tutuu is exempt from this
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its just ishmael and lilith im not overthinking it
/intent to vote ishmael
if nobody votes until a few hours before eod or if youbie doesnt tell me to vote lilith im voting ishmael around then
i could not of i went to sleep at what is like your 4pm
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good morning usa
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I realized two things
First its optimal for @YoubutWorse to place the first vote. If she votes and the game doesnt end the other person is mechanically outed wolf. 50%
If me or the other town makes the first vote - sure, we have an initial 67% chance of hitting the wolf. But thats not enough. Youbie will need to make an accurate 50/50 read, and the second town also needs to make an accurate 50/50 read
So the chances for that to work out is one quarter of 67%
Or, if the person agrees sheeping youbie, still its only 33%
Youbie basically gets a dayvig today. She should vote. Shed put herself in a thunderdome as an IC. We normally dont get that luxury in Fxes. So its good to take advantage of that im pretty sure
The second thing:
I am suspicious that lilith didnt tell us this. Lilith claimed lots of experience with the setup. She talked a lot of theory, whats good, whats not. I am suspicious that she didnt tell us that its optinal for youbie to vote first. If we were left to our own devices we might have played suboptimally
Third thing:
If lilith and ishmael are the wolves the reason for their disappearance is because they didnt have to do much for me and youbie to push each other day 1. They could have decided āwe dont need to do anything again d2 just let them kill each other lolā
thatās only on day 3 22
it feels like 22 knew that and is trying to get ybw to vote so they can flashhamner potentially
I fell asleep agaij
my absolutely insane theorem is that its ishmael-beancat and tutuu is stupid. actually that last part isnt part of the theorem it just helps with the calculations to plug in a constant like that
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- why is tutuu good now?
great question ybw who is the only person I am currently talking to. Hi ybw. Partially insane poe but WE ARE GETTING TO THAT TRUST ME WE ARE GETTING TO THAT but also this
Tutuu is expecting me to pull cheap tricks and hide important information to new players of a setup. Owch. Okay. You donāt think I have honor I get it I get it NOPE i think tutuu is projecting the fact that its absolutely what he would do in this situation as scum Which makes me believe he is just town here. Like if he realised weād be thunderdomed as scum he absolutely would not be putting it on display like this
To briefly defend myself since that may be useful I, again, havent played this setup in like 2 to 3 years etc etc Who cares NEXT POINT
- why is ishmael bad now?
Hi again also ybw and probably maybe tutuu this time since I pinged him earlier in the post making fun of him. Hi tutuu.
beancat only posts this if paired with ishmael or town. like categorically There is no way beancat risks putting tutuu at 2/2 (thats really fun to say)
there is no beancat-tutuu world now
Iām not sure if ishmaelās lurkyness is to defend against cfds onto tutuu or to not take a larger role in the ybw misexe but I believe it to be one of them AND if it cant be beancat-tutuu then it is absolutely ishmael fmpov
TLDR::::
- tutuu projected his scumplay onto me on accident, proceeded to not do that spewing him as town
- beancat risked tutuus life for no reason (lol) meaning that beancat-tutuu is not a potential team even if you ignore the above
If you agree on me on either of those and agree that im awesome (town) its ishmael.
And like if John 8:7-11 applies to mafia I should PROBABLY let the IC vote here but ALSO I think taking the initiative looks good for me but ALSO ALSO im a coward but also also im gonna go do some cleaning lol
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Oh ok so it is just lilith tutuu lmao
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Iām not voting first, its literally always worse for me to vote first (from a statistical perspective) assuming both wolves are around.
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Since i only have a 50/50 chance of hitting a wolf I am the least likely player to vote a wolf. However if another player votes a different player, theres only a 16.5% chance (i think its been a second since i took stats) of both players in that crossvote being town and the game ending. So, itās always better to get another player to vote.
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Now which one is the godfather?
Probably lilith? Since lilith early on was trying to push Tutuu its possivlr they were going for a buss on tootsie so that it could gain cred. When I started hard pushing tutuu and basically turning that into my pelt (and also pushing a lilith/tutuu world) itās possible and likely imo that the plan changed to reflect the new situation.
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Tutuu pushing on Ishmael all day is also like, very pairing for the both of them. I think beancat has been pretty obviously town and I can follow their thought process. Ishmael, while wrong, I can def follow their thought process at times and understand why they pushed and voted me. I canāt do the same for lilith and tutuu
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Also like What. Huh. What is āprojecting scumplayā. How does this make tutuu town. How does this make tutuu so solidly town in ur eyes.
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And the point against beancat pinging thr only other person who hadnāt voted is like, so funny lmao. If you just said you had poed beancat out I would still sus you but Iād get it but like thats the most obvious stretch that I donāt think can even be conf bias
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