Singers FM - Day 4 [10/20] - Thread 1

[Zugzwang]

@catbae

i see that meta but i don’t really like giving someone a pass for not really doing anything

I mean
I don’t like it either (and obviously it’s not too hard to fake, so I’m only town leaning Wazza rn), but if it’s towny, it’s towny.
Like, take Bionic as an example. I’m not a fan of how they play as town, and tunneling someone super hard isn’t very difficult to fake - but if someone consistently displays one behavior as town, and another as wolf, it’s AI whether you like it or not

[catbae]

the problem with that particular meta read imo is it’s not impossible for even a skilled scum to have a game where they’re not super into it day 1 or even intentionally lay low. So I don’t like to townread someone for that reason. If you want to argue they’d be a bad Day 1 elim for those reasons I think that’s ~fair. But at any rate in the event wazza is town, who am I misclearing?

[Zugzwang]

@catbae

But at any rate in the event wazza is town, who am I misclearing?

idk
I’m going over people now

[catbae]

aight take your time but i’m probably going to sleep soon

i will try to read your walls in response to me earlier but no promises of anything in detail (and i don’t feel you’re that likely to be scum as of right now regardless)

[Kiiruma]

@guavagudetama avoiding the question?
Guess Guava’s just ignoring this during pride month, the shame. Sad times.

[Brakuren]

he’s still in the closet

[catbae]

this is a very nice explanation that i assume is not actually all that hard to fake. #2762 is fine in terms of the explanations provided.
individually they probably wouldn’t change my read at all, I think your later posts toward me were exhibiting genuine paranoia though especially with how I had been ignoring those posts

[catbae]

anyway GN

this is a fun game. i expect it’ll be challenging but i’m enjoying the people in it~

[jail]

@catbae

Okay, so let me explain why I thought/think Zugzwang is scummy. This isn’t a full confidence read, don’t get mistaken by me going in-depther here - I mainly just want to make my thought process clear to @jail . Zug felt like a candidate for me to apply pressure to, not necessarily my preferred elim.

Summary

But to start off maybe I’ll talk about theory. I think a lot of people look for scum in people who are “not being towny”, which usually involves lurking or posting filler, but in general I don’t find scum often exhibit those behaviors unless they’re really inexperienced or polarized. Scum are going to want to try to blend in , to appear town while not doing things that actively harm the scum win condition, and when I try to read active players this is what I look for a lot of the time - someone who is giving the appearance of contributing without saying much. And I think Zug, at least from what I’d seen early, fit that profile.

To start with, his opening is pretty fluff-heavy - I don’t think this is particularly alignment indicative and likely falls to playstyle, but is important as framing context. The first real read he gives is on Kanave, coming from the exchange #348 → #356 → #358 → #365 . I don’t eally buy this as a real read? It comes a little too free for what is a pretty nothng sequence from Kanave, and I don’t really believe someone would townread her simply for saying she forgot who she was scumredign and the reads weren’t really real.

I’ve already covered #711/#716, but in general it feels like a very superficial thing to call scummy - shading gocj for a pretty harmless post. It’s a reachand it’s the type of reach I often see come from scum straining to find a real reason to scumread someone.

This is followed by a post in response to being asked about leafia, #757, which is pretty tepid and inconclusive, ending up in nullscum, but dressed up in a lot of words.

#785 feels like it’s trying to diminish jail giving a townread on YBW, but it doesn’t really go anywhere with the exchange (followup in #786/#787/#800. This is my question - what’s the point of this exchange? Does Zug seem to care about YBW’s alignment? is Zug trying to sort jail with these posts? Or is he posting solely to make conversation? I can’t see at least at a glance where this conversation is supposed to lead.

Then there’s a lot of fluff following from that point, next substantive post is #964 which is a pretty tepid ddefense of “leafia is just beign like leafia”, which to me is a readscum often make because it’s easier to fall back on that type of meta in order to project a higher level of certainty than a townsperson usually has.

