also as for this
idk how I’d play this as wolf in general
I wouldn’t make that post though, for fear of it coming off as TMI or BS
one of the problems I’ve had in my recent wolfgames is being unable to judge whether that kind of reasoning is realistic
nyaaaaaaaaaaa I am too tired to continue rn
so I’m posting where I’m at now + misc thoughts in another post
Reads with * are ones I didn’t fully analyze rn
Strong town
Jail
Medium town
Bionic
Lean town
Wazza
Derps
Luxy*
Leafia*
Light town
Someone
Null
Brakuren
Catbae
Creature
Wolflean
Guava*
Jail is detailed in 2750. I’m very confident here and honestly a little bit of me considered faking a green peek on him to ensure people sheep this even if I go over, but I’m not doing that out of policy.
Bionic is in his town meta - while it is a fakable meta, he’s consistently done this as town, and not done it as wolf.
Wazza read is this:
Derps I find towny for the way they’ve shared their role so openly*, and they’re no longer frozen / lowposting. It does concern me that they’re not making any confident pushes though; they tend to do that as town. (Hence why they’re in lean town instead of medium.)
*This is a towntell in general, but given what I know of Derps I also buy this:
Someone is for MechTM (not the stuff mentioned in thread). I’ll not reveal more now. Off dayplay I’d put them at null; I don’t think their miller claim is AI, given they’re good at making fakeclaims (for the average player it’d be towny though).
Brak I haven’t seen anything towny or hard to fake, though to be fair it’s 1 AM when I’m looking through this so I could be missing things. Coming into the ISO I had thought their various fishes (namely: [asking the source of May’s discord message, and then the day it was from] and [asking for the players who won the Derps wolfgame I linked]) were towny, but upon thinking about it, they’re accustomed to these types of fishes so I think I was overweighting that.
There’s an argument to TR Brak for:
Because it makes him look worse when he doesn’t get nightkilled, but I don’t believe that. Also there’s an argument that wolves have too much voting power if Brak is a wolf (assuming 4-5 wolves) but that only maaaaybe holds water if there’s 5 wolves IMO.
Luxy initially (all of yesterday) read like a town leader to me, and I was under the impression they’re pretty experienced. Today they feel kinda lost? I think it’s that they’re projecting a lot less confidence in their reads now - while the first day they declared a bunch of reads on players, and also gave a full readslist, today they’re having some doubts. I need to think more on this but my gut feels their lost-feeling posts today are pure. I’m also inclined to townlean the switch - they were clearly capable of projecting confidence yesterday, so there’s not really much reason to stop doing that.*
*There’s some arguments for why w!Luxy does this, which I have yet to think through. Like, one can say Luxy is worried about looking bad from my flip but wants to push me. Or that now that earlygame is over, they’re worried about their reads looking unsubstantiated/overconfident, and therefore wolfy. Many such explanations - the May in my head
But rn none of those seem super likely
Leafia is in her towny postcount meta.
She’s aware of this tell, and that I know it, but in FAM4 wolfchat tutuu pinged Leafia, warning that her that May and I know this, and will likely wolfread her for posting a ton. Leafia proceeded to post 189 times d1 anyway. So it still holds IMO
I should still look back at some other towngames where Leafia was pushed, to see if I can find the same fireyness there
nyaaaaaaaaaaaaa cool
I no longer want catbae checked
while I’m still a bit concerned they are gonna powerwolf and run away with the game if they’re wolf, if they’re town they’re gonna get nightkilled anyway so it’d be a waste of a check
given the wagons, Derps/Me are probably optimal checks
Hazard, during the game, has given me kinda tired / vibes
skimming in their ISO I don’t get that though so I’ll have to look back and find where I saw that
also @Hazardwaste would you say that fits how you’ve felt
YBW is towny; idrm all of what gave me that read
I was (and am) wolfleaning Guava going into their posts
for their push on Gocj, and their push on Leafia despite having played enough games to know their meta
didn’t have anything additional that stuck out when I read through, though, which was strange
overall a bit concerned that I don’t have enough wolfreads
though, I haven’t looked at Hazard/kii yet and there’s a decent chance of a wolf in there
there’s also Kanave/Gocj/Bystander/Jarek (looking a bit less at Kanave/Jarek there tho)
a red peek is more valuable, yeah, but a green peek on Guava is a lot less valuable than one on Derps/Me, because we’re actually being wagoned rn
and I’m not confident enough on w!Guava for that trade to be worth it