Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[Arctic]

yeah vulgard is never with kanave. not changing my mind on this, i think. sorry if wrong.

[Arctic]

don’t think vulgard/lemonfairy works either. vulgard had a post where she accused bean going after lemon being them trying to play for MLs, usually when these accusations are made by wolves it’s when villagers are pushing on each other so i think it’s more likely to be TMI on lemon v if vulgard is a wolf.

[Arctic]

actually he said the same thing about nokiel, disregard maybe

[Nokiel]

@Vulgard

Lemonfairy (read her iso again and i think she’s been pretty towny, first person here i would reconsider later down the line if necessary but for now i feel comfortable; i particularly like the way she’s evaluating slots that people have suspected, like arctic and nokiel, and ready to present contrarian takes on them, like the early tr on arctic)

Are your thoughts on this still the same, Vul?

I can’t find anything that I can point to regarding Vul, they stated early in the game that they aren’t as confident as town and I feel like they’ve projected confidence all game, but that is literally all I feel like I can surely believe in and that does not hold up.

Kanave’s ISO looks like they haven’t really had interactions with others, rather responses and comments on others, which feels very lone wolfy, which means I can’t really find a pairing here with Kanave and someone else.

Lemon at face value has been very conversational and has made some content unprompted, most recently scumreading Kanave for not making much content on their own, and when they have, only as a reaction to someone else. I find Lemon’s SoD questions having a motivation to produce content and demand content from other players, so I do kind of TR them, but I keep seeing this Vul/Lemon pairing thrown around.

If Lemon were Mafia, the questions could be explained as an attempt to make others produce specific content that partner can then SR them for. Also SRing Kanave for being very reactional, which I’ve also become, due to pressure… Kanave has been wolfy, but there is no pairing that I see here.

God, I’m TRing Kanave because I can’t find a scumpartner that isn’t me, knowing I’m town. This feels weird.

I’m honestly wondering about Vul/Lemon, does that pairing make any sense? I can’t see a Kanave pairing, Arc is IC, I know my own town alignment and May is…

Silly, I like it. A lot of pressure to solve (which is fakable I guess). Reused strategy, (which Vul pressed them on (But I can’t recall Vul ever voting May)) Misreads, not sure if this is useful. I had the suicidal EoD because May wanted to narrow the possible worlds with my exe, I feel like that would be very scary for a wolf to do if they were aware of how many fewer worlds there would be.

Still feel like Vul/Lemon is the pairing I’m most interested in

[Nokiel]

Taking a break, will be back later

[Arctic]

@Nokiel

but I keep seeing this Vul/Lemon pairing thrown around.

where is this being thrown around?

[Arctic]

lol it probably is lemonfairy and vulgard

[Arctic]

Summary

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

you literally just pushed eliza for the same thing, in the same timeframe, for almost exactly the same reason, as town in the previous game you played with her

this is obviously a fake push but you didn’t even try to make this look good smh

do you think it’s towny?
ik Arctic was saying the boldness makes it less likely to come from scum but I can’t really see it

@Lemonfairy

this better not be a pocket because I am very susceptible to being pocketed

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

VOTE: Arctic

??

@Vulgard

anyway let’s kill arctic and go to day 2

??

@Vulgard

i feel like it’s pretty obvious he’s posting to be townread and that’s why he forced out the beancat questioning, the suspicion on may, and the conversation with lemonfairy

nothing he’s done so far feels very natural from him

ok fair
what do you think about his flip on May after realizing what they did could have been an RT?
I kind of townread that

@Lemonfairy

Vulgard - I’m slightly paranoid of
the townread on me kinda came on very strongly and it’s from my initial question asking if Arctic is scum so it kind of feels like Vul could be pocketing me while pushing Arctic and now I’m more than slightly paranoid
the reasons were also kind of idk, the confidence didn’t really match up

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

arctic is being relatable now oh no

idk why but posts like this by Vul makes me townread them

@Lemonfairy

ok let me get my reads together

town
May
Arctic
Vul
Nokiel

Eliza
Jar
Whysper

Aelin
Kanave

@Lemonfairy

• idk probably like 45%?
• if wolf, maybe beancat? if town idk
• Aelin wagon looks pretty good. Wolves probably on Arctic/Eliza/not voting. I don’t think wolves have the luxury to bus this game unless it’s clear one of them is going over.
• Probably Arctic/Vul but I hope it’s me because I’m getting a lot of townreads and I really want to get NK’d N1

@Lemonfairy

@Jar

Vulgard - as for me I can never be so sure of anyone being a wolf in the first round but here he has almost declared lemonfairy is town. Whenever I am mafia I sometimes just call someone who is chatting(posting in this case) innocent out of the blue. I believe I gain trust by performing such action.

