Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[Vulgard]

I honestly see both of these arguments as legit in hindsight, considering my mindset about these slots previously and how it shifted a bit sometimes.

[Vulgard]

I’m just not sure why you were so attached to them for so long.

[Lemonfairy]

well, I was planning to just look at interactions only and try to ignore my individual read b/c I think that’s probably a more accurate method for me

I’m not getting anywhere rn though

[Vulgard]

Finish your work, then, you are excused from answering my questions for now. I want to see your solve.

[Vulgard]

Basically, just focus on the thing you said you would do. I’d like to see it before I go to sleep.

[Lemonfairy]

like, the only thing I would SR Nokiel for individually rn would be jumping on the lemon/Vul scumteam for seemingly 0 reason (felt like it could be like influence from a partner because I can’t really see the progression behind it)

and Kanave wasn’t towny to me at all until EOD3

[Host_Account_1]

Lemonfairy (1): Arctic
Kanave (1): Vulgard

Not Voting (4): Kanave, Lemonfairy, May, Nokiel

Majority is 4. Day ends 2022-12-05T04:00:00Z

[Arctic]

[Vulgard]

I really want to punt Lemonfairy despite my reads because I expected her to get to it but she’s just gone.

[Vulgard]

It’s like Kanave all over again, all the solving seems forced out of her right now.

[Vulgard]

My reads still tell me she’s probably not a wolf, but if she is a wolf, then uh. Good job, I guess, but also, seriously?

[Vulgard]

@Vulgard

I really want to punt Lemonfairy despite my reads because I expected her to get to it but she’s just gone.

I had a similar take last game when she was town, however. I just found her extremely underwhelming. But she’s not multitabling here, or so she claimed, while that was her excuse last time.

Hm.

[Lemonfairy]

May/Vulgard

May on Vul

@Vulgard

you literally just pushed eliza for the same thing, in the same timeframe, for almost exactly the same reason, as town in the previous game you played with her
this is obviously a fake push but you didn’t even try to make this look good smh

@May

Yes! I did this on purpose. Making the exact same push with a lot of the exact same people in thread gives me a really easy point of comparison for reactions, because it’s literally one-to-one.

@Vulgard

lol
at least you admit it i guess? but this is wild

@May

Arguably it was just a mental illness moment, “no I have to do this specific thing myself I can’t trust anybody else to do it or touch it despite the fact that they’d be the exact same” is one of the irrational thought patterns I find myself falling into a lot. I fully admit it was a bad decision lmao

@May

Arctic is town until proven otherwise, Vulgard is probably town, Lemon is probably town <— Reads I would give at first instinct.

@May

Arctic
Lemon & Vulgard
Nokiel & Whisper
Jar & Kanave
beancat & Eliza
Aelin

@May

3. Probably a chance scum bus here, since it looks like Aelin’s probably going to flip at some point, but I don’t think they jumped on it early. Not Vulgard, basically.
4. Vulgard, probably - he’s pretty universally townread and a high contributor, though I haven’t really taken the poison aspect into account.

3. Which wagons do you think the scum are most likely in? Are they currently bussing?
4. Who do you think is the most likely nightkill?

@Vulgard

Highlight text to quote it. Click the arrow button underneath a post for a direct reply.

@May

Wait what. I’ve just been replying and pressing the speech bubble button this entire time

@May

I think that if Kanave is a wolf, the other one doesn’t feel particularly confident in their leverage right now, which is why we haven’t seen a major push on another player, so not someone like Vulgard or Lemon.

@May

Hi. I woke up very late and I have stuff to do today but either Nokiel/Kanave contains a wolf or it’s Vulgard + Eliza I think.

@May

Vulgard is a weird slot and his wolfgame is too good for me to estimate him properly but I’ve seen from both sides him W/W with Eliza. I think that if Eliza is V I would probably place him in the clear enough pile but I have lost games to exactly having bad partnership reads on Vulgard so I don’t want to commit to it.

