I’m typically not that dumb. This is a one time thing.
Would it make it better if I just told you I never checked who died in the night before going off on my little analysis
Did you have anyone in mind you thought would have been the night kill over Leafia? That is to say, before you learned who died, who would you have expected the night target to be? It is okay if you do not know for sure, just give your best guess.
I mean by default, anyone who voted on yurkin looks inherently more trustworthy and therefore a juicier target to kill than anyone who was voting chomps or off-wagon. I think that’s pretty obvious.
For that reason leafia dying makes sense. But I wouldn’t have expected it to be leafia, given they were the first vote. My reasoning for suspecting them (even if they were dead) were still legitimate thought processes - the “fresher” the vote, the lower the likelihood of whoever was voting on yurkin is a wolf that was bandwagonning. Leafia’s vote was really the only one that wasn’t “fresh” at all and was just there for shits and giggles.
If you had the choice as a W partner between voting chomps and applying a vote to your teammate, would you ever choose to vote your teammate out when without your vote they don’t even get killed?
This is why I’m saying the fresh votes are likely to be good purely because of the “benefit” of tie voting your teammate like this is far outweighed by the fact you’re down to 2 wolves with nothing to show for it.
Now that I have asked that question, I will reveal that there is one scenario I have considered which might explain Jarek’s behavior here. If Leafia was not the wolves’ intended nightkill target, but, for example, redirected it to herself (as she implied she was a protective of some kind), a wolf Jarek would feel there was no reason to check the night deaths and would assume his actual target died and Leafia was still alive.
If Magnus had not revealed Leafia was the night death before I had the chance, I was going to see if Jarek seemed to think somebody else had died in the night, but unfortunately my plans were cut short there.
I am not confident in this world, in part because I believe the way Jarek went about this day was somewhat villagery – it has been higher-energy and has been essentially clearing four players it did not need to clear – but it is certainly a possibility in my mind. If Jarek is a wolf, his trust that the yurkin wagon was pure probably comes from a fear that he had outed himself by opposing it, which, scrolling back through his post history, I can actually see fairly easily.
@Ishmael, when you are around, I would like to talk.
I’m attempting to not give away something which can lead to a bonus vote for mafia.
If mafia can still guess the dead’s abilities.
If mafia cannot then I feel like them killing Leafia was a… misplay.
Since she said her ability was quite loud. As I can now confirm.
It is quite a quiet day, isn’t it?
Let me take an action, then. VOTE: Ishmael.
The mafia cannot guess the abilities of the dead. You may verify this with Zone, if you’d like. Please give more information on Leafia’s ability.
I was informed that Leafia had targeted me with something positive but my vote was made negative for the next day.
IDK what that positive thing is, could’ve been a heal/protect, could’ve been an alignment check (Since those are positive for town / yield a positive result)
Interesting. How would you say this impacts how I should see your alignment?
I don’t particularly care what you think about it.
I chose to not reveal things because I’d not enquired about whether or not dead people could lead to a secret vote for the evil team. That’s probably all you can analyse from there.
I’m playing it straight and narrow and will be voting to basically stop what I consider to be a misexecution if I think one will happen.
Well, that question was a bit direct to expect anything else, but I am glad that you at least did not attempt to leverage Leafia’s ability to confirm yourself as town. I appreciate it.
It is a little quiet. People aren’t even arguing for or against my push on sultan.
I’d call it unsettling but I know the reality is most people are just slanking 
I am personally willing to say my push on sultan is not entirely because I think they are a wolf and nothing else, but I won’t be elabourating any further than that aside from the fact that I do think they are a wolf and am happy to abide by these conditions.
I suppose if we are pursuing the world in which Jarek thought that Leafia had not died because he had submitted a kill on somebody other than Leafia, it would almost certainly have to be Kiiruma that had died in Leafia’s place. Leafia protects Kiiruma from death in exchange for Kiiruma’s vote being negative the following day. It is possible.
@Kiiruma, what are your thoughts on this theory? Do you think there is any chance that Leafia chose to use a bodyguard ability on you over somebody else, and do you think there is any chance that the kill targeted you last night?
As of right now, my reads are approximately as follows:
Frostwolf103 t
Kiiruma t
Magnus t
SirDerpsAlot lt
lol lt
Jarek n
SultanOfSlam n
beancat n
Chomps lw
Aleph lw