a novel
Most of this is going to be talking about Leafia spew/interactions and how eod directs my reads because the latest legacy i gave considers pretty much everything except these two things, so I donât expect my townreads to change too much
I think Leafia accusing tutuu early on of TMIâing sulit town is very likely to make sulit town and also pretty likely to make tutuu town. Leafiaâs gut townread on Kiiruma âMy gut is telling me that Kiiruma is a villager atm. Hopefully itâs right about that.â is not how she usually talks about partners, so itâs a decent look for kiiruma but not something Iâm willing to lock in like the previous thing
iâve realized that this is very quickly just going to turn into a wolfcase on atlas and luxy for several reasons. the first thing i want to talk about is the angle from leafiaâs side. remember the interaction i had with leafia where she called out me saying âi want to see what you do nextâ as being wolfy, and not commenting on atlas making the exact same post, despite mine being a copypasta of hers? iâm pretty sure this happened because they are partners. even when i presented the post right to her face, she called out something else about it as being wolfy rather than that specific thing. she called out atlasâs entrance as being wolfy but then pretty much said nothing about her the entire game until eod when she floated the idea of CFDâing Atlas.
this is a pretty bad look for Luxy because if the wagons were v/w Leafia would just be begging people to vote Luxy, but she⌠wasnât. which is what i think might indicate that the wagons were w/w. consider that nobody was actually pushing for anyone to vote Luxy in the last 20 minutes or so of the day when we had decided on Leafia/Luxy wagons, and none of the people who ended on Luxy were particularly wolfy. i think the first instinct might be to go after Apprentice who pretty clearly preferred Luxy over Leafia but consider that itâs pretty likely pandora is town given the way Leafia and pandora interacted, and remember how Apprentice was the one to push the idea that pandora is probably the misyeet wolves were happy with. i think that this was probably correct, and is not something wolves would want to bring light to - so that has me thinking Apprentice is town and Iâm going back to thinking that no wolves were really trying to push Luxy over instead, and imo that is an indication that the wagons were w/w. back on the whole âcfdâing Atlasâ thing, part of me feels like it was designed to spew Atlas town because she could not have seriously thought it was ever going to go through. but, either way, it is incredibly incriminating for Luxy. we have all seen wolf Leafia in domes with villagers - she screams for their heads and spams a bunch of nonsense, but she wasnât actually trying hard to push Luxy over here. she just wanted to survive, which has bad implications for luxyâs alignment imo.
something worth noting is that i donât think wolves expected leafia to go over or planned around it - and regardless of luxyâs alignment (pending if heâs a better role or not) wolves -probably- did want him to go over Leafia given that her position in peopleâs reads was significantly better. which, while somewhat hypocritical of me, does have me looking at Atlas again for her Luxy vote when the wagons were decided on Leafia/Luxy. Nobody should be awarded cred for switching to Leafia after Anonymoose ccâed redirector - Atlas in particular is smart enough to realize that Leafia was gonna die there after being ccâed with around 60 seconds left iirc. It especially doesnât matter if Luxy is also a wolf
Remembering the whole segment where Leafia argued with Apprentice about how I shouldnât be cleared if Luxy flips wolf, I think this may just be as simple as spewing Luxy wolf and Leafia not being happy about me being rightfully cleared for it, which also spews Apprentice town. Itâs a weird thing for a wolf to harp on about if Luxy is town, and knowing Leafiaâs TMI tendencies it does kinda just look like Luxy is probably a wolf here. And, well, I spoke about it in my legacy at eod but Luxy being a wolf leads pretty surely to Atlas being a wolf too given her treatment of him (overly generous townread â> moving him down after being called out ----> trying to rewrite history by claiming she only ever had him as a null read - these are all textbook signs of w/w damage control). I wonât quote stuff here, but please donât just not read her iso because she has 300 posts halfway into day 2 or whatever. if she is a wolf thatâs what she wants to happen by re-writing history and hoping people donât check. her townread on luxy was overly generous and she tried to talk it down as much as possible
Some other stuff I thought is worth pointing out:
This interaction feels W/W to me because Leafia does not treat anybody else like this - she didnât randomly ask anyone to explain their reads without good reason, and wolves often get antsy about feeling like they have to interact with each other, and this interaction feels like exactly that. this was the first time she interacted atlas after calling her opener wolfy. they then go on to have a conversation where atlas asks leafia why she finds pandora wolfy, while both of them are parked on pandora. it doesnât feel natural at all. it feels like an interaction that exists just for the sake of it and doesnât achieve anything meaningful
I think the last thing i want to bring up on the atlas/leafia topic is atlasâs read of leafia. the premise of her read being âleafia is town unless sheâs being coachedâ both seems hilariously like a read made with TMI and a smart angle to take as a wolf who is in fact coaching Leafia - because it serves to spread the idea that Leafia is posting better than she normally does as wolf and she is thus town here, and also opens avenues to push other people down the line once Leafia has flipped for âcoachingâ her
