also as for this
idk how Iād play this as wolf in general
I wouldnāt make that post though, for fear of it coming off as TMI or BS
one of the problems Iāve had in my recent wolfgames is being unable to judge whether that kind of reasoning is realistic
nyaaaaaaaaaaa I am too tired to continue rn
so Iām posting where Iām at now + misc thoughts in another post
Reads with * are ones I didnāt fully analyze rn
Strong town
Jail
Medium town
Bionic
Lean town
Wazza
Derps
Luxy*
Leafia*
Light town
Someone
Null
Brakuren
Catbae
Creature
Wolflean
Guava*
Jail is detailed in 2750. Iām very confident here and honestly a little bit of me considered faking a green peek on him to ensure people sheep this even if I go over, but Iām not doing that out of policy.
Bionic is in his town meta - while it is a fakable meta, heās consistently done this as town, and not done it as wolf.
Wazza read is this:
Derps I find towny for the way theyāve shared their role so openly*, and theyāre no longer frozen / lowposting. It does concern me that theyāre not making any confident pushes though; they tend to do that as town. (Hence why theyāre in lean town instead of medium.)
*This is a towntell in general, but given what I know of Derps I also buy this:
Someone is for MechTM (not the stuff mentioned in thread). Iāll not reveal more now. Off dayplay Iād put them at null; I donāt think their miller claim is AI, given theyāre good at making fakeclaims (for the average player itād be towny though).
Brak I havenāt seen anything towny or hard to fake, though to be fair itās 1 AM when Iām looking through this so I could be missing things. Coming into the ISO I had thought their various fishes (namely: [asking the source of Mayās discord message, and then the day it was from] and [asking for the players who won the Derps wolfgame I linked]) were towny, but upon thinking about it, theyāre accustomed to these types of fishes so I think I was overweighting that.
Thereās an argument to TR Brak for:
Because it makes him look worse when he doesnāt get nightkilled, but I donāt believe that. Also thereās an argument that wolves have too much voting power if Brak is a wolf (assuming 4-5 wolves) but that only maaaaybe holds water if thereās 5 wolves IMO.
Luxy initially (all of yesterday) read like a town leader to me, and I was under the impression theyāre pretty experienced. Today they feel kinda lost? I think itās that theyāre projecting a lot less confidence in their reads now - while the first day they declared a bunch of reads on players, and also gave a full readslist, today theyāre having some doubts. I need to think more on this but my gut feels their lost-feeling posts today are pure. Iām also inclined to townlean the switch - they were clearly capable of projecting confidence yesterday, so thereās not really much reason to stop doing that.*
*Thereās some arguments for why w!Luxy does this, which I have yet to think through. Like, one can say Luxy is worried about looking bad from my flip but wants to push me. Or that now that earlygame is over, theyāre worried about their reads looking unsubstantiated/overconfident, and therefore wolfy. Many such explanations - the May in my head
But rn none of those seem super likely
Leafia is in her towny postcount meta.
Sheās aware of this tell, and that I know it, but in FAM4 wolfchat tutuu pinged Leafia, warning that her that May and I know this, and will likely wolfread her for posting a ton. Leafia proceeded to post 189 times d1 anyway. So it still holds IMO
I should still look back at some other towngames where Leafia was pushed, to see if I can find the same fireyness there
nyaaaaaaaaaaaaa cool
I no longer want catbae checked
while Iām still a bit concerned they are gonna powerwolf and run away with the game if theyāre wolf, if theyāre town theyāre gonna get nightkilled anyway so itād be a waste of a check
given the wagons, Derps/Me are probably optimal checks
Hazard, during the game, has given me kinda tired / vibes
skimming in their ISO I donāt get that though so Iāll have to look back and find where I saw that
also @Hazardwaste would you say that fits how youāve felt
YBW is towny; idrm all of what gave me that read
I was (and am) wolfleaning Guava going into their posts
for their push on Gocj, and their push on Leafia despite having played enough games to know their meta
didnāt have anything additional that stuck out when I read through, though, which was strange
overall a bit concerned that I donāt have enough wolfreads
though, I havenāt looked at Hazard/kii yet and thereās a decent chance of a wolf in there
thereās also Kanave/Gocj/Bystander/Jarek (looking a bit less at Kanave/Jarek there tho)
a red peek is more valuable, yeah, but a green peek on Guava is a lot less valuable than one on Derps/Me, because weāre actually being wagoned rn
and Iām not confident enough on w!Guava for that trade to be worth it