Actually, Vulgard has probably earned more suspicion from calling me town than anything

@Lemonfairy

think this back and forth between Vul and Arctic (which also was happening D1) make them not w/w

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

i think her commentary at start of day was something that she didn’t come in with predetermined

which she would have were she a wolf

I can’t really see this

let me grab it

@beancat

huh

that’s a curious choice

still can’t see it

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

jar’s response is just really blunt like he doesn’t have awareness of arctic trying to do theater with him

i guess i could explain it that way

I kind of see this though

@Lemonfairy

wait, what part of what Vul said about bean made you not want to pursue them?
b/c the reason I read was a little

@Lemonfairy

ok all caught up

Whysper

Vul
May
Arctic
Eliza

Nokiel
Jar

bean
Kanave

(???)

@Lemonfairy

@May

I don’t have any solid conclusions at this point, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee that they’re all villagers, especially given how my Aelin case kinda… hung around?

well, Vul was asleep probably and I pretty much agreed to your case and thought Aelin could be a hit so I stayed there
Eliza was scumreading Aelin too and honestly her case was pretty convincing too
I feel like the people voting Aelin all look pretty towny - if I had to name someone who’d most likely be wolf I’d probably say Vul but I don’t really want to tinfoil this early

(???)

@Lemonfairy

@Vulgard

on a wagon or not voting

@Lemonfairy

Vulgard - I don’t really get the same sense of solvy-ness from Vulgard as I have before. Like, a lot of the posts I see this phase have not uhh vibed as well with me? Fwiw, Vulgard has been townier than a lot of people - this towny-ness I found shone through the most when were talking to Arctic in early game - but their recent posts have just not been hitting.

@Lemonfairy

ok so maybe I have to look at Kanave/Eliza and Eliza/Nokiel
and maybe Vul too

@Lemonfairy

idk who Vul would even partner with??

@Lemonfairy

yeah, I wasn’t sure about that because I read Arctic’s Vul/Eliza post before and I kind of agreed with the conclusion even though the reason I got there is different from Arctic’s

@Lemonfairy

ok I just read May’s post again b/c I did kind of skim it the first time don’t sue me
it’s a lot more detailed expansive than I remembered

I can kind of see it honestly
the thing that would hold me back from not seeing it would be my own reason for regarding their interaction as not w/w, which is the whole interaction between Vul/Eliza talking about Eliza liking Vul’s post while not actually liking it and then Vul saying they lost brain cells from the conversation

now that I’m typing it out, the reason sounds dumber than I think it is

@May any thoughts on this?

@Lemonfairy

I would tinfoil May/Vulgard harder and maybe just re-eval everyone

@Lemonfairy

I haven’t looked into it but off the top of my head, maybe?
I don’t think I remember Vul pushing Nokiel

oh no they did but then they swung to voting with Nokiel on you
that’s about all I remember

@Lemonfairy

I kind of think it could be Eliza/Vul?

[Arctic]

Summary

@Vulgard

@Lemonfairy

Arctic are you wolf this game?

first townread of the game, that was easy

@Vulgard

lemonfairy is such an obvious villager actually holy shit
never kill her this game

@Vulgard

@Lemonfairy

see, I am also a bad villager

disagree

@Lemonfairy

and I’m scared to keep continuing to town it up harder with every game because at some point, my wolf game will just be incredibly obvious if I’m not able to match that level of attempting to solve as a wolf

but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there ig

relatable

@Vulgard

i feel like it’s pretty obvious he’s posting to be townread and that’s why he forced out the beancat questioning, the suspicion on may, and the conversation with lemonfairy

nothing he’s done so far feels very natural from him

@Vulgard

@Whysper

Yeah, this is giving me flashbacks of a game where he treated Appel like this, and she turned out to be a wolf

revisit this post if lemonfairy is a wolf maybe
not too sure about the connection but i’m always suspicious of such responses to early-game pushes

@Vulgard

arctic, jar and lemonfairy are my easy townreads
if i’m wrong on lemonfairy that will be embarrassing but also funny so i’m ok with continuing

@Vulgard

i just think lemonfairy is genuinely trying to process the game and has a lot of comfort in posting when i agree with her in that she’d probably be more careful and having less fun as mafia

i know it’s self-meta but i believe it and i also believe it applies here

@Vulgard

@Whysper

Anyway, I was just saying that the confidence in a town read on Lemon was giving me flashbacks to that game. So if anything as far as thoughts for this game, more like if you are town, then I’m worried that you won’t re-evaluate Lemon if it came down to that.

idk i think she’s really towny so far but i’d always re-evaluate everyone if it came to that because it tends to be necessary so don’t worry about that part

@Vulgard

@Lemonfairy

where are wolves most likely to be on this VC?

on a wagon or not voting

@Vulgard

Lemonfairy (read her iso again and i think she’s been pretty towny, first person here i would reconsider later down the line if necessary but for now i feel comfortable; i particularly like the way she’s evaluating slots that people have suspected, like arctic and nokiel, and ready to present contrarian takes on them, like the early tr on arctic)