i think the main indicator of pandora being v is how long Leafia parked her vote on her and the whole reaction test episode just spews pandora town. i think she is doubly spewed town if anyone else on her wagon during the day flips wolf (which probably is the case). if the game seems wrong and pandora is overtly wolfy or something then itâs worth re-visiting but this game would have to be hella strange for her to be a wolf
thereâs a wifom with whether or not leafia would actually say âall the wagons are town vote:jarekâ if all the wagons were actually town, but, even for her i think this seems a bit too much to be true so it still leaves me wanting to kill luxy, especially in conjunction with #1210 seeming hilariously like TMI. also a wifom also with her posts about illwei at eod. not sure what to make of it
iâm aware that ash voted luxy at eod and heâs probably gonna get shit for that but i actually think the way ash handled it is more likely to come from town than not, but iâm not confident about this. i think with at least 1 wolf being wagoned ash is more likely to make some form of stance sooner rather than hedging his bets until the last second - May made a point of this too which seems pretty spot on (though I wonder what this means for May himself lol). Illwei wanted to shut down the pandora wagon when the wagons were luxy/leafia/leafia. if luxy is a wolf too this is a decent look
aside from this, i suspect that wolves are very likely to be in the people voting pandora pre-eod or no-voting because my impression is that wolves were planning on just letting that misyeet happen, especially if the most plausible CW pre-eod (luxy) is a wolf. so, weâre once again looking at atlas/luxy but also someone i havenât mentioned until now - frostwolf, who i think can easily be mafia given he did basically nothing except push pandora for no reason and was lacking his usual towny drive and self-assuredness. i do get hints of it though - like he doesnât really sound like his normal wolf-self, which is why i donât want to kill him immediately but please get him to turn it up tomorrow
Anonymoose is obviously town after how eod transpired. Bys and Jarek are still probably town on posting but donât really have anything in their favor from that eod. Kiiruma I have no fucking clue about, as usual. the Leafia wagon pre-tutuu should be clear if Luxy is town. If luxy isnât town then re-visit illwei - not May, because May was also on Luxyâs case early on so I think sheâs most likely town either way. I think beancat could slot in here somewhere because she honestly just isnât that towny and though Iâm not sure exactly if her eod was influenced by irl, if it wasnât then her behaviour could be explained by wolf doomering about w/w wagons. the only thing i think she has in her favor is leafia randomly putting her at the top of her read list with zero mention prior because leafia doesnât tend to treat her partners like that, but it feels pretty weak and sheâs just not towny so shrug. if i had to spitball a team it would probably be luxy+atlas and 1 of illwei/frostwolf/beancat. kiiruma can slot in here too, atlas and him townread each other cheekily for nebulous reasons. donât kill illwei if luxy is town, sheâs a serial wolfsider and wouldnât have voted leafia + correctly called v!pandora and v!luxy at eod as a wolf
which leaves my poe as
ash (donât really believe it but i can have 7 names not accounting for extra kp)
illwei (sheâs prob just town esp if luxy is town but still needs to be here)
frostwolf (donât believe this either but he needs to turn it up tomorrow, otherwise kill him soon)
beancat
kiiruma
atlas
luxy
pandora would be above this but no room. prob donât kill her if luxy wolf tho
Wow this is literally SBPC sans Atlas! I donât think I can do much about this though when these players did not post themselves clear!
my strongest townreads are anonymoose, tutuu, apprentice, may and sulit. bystander and jarek are a tier below. pandora i think still has a small chance of being a wolf but i think itâs unlikely. donât ever kill app if luxy/atlas contains at least 1 wolf. donât ever kill may if luxy is a wolf. donât ever kill anonymoose lmao. tutuu and sulit are tinfoilable in lylo i guess - but if luxy is a wolf donât ever kill tutuu cuz she called out leafia/luxy wolf early lol (gonna invoke a vague tinfoil on sulit rn for post-game cred, cuz she responded to anonâs cc but didnât move her voteâŚ). re-visit bys/jarek/pandora if the poe is bad. gl
@tutuu there is a reasonable chance that we were right about it just being a team cheekily trying to townread each other but not having the threadpull to do so (being kiiruma/atlas/leafia/luxy - i remember us mindmelding on this earlier) which is still my working assumption rn but i donât think all of the wolves have to be in here, just 1 minimum but most likely 2
luxy should just be a freebie. iâm less sure on atlas because i am kinda oscillating between him/kiiruma being a difference check rather than w/w but meh, i think we can probably flip all 3 to bag at least 1 and hopefully 2. but especially flip atlas if luxy is a wolf. please.
MECH STUFF: wow good thing i didnt forget to remove this lol
lastly, remember to ignore any mech bullshit from kiiruma and atlas unless it is literally a greencheck claimed by a completely uninvolved player, they are both players known for curating smart mechanical scenarios as mafia and âclearingâ themselves off of false mech in rolemadness games
have fun gamers, iâm sure yâall have this now. donât take my word as the gospel, use your brains. but if you donât wanna use your brains then you can take my word as the gospel. though i just hope you use it to inform your reads especially if i wind up dead despite not really being a main pusher of Leafia