I think his handling of derps in response to luxy’s scumread feels a little opportunistic - asks about volume #1121, gives two bits of meta #1123/#1124, links a recent scumgame #1129 and votes him #1130. Now, I had said at the time the wagon was an explicit pressure wagon, and I was fine with that. But it’s also an instance where if Derps is town (which is what I’m leaning now), scum would look to possibly join the wagon in an opportunistic fashion. And it bothers me that Zug went to the effort of digging up a past scumgame from derps, but if you look at the timestamps it was only a few minutes to find the game, followeed by an immediate vote - so I don’t really think Zug ever actually bothered to read the game he linked, which suggests to me he was doing it to appear contributive but didn’t actually care to do the meta check on Derps himself.

He shades Creature in #1161/#1164. Is this a bad read? I thought it was suspect at the time so it feels cheap to ding him for it now, but it’s a read I can see scum making in that situation. My problem I guess is that Zug doesn’t really seem that interested in actually investigating/sorting the more active posters. It’s very easy to make pushes based on things like activity, it’s a lot harder to actively investigate people and parse their posts fior meaning. So do kind of like that he voted Bionic and then claimed it was a test to get Bionic to towntell, but that’s a minor note in what is otherwise a very safe ISO.

I think somewhere after this point is close to when I voted him so everything after would be post-hoc justification here, but to the point zug feels like someone giving the appearance of contributing to the game without…actually saying all that much.

I thought the “not w/w” read in #1167 was a joke, but it’s ap[parently serious based on #1179, and this hits another pet tell of mine - giving "not w/w"reads on Day 1 is a great way to appear like you’re contributing without actually saying anything meaningful at all and still keeping your options open. (caught PProph off it on Day 1 a few years ago, didn’t have the guts to push it through). It’s just a read that is unlikely toactually be useful at all.

Beyond that point…I don’t really see zug developing a worldview, or actually trying to figure people out. He’s asking a lot of questions which is a way to appear engaged, but it never seems to lead anywhere. It’s just making conversation but I can’t see any point where he’s actually looking for scum.

Writing all this made me feel like I’m convincing myself to scumread him more, which is a good way to get confirmation biased but I don’t have many other people I’d likely consider for a vote here.

q

@Zugzwang

jail’s progression on me, and their emotions around it, are very towny

He gets the impression everyone is wolfreading me - if he’s town defending me, it’s easy to get that impression, because he sees no one being swayed by his confident read, showing that the thread isn’t listening. Whereas, if Jail was wolf, he’d have a realistic view of how many people are pushing me, since he’d be thinking about how and whether he can get me misexed.

Quotes

@jail

i just cant see this vision everyone else is seeing plz help me see it cuz if im wrong im not gonna stop being wrong unless people try to help me understand it lol

@jail

crazy read to make considering everyone else seems to be able to see this wolf zug except me

The above pretty explicitly shows that he believes everyone else is against me. Also, the way Jail tinfoils:

@jail

ykw i can just be totally wrong but that sucks im so tired of being loudly wrong

@jail

VOTE: zug

ok we try strats

@jail

this post is pretty cool thanks

i never saw either of these and i was starting to get cold feet in general on my townread on u but nya u are still villagery

fits well with that view. When you feel the entire thread is against you, it’s very natural to wonder if you’re the wrong one. Versus if you accurately see that there’s just two people, it’s not too concerning.

He shows annoyance about me being pushed at multiple points - if he’s a wolf, he’s happy I’m being pushed, and doesn’t actually want to prevent me from being exed. And the way he’s expressed that annoyance is hard to fake.

Quotes / Elaboration / Devil’s Advocate

crazy posts to put next to eachother

[jail]

did i forget to

[jail]

oh no

[jail]

yall are gonna have to forgive me for this one

[Gocj]

Jail… … …

[Brakuren]

[jail]

i havr never seen this word used in mafia context lmao

[jail]

IM SO SORRY I DIDNT EVEN THINK OF IT i am actually i legitimately only realized it like 5 seconds after posting i am so embarrassed

[Brakuren]

Hazard misspelled the word and I thought he was talking about something else LOL

[jail]

i thought he was calling me out

[jail]

can catbae and zug both be town as a treat tbh

[jail]

?? both of them clearly had lots to say. and i especially want to point out that zug has an extremely detailed process into my slot and it lowkey scares me but also makes me think does wolf zug deadass do this?? would this really be a pocket that is this worth it? mannn idek atp.

i feel surprised at how dignified and good faithful they acted with eachother and im not exactly sure if this is because of the posting coincidence or what. am not super sure. it gives me good vibes overall kya