Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

that doesn’t discredit the rest of their reads

[ElizaThePsycho (Willow)]

also I still can’t explain my gutread on you so I just renscind it

[Arctic]

@Vulgard

now that i’m typing this out i see beancat trying to push nokiel but that’s completely incongruent with how beancat tends to be paranoid of high-posting and high-influence players, which nokiel is not, just feels like an ml wolves would want to get; beancat does try to push on lemonfairy but is very conciliatory toward me and arctic this game, which isn’t how i interpret her towngame

he kind of has a point
it’s weird that bean has kind of mostly ignored vulgard - i’m pretty sure one of her towntells is tunneling him on day 1 regardless of his alignment, and i know this is a bad standard to hold someone to so that’s not the point i’m making here, it’s more a case of i would have expected a town bean to be looking at vulgard more closely here than they have been this game

@beancat

@Vulgard

@beancat what is your read on me

N/A, I usually can’t read you
Your aelin push wasn’t horrible given when it was, and my only other recollection of you is you having way too much certainty in your reads which is something ive seen anyway

this also kind of feels like gibberish because there was no aelin push from vulgard, it was just a vote
and i’d expect something more than just the talk about confidence given he has 150 posts

[Arctic]

this is probably a step too far but as an example i would have expected beancat to make a read along the lines of “vulgard/arctic are powerwolfing and just pushing low posters” because our poe kind of is literally just the lowposters

[Lemonfairy]

hi friends and enemies
lemon is back

[Lemonfairy]

it’s so freaking cold today

[Kanave]

hi just woke up back reading

[Kanave]

@Jar

How is the first quote nonsense? Even the one i am suspecting says it is valid.

the nonsense was mainly the last one, the first two are fine;

[Kanave]

Scum motivation is the reason that you would make a post as wolf
ie: scum motiviation to accuse someone is generally to try to get them miselim’d

[Lemonfairy]

@May

I don’t have any solid conclusions at this point, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee that they’re all villagers, especially given how my Aelin case kinda… hung around?

well, Vul was asleep probably and I pretty much agreed to your case and thought Aelin could be a hit so I stayed there
Eliza was scumreading Aelin too and honestly her case was pretty convincing too
I feel like the people voting Aelin all look pretty towny - if I had to name someone who’d most likely be wolf I’d probably say Vul but I don’t really want to tinfoil this early

@May

On this votecount, I think it heavily depends on the alignment of Beancat and Arctic - if these were V/V, there were basically no bad answers for them, except maybe hopping on Aelin last-minute? That would draw unnecessary attention.

I do kind of the wagons might be v/v/v now, actually
not because I beancat has been particularly towny in any way
but the wagons were stale at EOD

also, the only partner I can see beancat with according to wagons is like Eliza and I townread Eliza
actually, it could be you/Vul too but I townread you both

hold on

Aelin (4): May, Vulgard, Lemonfairy, ElizaThePsycho
beancat (3): Arctic, Nokiel, Aelin
Arctic (2): beancat, Kanave

Not Voting (2): Jar, Whysper

hmmmm
idk how I feel about this hypothetical LHF scumteam

@May

If there’s a wolf being voted, obviously that changes, and I think the last-minute Aelin votes (so you and Eliza) would be more suspect, as would Jar’s lack of a vote.

my vote and Eliza’s vote were anything but last minute
we were last, sure, but not last minute
there was a good chunk of time before EOD when we placed our votes

@May

in which case I’d look at Nokiel and Kanave, placing pretty ineffective votes because they don’t care who dies

I think Nokiel is significantly townier than Kanave
I can’t really see them as a team either

@May

I still think Arctic’s alignment teaches us a decent amount about the game

…are you saying Arctic would be a good information exe?

[Lemonfairy]

hi, do you have reads?

[Host_Account_1]

beancat (3): Whysper, May, Vulgard
Lemonfairy (1): beancat
ElizaThePsycho (1): Nokiel
Vulgard (1): Jar
Nokiel (1): Arctic

Not Voting (3): ElizaThePsycho, Kanave, Lemonfairy

Day ends 2022-12-01T04:00:00Z

[Lemonfairy]

@Nokiel

I’m still unsure about Bean, but less sure than at the VC. I think it’s not unlikely that all wagons were villagers

that’s such a non-answer

@Nokiel

I agree that the sudden amount of votes on Aelin at EoD was a bit suspicious. I think it’s not weird for wolves to just hop on the wagon being discussed at that moment, that time being Aelin’s.

so people who hopped on the Aelin wagon later?

@Nokiel

I’m unsure. I feel like I can’t find a pairing where interactions are odd (haven’t looked at the thread with this perspective yet).

just drop some names, it’s ok even if you’re not sure
but yeah, looking at interactions and/or team equity between people you scumread is a good idea

@Nokiel

I think it’s biased from what I’ve been reading and having been pressured by them before, but I still find Vul a bit uncomfortable, but can’t elaborate on how, hence why I think it’s rooted in bias.

one way to see if you’re just biased or biased and right is to see if they can be partnered with someone from their interactions
if they are blatantly unpartnered with literally everyone, then that means you’re probably just biased and tunneled

this takes a lot of time though so I don’t really bother until more people have died off

[Arctic]

@Lemonfairy

I can’t really see them as a team either

i can tbh
kanave’s posts about nokiel looked like distancing to me

@Lemonfairy

…are you saying Arctic would be a good information exe?

yes

[Lemonfairy]

@Nokiel

Ah, I barely answered Q2. I do think wolves would likely be on Aelin, but it feels incongruous with my thoughts on the voters. I think May is town, I think my suspicion on Vul isn’t valid, I think you have seemed towny and Eliza is someone I feel like I’ve focused on more out of not understanding how they play than something concrete

yeah, that’s pretty close to where I’m at

[Lemonfairy]

@Arctic

i can tbh
kanave’s posts about nokiel looked like distancing to me

which ones?

[Arctic]

@Kanave

this entire post is super hedgy, and kinda incongruent with itself. Like it answers the questions without actually taking a real poisition on any of them

starting from here

explanation:

@Arctic

it’s possible that in a kanave/nokiel team, kanave saw that people were closing in on them which is why their posts suspecting nokiel seemingly came out of nowhere - like except the post which (admittedly correctly) anti-solves the IC, their first relevant content post today is the callout of nokiel’s response to lemon’s questions. the motion doesn’t really feel natural, like i don’t really understand why that’s the first thing a villager would do today. there’s no reflection on the the aelin flip or anything else that happened yesterday, no reflection on the poison. the focus feels artificial and wolfy regardless of nokiel’s alignment but i’m trying to figure out whether it’s likely to be w/w or w/v, but the timing would honestly make me lean towards the former

[Lemonfairy]

@Nokiel

I have some townreads and leans, but I’m mostly unsure who I scumread. I don’t want to scumread someone unless I’m sure of my read and actually believe it.

what you do is
you townread people
and then kill the rest

the tried and tested POE method

but seriously, I also find it much easier to identify town than scum and usually when I do this, my accuracy tends to be higher (because otherwise I would tunnel too hard)

[Lemonfairy]

@Arctic

starting from here

oh I’m starting to read this part right now

[Lemonfairy]

yeah, it does look kinda of weird with Kanave just kind of talking about Nokiel and not directly to them
I think Nokiel’s answer was ok though - it’s honestly a decent response for a newbie to someone pushing them

like, it just kind of looks like Nokiel is trying to explain themselves?
idk if scum!Nokiel would react to scumpartner!Kanave pushing them like this