can we try to keep this thread on topic so it’s easier for people to read up on what’s been discussed pls
you’re welcome to talk about omega strikers in the cookie thread or a new thread
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OGI and angleshooting don’t necessarily cause game integrity issues on their own. Someone noticing in Discord that someone in their game is suddenly online on a lot more after the rand. It’s information that everyone in the game could have access to if they really wanted to, and it still requires an inference (which is to say that it doesn’t guarantee the player is mafia). It’s also easily foiled by making it so you always display offline during Mafia games. However, it still sucks and should be banned (this is considered angleshooting on MU at least). A lot of statistics is arcane to me unless I sit down and look up a bunch of stuff again, and I have taken multiple university level stats courses and have an applied mathematics degree (computer science). It’s a similar thing in my mind where it’s arguably something outside the game (meta taken to the most extreme it can) that can be used to make inferences, but it can be hard for a lot of people to engage with it because they don’t understand it. I think limiting the scope (a subset of all games) and requiring someone to do the work themselves (or require they at least pretend to) ameliorates most of the bad/icky stuff that I think can arise from it.
Statistical arguments are not unpleasant to me and I’m hesitant to treat them like they’ll universally be believed. The idea of a wolf player who’s playing a great game but someone finds some numbers giving them a 51% chance of being wolf causing them to die feels… exaggerated to me.
I don’t disagree that super in-depth word choice stuff developed in private creates inequality between players and feels awkward and uncomfortable. I wouldn’t mind it being banned all that much (though I don’t advocate for it either). But I also do not personally feel that statistics-based arguments are at the same level as, like, heavy AtE or angleshooting in terms of making mafia games feel bad to play. For me.
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and this is why I think requiring disclosure/open source is bad
“no legit here’s my data and tools, run it urself” makes this way worse
The wolf probably thought they were outed and self-immolated in that world. And again that’s fine if it’s not like WD6K v0.02a-1 that can do that stuff at will, I sort of don’t care. Just "big data SPREADSHEETS prove " is just like the most tedious version of this that I feel like is fine to chuck.
Heavy AtE is emotionally intense and forces you to choose between being a polite person and winning the game. Heavy angleshooting forces you to be “always playing the game”, micromanaging your Discord status and avoiding talking to your friends for the sake of the game. Statistics… can form part of a wolfcase against you, but I think the people in this thread are exaggerating both their actual effectiveness (as an illicit statistics user myself) and their perceived effectiveness (I honestly do not believe most people will actually blindly trust statistics enough to make the game unplayable unless there is polarisation also visible to human eye, in which case… you didn’t need statistics to find it).
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you don’t even understand who you’re fucking dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you’re scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you’re a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you are an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good
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I am not advocating for banning statistical based argumentation! I have never advocated for this! I would argue against this! My position is we should ban the industrial mass mafia data scraping analyzing tool that is posted on GitHub
damn wait hold up I threw by not using this on caitlin in splatfest revenge
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It’s already banned?
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It’s already banned. I assumed you must have been referring to things that are not already banned
I didn’t literally mean LLM/ChatGPT. I’ll edit it.
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you don’t even understand who you’re fucking dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you’re scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you’re a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you are an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good
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sometimes I love elijah
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why
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shit like this is just
very funny
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you don’t even understand who you’re fucking dealing with. I have advanced degrees in statistics and computer science and I’ve created a simple program with an advanced algorithm that I’ve been working on for years. I have read and tracked over 600 forum mafia games, recording every fencesit, every association, every scumtell. I have over 50 documented, specific forms and versions of scumtells and towntells, and at this point I can just skim a thread and put it into my machine. I have reduced the cacophonous lies of forum mafia into a pure, beautiful mathematical formula, and it’s led me to literal hundreds of wins.
Why do I think you’re scum? I don’t deign to think about you myself. Instead, I thought about how to create a program to know mathematically whether you are scum. I don’t need to think about you, because my algorithm has determined that you’re scum to an 87% certainty. You cannot beat those numbers at this stage in the game. We’re talking about a mere 13% chance that you’re a town member so monumentally bad at this game that you fooled a computer program that has successfully identified over 500 unique mafia players as scum with over 96% accuracy. Your only defense, in other words, is that you are so naturally scummy that you are an outlier.
Whether you’re town or mafia, this is a message from mathematics – you are bad at this game. You have played so scummy that a perfectly objective process has labeled you as scum. Whether that makes you bad at playing your specific rolecard or bad in general, there is no question that behaving like scum means you have not performed well. Consider this a welcome wakeup call, as hundreds have before you: If a player decides you’re scum, it’s possible you just got unlucky, but if a computer program can be that certain of your alignment, there are some serious holes in your game, because it means you’re scum in an objective sense, rather than a subjective one. For that reason, I’m willing to roll that die and take that 13% risk, because even if there’s a small chance you might be town, there’s not even a remote chance that you’re good
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Now, everybody remember to hide genuine feedback about computers in your copypastas, we don’t want the FoL mods to have a good time,
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anyways post-post-edit I think this is definitely attributing way more power to the tool than currently exists (or ever will, realistically) lol
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