It was literally 3am, also no blue chancellor is confirmed, that’s correct, but what would you rather, a random player who can be any alignment having a touch as the president to drop stuff or simply letting the player who has already touched the deck touch it again to see the result. One is clearly more better than the other, you seem like you’ve played SH before, you should know this by now.
And I was talking about the entire deck as a whole, granted it was talking about a cleansweep, but it showed the clear likelyhood of things. To add onto this by the way, since you love using math so much, I’m going to use math to prove why there would be no point in me and Amelia both as evil being chosen together.
The deck has BBBRRRRRRRR remaining in the case all claims are truthful from all players:
BBB has a 3/11 x 2/10 x 1/9 chance of occuring, aka 0.606% chance of occuring
BBR has a 3/11 x 2/10 x 8/9 chance of occuring, aka 4.84% chance of occuring
BRB has a 3/11 x 8/10 x 2/9 chance of occuring, aka 4.84% chance of occuring
BRR has a 3/11 x 8/10 x 7/9 chance of occuring, aka 16.96% chance of occuring
RBB has a 8/11 x 3/10 x 2/9 chance of occuring, aka 4.84% chance of occuring
RBR has a 8/11 x 3/10 x 7/9 chance of occuring, aka 16.96% chance of occuring
RRB has a 8/11 x 7/10 x 3/9 chance of occuring, aka 16.96% chance of occuring
RRR has a 8/11 x 7/10 x 6/9 chance of occuring, aka 33.93% chance of occuring
All together that means the chances of each thing is:
3 Bs - 0.606%
2 Bs, 1 Rs - 14.52%
1 Bs, 2 Rs - 50.88%
3Rs - 33.93%
(They don’t add up to 100% but that’s because of rounding up)
In the case Amelia is scum and I am town there is only a 15.126% chance of a blue policy being enacted unless they decide to enact it anyway
In the case Amelia is town and I am scum this chance is the same unless I choose to enact a blue policy anyway
In the case we’re both Town there is a 66.006% chance that we enact a blue policy
In the case we’re both Scum there is a 0.606% chance that a blue policy is enacted
So now I have a question for you, considering you love math so much, do you actually think there’s a point in us both as scum picking each other, or are you just saying that to seem like you’re doing something with “proof” to back it up, my pessimism is justified.
Amelia is the definition of a random hand because they never got a choice in deciding R or B. You’re presenting it as somehow they magically influenced Jane to discard R.
The thing is your cases point is actually just straight up useless because it is influenced by the player and therefore would constitute as WIFOM which I’m completely avoiding. My point is if I decided me/CRich, not only is the chance of Jedi policy passing basically increased FMPOV, but I also get to pick and resolve my POE and advance my plans of having Seth’s dream of passing all 5 Jedi win be a thing. See how social play comes in handy in this game?