Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[May]

I just feel… really lost. I don’t have a solve. I failed to create a world where I could make a solve, despite the fact that I was on the right track earlier, because I settled for a bad execution yesterday and failed to react properly. I know it could be Lemon and Vulgard, and that’s where my instinct goes, but no matter what I do, I can’t convince myself I have enough evidence to commit to any one world… but in a game with a two-player scumteam, will I ever?

I know there are the pieces available to me that could help clarify things, but every time I go looking they just… don’t stand out. I see evidence that it could be anyone, because the stress makes me paranoid and the paranoia makes it difficult to judge possibilities from probabilities. Ugh.

[Vulgard]

I think I’m just going to hard commit to the Kanave/Nokiel world and apologize for being wrong here if Lemonfairy is mafia, and especially if May is mafia as well. I just don’t quite see it. Lemonfairy has been rather underwhelming today and hasn’t done as much as I would like her to, so I won’t be too mad if you vote her out here, and I definitely won’t be mad if she flips mafia, but I think the Kanave/Nokiel universe makes sense.

Leaving my vote where it is and going to sleep, hoping I don’t wake up and check the thread only to see a MAFIA WINS.

[Arctic]

so vulgard/may is not a thing
interesting

[Arctic]

it was a peripheral concern i’ll admit

[Arctic]

i mean i don’t really feel bad if this is wrong

if it is kanave/nokiel then lemon removed the elimination from being between two wolves to a villager. i did afk my vote wrongly but there’s a bit of a difference

[May]

@Vulgard

I really want to punt Lemonfairy despite my reads because I expected her to get to it but she’s just gone.

@Vulgard

My reads still tell me she’s probably not a wolf, but if she is a wolf, then uh. Good job, I guess, but also, seriously?

The way that Vulgard’s pivoted around into being okay with a Lemon execution makes me feel comfortable enough that this is a hit, I think.

[May]

@May

@Vulgard

I really want to punt Lemonfairy despite my reads because I expected her to get to it but she’s just gone.

@Vulgard

My reads still tell me she’s probably not a wolf, but if she is a wolf, then uh. Good job, I guess, but also, seriously?

The way that Vulgard’s pivoted around into being okay with a Lemon execution makes me feel comfortable enough that this is a hit, I think.

Oh wait goddamnit this is what I get for not reading recent messages. Well It’s Still Sus

[Arctic]

yeah i think vulgard is mafia

it would probably be better to kill him because i think he could still be with nokiel instead of lemon

but he’s played this starkly different to the last lylo i saw him in where he was going insane as town

[Host_Account_1]

Lemonfairy (2): Arctic, Nokiel
Kanave (1): Vulgard

Not Voting (3): Kanave, Lemonfairy, May

Majority is 4. Day ends 2022-12-05T04:00:00Z

[Lemonfairy]

Kanave/May

May on Kanave

@May

Arctic
Lemon & Vulgard
Nokiel & Whisper
Jar & Kanave
beancat & Eliza
Aelin

@May

In any other game, my immediate thought would be that Kanave’s a bad D2 execution, because her doesn’t lead us to a good understanding of the gamestate, but with only two wolves… I’m not sure we entirely need to worry about that? It’s not gonna be a situation where two pivotal villager flips build a good web.

The thing that gives me pause about the Kanave wagon is the way that very few people have placed votes so far. It feels like the wolves are happy to let her execution proceed, I think? But it could also be that they don’t want to look like they’re contesting the wagon in the case that it does go over, which they’d see as likely… Dunno. Not sure. I can’t find my footing on any strong opinions today, probably because I am doing the D2 thing again. I need more practice with this.

@May

I think that if Kanave is a wolf, the other one doesn’t feel particularly confident in their leverage right now, which is why we haven’t seen a major push on another player, so not someone like Vulgard or Lemon. I also don’t believe that Kanave’s potential partner would be beancat, since they ended D1 as the only two players on the same wagon, which leaves Arctic, Nokiel, Jar, and Eliza as partners who would create this sort of gamestate with w!Kanave. That’s a decently narrow pool, and I think I could look more into individual actions if I wanted, but I don’t want to dedicate myself exclusively to this one world.

@May

Hi. I woke up very late and I have stuff to do today but either Nokiel/Kanave contains a wolf or it’s Vulgard + Eliza I think.

@May

Kanave has not many posts but from what she does have I see an undue focus on both Eliza (early on) and Nokiel. I think her slot is the one I understand the least and want to see the most pressure on at the moment, I want her to commit to some arguments. VOTE: Kanave

@May

Fuck I thought the two votes were on Nokiel for some reason. I’ll unvote for now yea

UNVOTE

@May

This is the first public evidence of something I have been unconsciously doing all game: confusing K anave and No k iel. Because of the shared letter. It’s the sharpest letter in both names so it draws my attention

@May

Yeah, but I think that Vulgard is the most likely to be paired with someone outside Nokiel/Kanave, which is what I’m saying. I don’t think Lemon and Vulgard are W/W (or maybe I just hope they’re not), and I think you’re town.

@May

I agree w/ this - I don’t entirely discount the possibility that Lemon is a wolf, but I think she’d only potentially be with Nokiel, and I think we can cross that bridge when it comes. For now, I don’t think killing Kanave gives us a winning PoE unless we’re certain she’s a wolf, and I’m not.

