Serpent and the Swordsman - Day 4 [6/15]

alright. i wrote a whole bunch of stuff. idk how good it is. probably shit. my brain hurts from trying to solve flipless

i will split this into chunks so its easier to read

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ok. so.
im not considering atlas wolf, ice wolf, luka wolf. i have finite amount of time and sanity i can afford to spend on this game. i am hoping u guys will catch worlds where any of those are mafia, u have a ton more botc experience than me. i still dont get how pit hag works

if artemis is town, i think sheā€™s minstrel. i saw atlas pushing against that but i disagree, even if theyā€™re trying to protect her. i dont have the energy left to consider beating around the bush. i just wanna solve, i hope thats ok

i think artemis is town because she is questioning baker (after no kills after baker death) and she repeatedly insisted we are not considering otter town. this makes sense if artemis is minstrel

litten is softing a green check on jarek. if he doesnā€™t have a green check on him i would HEAVILY urge him to reconsider doing what he did earlier - adamantly asserting ā€œjarek isnā€™t mm.ā€. i will solve with the assumption that litten has a green check on jarek

jarek softed exorcist. heā€™s that if heā€™s town. otherwise heā€™s evil. i wonā€™t accept him jumping to another town claim

to summarize so far:

atlas luka icet town

artemis minstrel or evil

jarek exorcist or evil

litten softs green check on jarek

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now, to add:

baker mutant or evil

magnus mutant, pixie, or evil

otter pixie or evil

this means that its guaranteed there is at least one wolf in baker, magnus, and otter, no matter what

there has been only one gossip posted yesterday afaik, and that was from someone, who gossiped that magnus is evil. no deaths occured

if someone is gossip ā†’ magnus town, UNLESS {artemis = minstrel AND baker = mafia)

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This is correct.

some world pondering:

most of our worldbuilding has assumed otter mafia. this has now led to the situation where one of my top townreads (litten) is softing a green check on jarek who i think is a wolf, and who is also softing a potential red check on me. not good.

letā€™s consider otter town. there is no fucking artist. they did not offer to be cannibal food. we have had 3 gossips day 1 that gossiped that demon is in 1-8 litten has been aggressively insisting the {demon in 1-8} is due to artist question, either because heā€™s town and trying to misinform evil, or heā€™s evil representing a pro-town action. in either case it represents a pro-town gesture

if otter is town, she was misinformed about seeing artist. three possibilities: poisoned by pukka, poisoned by puzzlemaster, saw huli jing who saw artist

if otter town, mastermind is potentially still alive. baker was insistant he dunked on her. i dont find the usage in an aggressive bus, especially if baker was the next dayā€™s chop. that means that in the baker, otter, magnus trio - magnus is the wolf. that could potentially mean all 4 wolves are alive

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@Silviu200530 Yes to your latest question. Most likely so, at least.

if artemis town alongside these earlier speculations - jarekā€™s fake claimiming exorcist. that means heā€™s w/w with litten. i dont know the fourth wolf, could be a lot of people

another world im wary of - baker demon. no kills n3 either because baker demon and/or artemis minstrel stopped. jarek claims exorcist. litten green check. they dont have to be both mafia. they could be both town - but then this is fucked. mafia have unnecessarily bussed. baker, magnus, may, bionic/someone? hazard? silviu?

if today is mm day, and lets say jarek is going out to chop me. because itā€™s me versus him. litten is supporting jarek (i think). otter town.

baker demon + jarek/litten/+1, with one of those being mastermind. also huli jing who de facto poisoned otter

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a world where jarek and litten are both town would have to mean 2/3 of magnus/baker/otter are mafia imo. i just dont believe it, if only 1/3 are

may/magnus/baker/otter ?

there is a very niche world where jarek town but litten mafia. i dont konw what his endgame is here though. he didnt feel like he is about to pounce on me and win due to mm day. so it doesnt feel like litten wolf + jarek town fits with baker demon world

let me consider baker town.

magnus/otter/jarek/litten or magnus/otter/jarek/+1 comes to mind. not artemis. actually im not sure why not artemis, that was the first thought that popped up and i felt confident but now i cant justify it if i think real hard. my brain is a bit fried im giving it my all

innkeeper also could explain no death. innkeeper could have stopped imp from self-deleting. i dont know who was innkept, though. i dont have full info and i think the amount of effort iā€™d need to spend to consider every permutation is just not worth, i mean its a game not a job :stuck_out_tongue:

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i cant really give confident and concrete worlds, i dont have info, and my thoughts are a bit chaotic sorry. trying my best. to summarize cliffs:

  • i am afraid of mm day, jarek with his sudden leap on me, litten with the green check soft on jarek

  • i am afraid that otter could have been town

  • i am afraid of jarek/someone/bionic not getting chopped, and then imp / pit hag jumping

oh yeah i didnt even think about courtier pithag. it would be very nice if we have a courtier who blocked pithag. i dont have guarantee that we do. if we dont have a courtier this is gonna be pain

if we no chop today and jarek/bionic/someone (or more people alongside any of those) die during the night - i think that incriminates litten and/or silviu and/or may

there is a world where we just no chop and we just win

i need help. i would urge us to chill out a bit on the secrecy and codes and put our cards on the table. im afraid that too much secrecy and weā€™re gonna fuck ourselves over. if u guys do wanna chop me after all because of jarek - please can you at least do that tomorrow? not today? it could be mm day - please dont bet the game on otter being mafia

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113 1132?

@otterpopd please if youā€™re town chime in. most of our worlds are based off u mafia. atlas is adamant u were mm and that we donā€™t need to worry about it. if u werenā€™t mm we are potentially throwing an easy win today based off what we do or donā€™t do

we only need 1 town alive to win. it doesnt matter if you mischop me to clear up some worlds. just please be wary of mm

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I donā€™t believe Litten has a greencheck on Jarek. Weā€™ve been acting off a social dichotomy in regards to his behaviour across alignments, assuming he would act one way or another with discernible nuance.

i donā€™t know whatā€™s 1132

132

I did had games beforehand where Jarek was just dead silent and was also just evil

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i suppose thatā€™s possible. in that case artemis might be evil. i dont know. i have no clue whatā€™s her role then

and finally @baker i wrote this for you. please read my earlier solve (whenever u can) and then this apology letter. please, consider working with me, friend

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134 140 ā€”> 42/48 (no mention of the role sadly)

@tutuu

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Sob emoji, tutu is that based

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