Umineko FM: Land of the Golden Witch - Thread 1 - Days 1 & 2

oh lmao

i think geyde is experienced enough with mafia to do that on his own but you are probably still correct (especially because a lot of this playerlist is fairly experienced)

Took so long finding that quote you already said it LOL

just wanted to say, no i didnā€™t, i only asked how your view would change with the knowledge iā€™m v:

so this feels like a subtle attempt at further trying to tie me to katze, which is really what your wolfread of me always boils down to, some associative read that iā€™m a wolf with someone else because raisins

i donā€™t have a strong townread on katze but donā€™t see reason to go there atm, unless visor or spf thinks thereā€™s something there i guess

What even would be a team of inexperienced players? Like I said idk anyone here except Ruby so idk how experienced everyone is

will I actually have to attempt to read Katze today?

wow nobody could have guessed thanks for sharing bestie

we all have our bad games

i think wolves needed to save you because they donā€™t have enough players present in the thread. i think there are 1-2 relevant wolves and the rest are just afk, which is why if you are a wolf they canā€™t afford to let you die

i didnā€™t even think about you being a stronger role but thatā€™s another explanation, and like you saying you were a weaker role doesnā€™t really contradict this? i think itā€™s easy to feign the ā€œnot caring about surviving thingā€ when votes quietened down leading to eod regardless

probably would be beneficial given i am in some peoples direct PoE

what exactly is arctic trying to accomplish by doing this

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Katze is so fun to read because even though Katze is a high poster itā€™s still a battle to try and read Katze for some reason

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if you think katze is town then what do i have to gain from tying you to katze

literally one of those players I never figured out how to read

suggest that we are both wolves with an agenda, obviously?

why are you rushing to defend him from me

and then what happens when katze flips town

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arent you implying that there HAS to be a wolf in the stronger players who are not obvious town to you category, aka me/zack/maybe visor

definitely some explanations for it lol

youā€™ll make up a new reason, exactly like how i was w/w with seth and then once you townread seth, seth being town magically meant i was a wolf

Iā€™m not, Iā€™m simply pointing out that there may be a hole in your logic

i donā€™t do this shit some people do where I just let people say silly things because I agree with them, I donā€™t really think arctic is a villager but I think the reads on him should be solid

ok so who are the afk wolves voting heisenberg to save me and why do i make myself an appealing target even for wifom reasons if i feel like i have the carry the game

i can just keep my mouth shut and not say my role sucks

or actively try harder to get geyde pushed over me

6:45 pm

I think this all tracks well enough at first glance, so sure. Also I have a lot of respect for spf and felt like a lot of the things she was doing yesterday were strange for her which she admitted and then she went and got a pelt so you know just a casual spf day one lol.

It was one post for you/ruby sure but it is just so utterly needless for a wolf to ever be like ā€˜hey wolf buddy, think youā€™re rand w for this not at all mattering reason.ā€™ I am sure it only stuck out to me because I replied to it.

So letā€™s talk mafia theory with Achromatic because I find it fun. There are basically levels to a mafia game and you can compare them to levels of hell in Danteā€™s inferno. Level 1 is town dominant, the wolves just get pushed around and everything is always as it seems. SF3 in Season 7 of champs was like this where a player of my skill level was reduced to tinfoiling for no reason by day 3 because it was boring. The town won after lynching 3 scum in a row on day 3.

Then there are level 9 games which are incredibly wolf sided and the town is just snowed the entire time, and everything in between.

So I ask myself: what level of hell are we in right now? Itā€™s a day by day judgment. Lynching a wolf, lots of people with healthy sized town lists, a lot of good direction from active players, I am of the belief weā€™re in a lower level of hell right now.

So how does this effect my process? Well, day 1 we generated a lot of additional activity by challenging a now known Heisen flip and none of those counters stuck. What does that tell me? Either heavy bussing or lack of thread control by the mafia or maybe even downright idleness.

I look at the Heisen wagon and I see mostly people I socially like so I donā€™t think it is heavy bussing. This could, notably, be a mistake. However with spf and now dead Hally and now dead Eliza leading it, itā€™s like ā€˜thereā€™s only so many spots on this wagon for a busā€™ you know?

So then we go into the other world, lack of thread control. You and I were similar a lot yesterday, you are right, but I think it would be stupid of me to discount that we had two very different motives for doing what we were doing. I wanted information (I got it and had my cake in the end, I got people to dance for me and still netted the wolf we started with, beyond pleasing that I did this tbh) but you wanted ???. If you are town you are, of course, being earnest and straight forward and thatā€™s all well and good. We have probably 5-6 wolves left so there are many more town than not town left and who knows about 3Ps. The point is, maybe you are just an unlucky villager who took a right turn when I went left and weā€™re friends and donā€™t quite know it yet.

Orā€¦ you are a wolf who painfully tried to protect a power role with every trick in your wolf game and you just didnā€™t have the thread pull to do it. You got the breaking baddies to listen to you (or maybe two of them are you, I guess) but in the end Heisen didnā€™t even return to the thread to self-pres. So in either W you or W ruby world (which you could both be v certainly, just the two people I am pursuing right now) it points to ā€œwolves arenā€™t being heroes, wolves donā€™t have thread control and are trying their best but failing.ā€

So, what does this say about visor? I donā€™t know Visor, but when I asked what type of town he was I was told that it would be worth it for three wolves to try to jump him because heā€™s ā€˜that guy.ā€™ Well, ā€˜that guyā€™ was on the wagon early and so for the level of hell I am in thatā€™s enough for me to write him off as town until things go much, much worse for us. Because wolves bussing early is more of a upper level of a high for this example thing. You start with the simple, see how it works, and IF that doesnā€™t work build more complex thoughts and systems to explain the new, less desirable game state.

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