@May

To put it bluntly, I think Kanave is a bad execution for today and people should stop voting her. It’s a gamble on a single possible scumteam, a gamble that can be a lot more easily taken by voting out Nokiel instead.

The main reason I voted Kanave earlier was because I thought Nokiel was the leading wagon at the time and I wanted to pressure Kanave more (to see if wolves jumped on it, because I didn’t have any good associative reads with Kanave and I wanted to make some). In the reality that actually exists, rather than the one I made up in my Mind, she’s a bad vote.

VOTE: Nokiel

@May

Kanave/Lemon - Lemon tried very hard to get Kanave killed at EoD2 in a way that was just completely unnecessary as a wolf. It was early enough in the game that I’m happy to discount this possibility for now unless someone flips.

@May

Kanave/Nokiel - In this case, the wolves are intentionally allowing high-posters to tear each other apart and killing the lower-posting players. For a little while, I thought this was unlikely, given Kanave helped vote off Eliza, whose flip would direct a lot of people toward voting Nokiel… but I, uh, just remembered who Eliza was a counterwagon to. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that proves this, and I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that really dis proves it. I wish we’d executed Nokiel yesterday.

@May

Kanave/Vulgard - I’m not sure Vulgard would bus this much, but maybe? That would mean his behavior today would be trying to connect me with Kanave and get me voted out first, as he did in GOAT^2. Looking back, he bounced back and forth on Kanave a bit, rather than “tunneling her all game” as he said. It’s not something I’ve thought about and evaluated at all, but that’s the purpose of this exercise, I suppose.

Kanave on May

@May

Yeah, I agree with everything you’re saying here, though I don’t think Jar was a bad choice regardless, since I don’t think any of us were wolfreading him.

@Kanave

At one point Arctic questioned my TR on them; but def not a wolf read.

@Kanave

Town
May,
(gap)
Arctic
Null - Lemon
Vulgard (At this point i think we likely have a wolf miscleared, this is the mostly likely culprit bc of the stuff between them and Eliza)
Noki
Eliza

@Kanave

May i’ve just had town most of the game, and stuff like the Eliza/vul case they’ve never bother with as wolf here they’d just coast

@Kanave

May posted a Vul.Eliza case

@May

I’m sorry that I wasn’t more forceful about stopping the Eliza execution - that was largely my fault, as I wasn’t clear enough that my Eliza/Vulgard world was based on Nokiel being a villager

@Kanave

its fine, i had apprenhensions and voted anyways that was just a big fuck up from everyone who was around

I can see this being w/w potentially
Kanave putting May as their top TR for most of game and then tagging me to look at a case May made does give me some pause b/c it’s quite daring for partners to do something like that but it’s not enough for me to comfortably eliminate the world

[May]

Yeah, I think Vulgard/Lemon is the most likely team, but looking back… I can’t really see anyone else Lemon’s partnered with, so I think I’d prefer a Vulgard execution first. We’re testing for the same team either way.

[Arctic]

don’t really like how nokiel came back today and did literally no solving once again

and all kanave has done is try to argue why we should kill me and then omgus vulgard

it’s day 4 and the same thing is happening

[Arctic]

@May why don’t you think it’s nokiel/kanave anymore

[Kanave]

backreading

[May]

Looking back through the game, it just… feels like the wolves have had more influence than a team of Nokiel/Kanvae could have been providing to it. The wagons moved in a way where there had to be someone behind the scenes actually trying to do something, and the two of them just… didn’t. They would’ve been more tense on D3 when it looked like either Kanave or Nokiel was going to be executed all day, and I just… didn’t get that sense of urgency in the way wagons moved. Everyone was shrugging and throwing their hands up. The kills had no sense of fear behind them, either - I don’t mean this in a rude way, Jar, if you’re reading this, but wolves don’t kill an inexperienced player like that unless they’re not afraid of the more experienced ones.

I can’t entirely eliminate the possibility of it being those two from my mind, but I’m willing to discount it as unlikely enough to go for Vulgard, and I also… just have to make a call, at this point. Indecisive townies are more easily influenced by wolves.

[Kanave]

@Arctic

separately i don’t buy her reasons for townreading kanave and nokiel yesterday, and i think she had an agenda to kill eliza yesterday which was to disprove the world of you and eliza while keeping nokiel and kanave around to get ML’ed today

I can buy this, I was wondering why w!Lemon would have saved me so i was mostly keeping them out of my poes

[May]

Alright, I’m going to go make dinner and experience torment. I’m comfortable leaving a VOTE: Vulgard down for now. Ping me if you need me, but I probably won’t be able to respond immediately.

[Arctic]

yeah no kanave you aren’t just going to piggyback my solve and do jack shit

if you’re town convince me

[Host_Account_1]

Lemonfairy (2): Arctic, Nokiel
Kanave (1): Vulgard
Vulgard (1): May

Not Voting (2): Kanave, Lemonfairy

Majority is 4. Day ends 2022-12-05T04:00:00Z

[Lemonfairy]

omg halp
literally if either Arctic or Nokiel aren’t wolves I can get hammered rn