Umineko FM: Land of the Golden Witch - Thread 1 - Days 1 & 2

He could be. If at any point you think someone is 100% scum for day 1 behavior you are biasing yourself. I think it is likely but if you are like dead certain you are thinking wrong regardless of accuracy. Build a v arctic world as if he just flipped and compare that to your current model. Emotional arguments are frankly beneath me so i dont factor that in.

[eevee is a wolf]
[arctic is probably a wolf]
[i can’t in good conscience engage with night’s read]
[but i don’t agree with it]
[still waiting on @Ruby]
[get back to me about sod once you can]

Noting that i gave Gyrlander time to town up and he has not, he has not done anything with the time ive given him by not pressuring him and breathing down his neck.

Okay :footprints::footprints::footprints:

Noted.

@ruby

can you explain why you think my vote doesn’t have any reasoning when my case was the reason your wagon formed

yeah I’m pretty sure Ruby is just a wolf

feels like they saw my vote and weren’t actually paying attention to see my case on them cause there was a lot of shitposts between the two and they just naively assumed there was nothing there so they could push back on it

well that was easy at least

I will refrain from saying that.

Mostly cause it would call for more explanations.

But like… It’s mostly me picking up information when reading through.

I dont think they are a wolf based on day 1

Anyway I’m in a shitty mood and not in the mood for mafia today so I’m out. Bye

no

Devil’s advocate: what stops town from missing it in between all the shit posts?

I mean in theory nothing but to me I think it’s more likely that a wolf would do it because they’re digging for dirt they can use to attack someone who’s pushing them

Ruby likely saw how many posts I have and assumed from the fact that my case wasn’t attached to the vote that she could just say my vote was baseless and get away with it which she did until I called her on it

@ruby

my last wolf game I planned out my course of action from day 1-3 where I would aggro another villager to get repeated towncred and avoid end of days that wouldn’t fit my agenda

I also put my teammate under strict regulations to avoid needless shenanigans at ends of day and I always talked with them to make sure they knew the plan of attack

In my last wolf game before that me and my team worked as a team to make sure we coordinated our plan on each end of day to the last possible second, whether it be messing up the wagons so that we would all be clear if a wolf flipped or by repeatedly CFDing villagers to look like we cared about the end game or by all aggroing on one villager to win lylo

Do you think I would pussy wolf

Confbiasing imo

But proceed.

also I literally said I was eating a yogurt and that I planned to show up at the last second for the drama

so yeah ur argument is bullshit on every level madam

oh yeah I agree I’m not gonna mention it since you’re correct that a villager could easily have done it

i think it’s more likely that a wolf would do it however (since it reeks of shit slinging and not them genuinely thinking of my alignment but I understand if you disagree) and it fits with a general pattern of them phoning it in and making posts that fit a wolf agenda but that could potentially be made by both alignments

its definitely not all off of d1

i think if arctic is a villager that zack is probably a wolf? i kinda think theyre just a difference check, if me/zack/arctic are v/v/v then lol, lmao even.

the thing is its hard to envision these worlds because my entire perspective is kinda shaped around these things, preflipping arctic V and making reads off of it requires a pretty huge mental effort

i think my most confident townreads (you/spf/rue/sabi) would remain the same in arctic v, although less confident-- most of my stronger townreads probably remain too? maybe id poke visor down but i dont actually know why i think this

id probably scrap my entire PoE at that point as well

min will probably bite my head off if i say it but i kinda think if arctic is town that he needs to be looked at way closer. i know in that world arctic will leave a legacy min V read, and i… might still agree, but i think he’d need to be held somewhat accountable? or at least under some scrutiny. id have to look at his progressions today because i know hes taken a fairly big turn and it might be a good or bad look under a microscope

yes i realize that i have called min w/w with arctic today. i kinda am not sure how i feel about that pairing anymore.

obviously a lot of my issues with nightingale do come with “i think they have high w/w equity with arctic” – if arctic is a villager then… well, actually, id like to ask rue what she thinks about this, but i have an opinion here

id also probably say that the lower impact “afks” would be >rand to contain 2ish wolves

zorvo is a name that keeps popping up in my mind but i dont know why either. i actually think they might not be w/w with arctic for a dumb reason (zorvo spent a lot of D1 calling me/hally never v/v and hally is flipped V and he is townreading me for today for being the CW to a wolf, arctic is insinuating the EoD is obviously w/w, i think if they shared an agenda it would be extremely easy for zorvo to join that bandwagon)

so i guess if arctic is V then id look at him again but

i dont want to do that :upside_down_face:

why
why^2 (if arctic V then what am i iyo)

im a villager, arctic is a wolf

is your read on night at all changed?

it’s funny because I disagree with this a lot

i think there’s probably one wolf between night/arctic