@May

Eliza has been the definition of just barely UTR and I think her being wolf with Vulgard would explain why the votes and kills have been Like This. I feel like her opinions have gone very ignored except for D1 Aelin and either it’s because she’s right and being discounted or wolf.

@May

Yeah, but I think that Vulgard is the most likely to be paired with someone outside Nokiel/Kanave, which is what I’m saying. I don’t think Lemon and Vulgard are W/W (or maybe I just hope they’re not), and I think you’re town.

@May

I make fake pushes as town all the time on D1, because they’re the only way to get the game going. Vulgard knows this. He saw the exact same thing last time. So, if he realized it was a reaction test, I don’t get why he’d call it out as a bad case… he knows that I know that he knows… unless he was trying to avoid looking like he was ignoring a case on a partner.

@May

In my experience, wolves hate looking like they’re ignoring their partners. Make garbage pushes that appear to carry little weight, ones they don’t think they’ll be stuck on by EoD, and they will react much more than townies will, or even that they as wolves would a push on a townie. I think that’s why w!Vulgard immediately moves to call this out.

@May

This seems potentially W/W to me!! This is a superficial interaction that is easy to fake!! I don’t think it’s definitive, because I still don’t think I have enough evidence to know who the wolfteam are (and it’s not as if this thread is an endless fountain of it by any means :frogge:), but I don’t think it’s nearly enough to discard them as possible partners as you are, Arctic.

@May

And then Vulgard notices that her calling this out is unnatural!! It feels like they’re thinking way too much about how they’re treating each other in thread, and that’s coming across in their posts.

@May

I do think Vulgard/Eliza is my most likely scum team at the moment, but the sum of all Nokiel worlds is more likely than the Vulgard/Eliza team individually, if that makes sense? Nokiel’s flip would narrow things down enough to prove the theory.

@May

Hi. I’m sorry that I wasn’t more forceful about stopping the Eliza execution - that was largely my fault, as I wasn’t clear enough that my Eliza/Vulgard world was based on Nokiel being a villager, something I wasn’t confident in, and when the actual execution came around, I completely dropped the ball on stopping it (in my defense, I was barely awake; I think the strawberry melatonin is stronger than the stuff I usually take).

@May

I don’t want to admit that it could be Lemon and Vulgard because then I got completely owned at the start of the game :(

@May

And when I finally got the confidence to do one of my normal plays, to push Vulgard/Eliza and see what happened and see how people reacted, I just… let it get away from me.

@May

I didn’t want Eliza dead, I needed to see how people pushed her, so I resisted that wagon, and when I failed, I just… let myself think I failed. I didn’t re-evaulate. I came in with the same perspective I had yesterday - that Nokiel should probably die to narrow things down - and you had to be the one to point out that the reaction test worked and it looked a lot like Lemon and Vulgard were partnered. I should’ve noticed it, it was right in my face, and I just. Didn’t.

@May

Last game I played where I pushed a wolfteam consisting of w!Vulgard and a villager, he did something very particular . He argued with me, but not directly , because he didn’t want me to break out of my tunnel on Brad, who was a villager. He made it clear he thought I was wrong .

At the time, I thought that it was because he was trying to invoke my decision paralysis and get me off of Brad, but it wasn’t . It was because he knew I was voting the wrong person, and that TMI came across in the way he argued. I think he’s doing that again.

He said my post suspecting Nokiel was “arguably the wolfiest post in the game”. That is something that someone who’s a wolf with Lemon would say - someone who would see that post and go “this is great, this is easy, May’s making our argument for us, she’s going to lose town the game”.

@May

It’s between Kanave/Lemon/Nokiel/Vulgard.

@May

Kanave/Vulgard - I’m not sure Vulgard would bus this much, but maybe? That would mean his behavior today would be trying to connect me with Kanave and get me voted out first, as he did in GOAT^2. Looking back, he bounced back and forth on Kanave a bit, rather than “tunneling her all game” as he said. It’s not something I’ve thought about and evaluated at all, but that’s the purpose of this exercise, I suppose.

