I think your stupid role is NAI.
To answer your hypothetical thinking, yes I really THINK that 
Just kidding with you gul/gal. I’m obviously mafia because we are approaching endgame and I survived like Eliza and Emilia in Silent Hill game
(Okay seriously now, you don’t have to last-minute doubt me, if I would be mafia I think it would be pretty simple for me to pull a Phraze to never show up and pretend I’m learning intensive french and german)
@Zorvo @beancat @Marluna @CRichardFortressLies @Italy @Cape90 @Magnus @Jaiden
Hi. Here is my final appeal to you all.
Stop believing Jarek’s claim. This should be a policy execution.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Balancing_Possibilities_Versus_Probabilities
Read this article through, please. Just… read it. Think through things thoroughly.
…I was going to continue with the alliteration here, but I won’t make you suffer so. Jarek talked about how in those shorter-form social deduction games, they like to claim the role that people are least likely to fakeclaim, and what sounds unlikelier than this?
I’ll repeat what I said to Silviu:
Kill Jarek now. Vote them out. We can resolve Zorvo and I later. We need a wolf dead, and if Jarek’s lying about their role like this, it’s probably one of the stronger MPRs.
I have a role which I can prove exists tomorrow. You will know that I am for certain not a stronger mafia power role (because I’m not a wolf, but I don’t have time to convince you all of it). I don’t think we win if you execute me today.
hi im not the person to ping here but probabilities arent real and are poisoning your mind
using probability it is fairly easy to distort truth and even when genuine just doesnt work here
Then vote Jarek with us. Originally I thought that maybe he indeed doesn’t have the confidence for this but I think in retrospection it’s kinda dumb of me to believe that.
im also not a fan of that
i kinda comitted myself to just floating in the void and judging you people
(i dont know what to do and would rather have others do it for me)
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Jarek claimed in 90’ remake odd-night CPR which is actually a mafia role.
And he’s claiming the same role right now.
I honestly didn’t think too far for this game, I think we’re losing again
and? shit happens
judging current game roles on what that player rolled before doesnt work
Yeah, the probabilities I provided are not intended to be taken literally, and I can’t say anything concrete about the chances of whether Jarek has this role beyond “extremely unlikely”, but it is still often a very useful device to put an estimate to these things.
Probabilities are a very effective way to lie. They are also a very effective way to see the truth. I use these roughly estimated probabilities as a device to make decisions all the time, because my base, human understanding of things exaggerates unlikely scenarios, just like everyone else’s. It’s why people buy lottery tickets. It’s why people worry so much about plane crashes, or poisoned Halloween candy, or whatever it is.
Sometimes you have to put numbers to things to show yourself why something is unlikely, and this is.
I hope I’m taking the right choice here.
this was the opposite of convincing
good job guys
Jaiden mafia. Now let’s point and laugh at her for being so mallefique
Yeah, but judging player behavior does work. Jarek has expressed that they like to fakeclaim whatever the last thing people would expect as a fakeclaim is. They saw their role from last game, went “nobody would EVER claim the same role twice in a row as scum”, and claimed it. A thousand times more likely than even-night CPR doctor actually being in this setup ever would be.
I gotta play for the crowd as well as you. If I make a token effort to convince you, it’s not my fault when we lose to Jarek.
Man I hate when roles do not have a bigger impact than the social aspect
Also if May is getting one more vote, she’s getting hammered
VOTE: Ma-
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