@Vulgard

if you mean why i thought she was super towny back then specifically it was because i found the way she engaged in her discussion with arctic v towny

@Vulgard

i don’t think she was villagery last game, i literally caused her ml

@Vulgard

@Arctic

i mean the two worlds im considering right now are that’s it’s literally just you and kanave or something like 2 of eliza/lemon/vulgard

this is exactly what i’m thinking except i have you instead of myself for obvious reasons
i think you really are town

@Vulgard

@Lemonfairy

oh woah I caught up so fast by not commenting on anything

how surprising

@Vulgard

@Lemonfairy

@Kanave

I find this interesting given how Nokiel has been playing all game, she said pretty early on that Decisive pushes are generally wolfy and has indecisive all game, feels like shes playing into the meta that she herself is calling towny

I think ^this post is probably not w/w with Kanave

yeah kanave is probably not w/w with herself

[Arctic]

somebody else please do something, i’m going insane here.

i’m not going to confirm whether i actually believe the above scumteam.

[May]

I don’t want to admit that it could be Lemon and Vulgard because then I got completely owned at the start of the game :(

[Arctic]

vulgard has literally 0 meaningful interactions with lemonfairy, most times he quotes her it is to make a joke
he, drops her as obvious town at the start of the game and says he’ll revisit if we keep missing but never actually does this

@Vulgard

@Whysper

Yeah, this is giving me flashbacks of a game where he treated Appel like this, and she turned out to be a wolf

revisit this post if lemonfairy is a wolf maybe
not too sure about the connection but i’m always suspicious of such responses to early-game pushes

and then there’s this post which just straight up looks like TMI and makes no sense in the context of vulgard’s townread on lemon

think the only thing to argue against this team is the first posts maybe being a bit blatant for w/w, but it’s not enough for me to rule this team out

---

lemon’s posts towards vulgard look like stuff straight out of ladd’s w/w interactions article - in particular posts accusing people of pocketing each other are perhaps the most common w/w interaction. other posts are just awkward, feels like she’s handling vulgard with kid gloves in this post:

@Lemonfairy

Vulgard - I’m slightly paranoid of
the townread on me kinda came on very strongly and it’s from my initial question asking if Arctic is scum so it kind of feels like Vul could be pocketing me while pushing Arctic and now I’m more than slightly paranoid
the reasons were also kind of idk, the confidence didn’t really match up

paranoia feels disingenuous given the stage of the game we were in and reads as w/w not knowing how to handle their partner

they move vulgard up to the top of their readlist (literally the slot below the IC) on day 2 but then they say vulgard is the most likely wolf on the aelin wagon

rightfully she calls out the fact that vulgard made no real attempt to solve the game yesterday and considers vulgard/eliza being w/w so i’m curious to see how that progresses today

[May]

Ugh. I’ll admit I see it

[Arctic]

my main reason to suspect vulgard is because i felt like he wasn’t trying to solve the game yesterday but i don’t even know if this applies to him since he prefers wolfing and would have probably made some kind of effort yesterday to maintain his position

i maintain that lemonfairy is not as villagery as she was last game and there is in particular one thing that i think is lacking this game which is my main reason to scumread her. i’m not outting what this is because i believe there’s a chance it can still happen and i believe she can towntell today if she is town

[Arctic]

at this point i find it incredibly hard to believe a scumteam of kanave/nokiel is poisoning people like jar who have zero influence over the game unless they were banking on me to do exactly what i am today and tinfoil the other high posters

[Arctic]

now this is slightly problematic because if kanave/nokiel are wolves i’ve essentially done their homework for them so i really should have just done nothing and saw how the day progressed without my intervention but i find it hard to sit and do nothing in most cases

[Arctic]

also, i think lemon getting eliza killed yesterday is another thing supporting a lemonfairy+vulgard team because i specifically stated i think that if vulgard is a wolf it is with eliza, so that miselimination disproves that world and focuses my attention back to the kanave/nokiel world which is unresolved, conveniently in time for my poisoning today.

[May]

I… don’t know what I should be doing. I’m trying very hard not to let being wrong all game get to me, I know there’s no point in self-pity, but I also know that most of my theories have been chipped away at such that I should be re-evaluating, and I don’t know if I trust myself enough to do it.

[Arctic]

i mean you have been wrong all game if you are town (no offense) and so have i. there’s no reason this trend can’t be continuing into today

at least now regardless of what happens i can say i’ve tried to re-evaluate and check all possibilities, which was one of my goals for this game (to avoid getting too tunneled)

and my second goal was to avoid doomerposting, which i think i have achieved? i don’t think i’ve explicitly stated we are going to lose despite thinking this was the case since like… probably after the beancat miselimination

[May]

I feel like I’ve just… failed to properly grasp what’s going on this whole time, and even when I knew what we had to do at the end of yesterday, I failed to act on it, and now we have to take a gamble that was entirely avoidable. Every choice feels wrong.