@May

Lemon/Vulgard - The tinfoil case. I just… failed to consider it when I was first coming into thread, which is embarrassing, but how thread has been progressing today feels like it reinforces this world as what’s real… though I don’t know if it’s confbias. I think I was largely ignoring it out of convenience, because this is the inconvenient world, and I would love for it to go away please.

@May

Nokiel/Vulgard - During the night phase, I had some notes on why this was possible - it was in my consideration, hence why I said all my potential wolfteams contained Nokiel - and I don’t really think it’s impossible. I just haven’t seen any particular evidence for it, I think? I really need to analyze this more, but I’m at the bottom of this list and I really have a million other things I should be doing.

Vul on May

@Vulgard

your playstyle the last few games has suffered from you not really doing anything for the first couple of days
as harsh as it sounds it’s just true, as someone who’s seen it both as town and as mafia
it’s really hard to read into because it’s difficult to tell if you’re just waiting around as mafia for town to kill itself or if you’re genuinely trying to piece the game together until you get the solve late into the game

@Vulgard

you literally just pushed eliza for the same thing, in the same timeframe, for almost exactly the same reason, as town in the previous game you played with her
this is obviously a fake push but you didn’t even try to make this look good smh

@Vulgard

lol
at least you admit it i guess? but this is wild

@Vulgard

i also think may is town for this entire post

@Vulgard

i see why you would say that and i think it’s a towny observation

@Vulgard

nah i was making fun of you for making your bad case obvious

@Vulgard

This post alone has made me suspect it might actually be May.

@Vulgard

But the other posts are fine.

@Vulgard

I’m choosing to ignore the fact May just wrote arguably the wolfiest post in the game.

@Vulgard

Weird, you’ve never said such a thing as town to my knowledge.

@Vulgard

May, I have a question. How do you normally write your posts?

This is relevant.

@Vulgard

Thought to address this, I corrected that part because it was factually wrong and it made me look like a dumbass so I turned it into a joke.

@Vulgard

That didn’t answer my question.

@Vulgard

I was asking about your process of writing, not what you write on.

@Vulgard

Like, are you just posting off the top of your head or actually trying to think and deleting stuff and re-typing it and going crazy?

@Vulgard

May’s posts about Nokiel are kind of whatever before this, but.

@Vulgard

There is absolutely no way this is W/W. Ever.

@Vulgard

Other than that, you’ve been typing off the top of your head this game, right?

@Vulgard

This all looks like pretty standard distancing to me. I got to the push on me/Eliza and I unfortunately think it’s towny even if wrong.

@Vulgard

That said, it is a very convenient distraction from solving Kanave. May has been trying to steer the execution away from Kanave for the entire game and is still doing it now, I find it really weird. Never the top priority.

@Vulgard

This feels somewhat similar to the Kanave thing but I see the bolded parts as TMI on Lemon being town if I read these posts from the POV of May being a wolf.

@Vulgard

I feel like it’s Kanave/May or Nokiel +1. I don’t think May is with Lemon (as just explained) or with Nokiel (also as just explained). I don’t think Lemonfairy is with Kanave (as just explained) or with May (as explained through May).

It can be Nokiel/Lemon or Nokiel/Kanave. Or, well, as I just said, Kanave/May.

I am pretty sure this is just unaligned
also think the way May treats Vul is a lot scummier now that I’m townreading Vul

[Vulgard]

This is an elite crosspost.

[Lemonfairy]

woah nice timing

[Lemonfairy]

idk I was doing other stuff

[Lemonfairy]

forgot which one was the next one

[Lemonfairy]

May/Kanave and Vul/Kanave

[Nokiel]

Haven’t been able to get on the forum much as of late and now it’s evening. After backreading and rereading a little, I’m sheeping Arc and getting on the Lemon wagon.

VOTE: Lemonfairy

[May]

Hi, sorry I haven’t been here, I have a bunch of shit to do this weekend and haven’t been able to be properly around. I… don’t have a better understanding of the game than when I left, so I should probably start thinking on that, first and foremost.