also has a point about eliza that i somewhat agree with which is why i dropped her here

Pushing his read of Eliza onto villagers, too, like he’s putting extra effort into making it look natural.

@Vulgard

the rest:

beancat (pretty bad posting overall, lots of excuses, the votecount push feels like agenda, she did that thing several times where she presented two players in a post and called one towny and the other scummy but it feels like she’s just trying to manipulate the thread with this; now that i’m typing this out i see beancat trying to push nokiel but that’s completely incongruent with how beancat tends to be paranoid of high-posting and high-influence players, which nokiel is not, just feels like an ml wolves would want to get; beancat does try to push on lemonfairy but is very conciliatory toward me and arctic this game, which isn’t how i interpret her towngame; also note the fact beancat was townreading nokiel in p#312 for the push on her but is now pushing them, i feel like beancat wants to turn that and lemonfairy into mls because if poe of kanave/nokiel/beancat/eliza is correct then wolves need one more villager in the poe to win)

eliza (push on aelin looks towny on the surface but re-reading it and then reading kanave’s case on it made me feel like kanave has a point, this push basically looks like she’s just arguing with aelin because aelin is wolfreading her and she presumably wants aelin to die that eod, also her reads seem really static - she moves from person to person and kinda just stops evaluating the previous player every time, just zeroes in on people that look pushable: first arctic, then jar (and quickly backs off when i defend them), then aelin, now me (but has completely stopped trying upon realizing i’m unpushable today)

@Vulgard

i have noted that people eliza’s pushing keep getting poisoned so i doubt eliza is on the wolfteam lol

@Vulgard

by “keep getting poisoned” i mean that it happened once

He makes this note very early in the day, almost like he and Eliza chose to poison Jar for this reason, and then corrects himself immediately. Wolves looove to correct themselves. Zorvo did it in Starcraft constantly, correction this, correction that, they notice they posted something that seems wolfy and haveeee to go “oh actually”. Because they’re reading back their own posts more than any townie ever would.

And from Eliza’s end:

@ElizaThePsycho

in conclusion
her read on me has no reason to be this confident
she has no reason to TR vulgard , and in fact has expressed scumreads, nor does she have reason to TR arctic outside of this one “arctic/may interaction is kinda good” thing, which does not justify putting arctic in the same tier as yourself

Main thing that made me note “from both ends” - she has more awareness of Vulgard’s positioning in the list than she shout, and then she links it to Arctic hastily afterward. Again, I’ve seen this one before - wolves call out your bad townreads of their buddies. They don’t necessarily scumread them themselves, they just go “huh, interesting, weird, you don’t really have justification for that, do you?”, which seems exactly like what Eliza is doing.

@ElizaThePsycho

lowkey considering going after vul or arctic because they’re both alive

Two at once. Always two at once. She never brings up Vulgard on his own, it’s always in tandem with you.

Okay I’m bored that’s enough case for now. I feel more strongly about it than I did before making this post - learn by arguing, I guess - and now I thiiiink I want an execution in this pair for today to prove or disprove this world, but this is also. Very narratively similar to GOAT^2 for my tastes. So. Do let me know if this is bad and sucks

[May]

Oops Arctic went to bed. Well given it’s also about time for me to go to bed that makes a lot of sense (I will not I will be up for five more hours though)

[May]

Wowww. Hiding your quotewalls behind readmores like you’re politer and more considerate of others than me. Unbelievable

[Lemonfairy]

I can kind of see the w/w people are talking about with Kanave/Nokiel when looking at Kanave’s posts about Nokiel. Kanave repeatedly says Nokiel is hedgy and/or not taking a stance but when Vul asks Kanave if they think Nokiel is mafia, they give the kind of non-answer they scumread Nokiel for:

@Kanave

I’d def lean that way; its possible to read them as a towny who is really lacking confidence but at this point i’d rather them actually make a position, if they have thoughts why wouldn’t they be sharing them

Kanave says they SL Nokiel but the rest of the post suggests they’re treating Nokiel like town, which doesn’t match up with what they explicitly say.

I think this could be Kanave having TMI about Nokiel but still actively shading them.

Then Kanave kind of just continues to mention how Nokiel hasn’t taken any “hard stances”.

@Kanave

I find this interesting given how Nokiel has been playing all game, she said pretty early on that Decisive pushes are generally wolfy and has indecisive all game, feels like shes playing into the meta that she herself is calling towny

I think ^this post is probably not w/w with Kanave. It honestly looks more like Kanave is just throwing shade than distancing. This matches up with their behaviour at EOD, where they jump on Kanave (who had 2 votes) rather than the wagon going down (bean, who had 4 votes).

[Lemonfairy]

it’s more for my own convenience tbh

actually, I made a bunch of quotewalls in another game a while back and I didn’t spoiler them because I wanted people to read them (I said so in thread) and someone straight up told me that they weren’t going read them anyway and then voted me

they were scum though

[May]

Wasn’t I there for that? I feel like I remember that. The first part, at least. Anyway I haven’t read your quotewalls sorry I’m busy cause my head is full of bees

[Lemonfairy]

you weren’t there
it was on a different site

[Lemonfairy]

maybe you were there in spirit

[May]

Maybe I’ve been following you around and you just don’t know it. This is why I have a username that’s impossible to Google

[Kanave]

@Arctic

@Kanave @Nokiel if you guys are town you need to show it today

pinging me with this like i didn’t literally post more in the 12h after saying id start postingthan the entire rest of the game while you acted like that was fake the whole day is really nagl

[Kanave]

@Nokiel

I don’t think I’m changing my mind on the ones I TR, most of them seem like they’re too focused on solving to wolfread (pushing the game faster than I think a wolf would be comfortable).

Seeing as most of them are solving into you, and have gotten 2 misexes, it doesn’t give you any pause that the solves are leading to townies dying?

[Kanave]

@Arctic

@Kanave if you are town then there is something going very wrong here and i would like to know what you think it is when you get here.

I mean the two possibilities here are that its jsut Eliza/Noki and we win the game even after misliming me or that there’s a wolf in the players who are pretty universally townread; in which case my gut would say one of You/Vul/Lemon

once i finish catching up imma reread the people who we’ve been celaring looking for exactly that

[Kanave]

@Lemonfairy

@Kanave

VOTE: Kanave

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

holy shit you did not just actually take me self-voting then revoting noki (the first time with a typo) and paste it in here to make it look like i’ve been interacting with them more than i have, what the fuck is that

[Kanave]

@May

Yeah, I agree with everything you’re saying here, though I don’t think Jar was a bad choice regardless, since I don’t think any of us were wolfreading him.

At one point Arctic questioned my TR on them; but def not a wolf read.

[Kanave]

sorry that was too agressive; its possible you just searched my iso for every mention of their name but including those is super misleading