Wrogn 2 - MAFIA VICTORY

[Zugzwang]

admittedly I want to find Leafia town, and I’m also already thinking it’s just Ash/Spooky
so I might be a bit biased here
@tutuu what do you think about this thbthtbhtbhtbthbthb

[tutuu]

sure!

[tutuu]

yesss im a ladies man

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

sure!

NYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I don’t mean in a “I’m right. please accept this” way I mean a “ponder my argument and tell me what you think”

[tutuu]

i dont think its impossible for wolf leafia to have forgotten or lied in that post. i dont really know

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

i dont think its impossible for wolf leafia to have forgotten or lied in that post. i dont really know

nyaaaaaaaa I mean I don’t think a lot of things are impossible
but it’s not about that

relevant Mayposts thtbthbthbthbthtbhtbhtbhtbthb

@May

Balancing possibilities vs probabilities dot txt

@May

(This is both literally true and a joke about how my flexibility is a downside because I get too caught in possibilities. There’s a Mafiascum wiki article about how possibilities are antitown and probabilities are protown that is my shining beacon in the dark in times like this. I go back to it every time I get caught in this hell, except it’s not helping right now, because I think the probabilities are fairly balanced between my choices.)

it’s about what’s more likely

[Zugzwang]

oh wait the exact post I was thinking of was probably on Olivest
which is why I couldn’t find it

[Zugzwang]

ok nyaaaaaaaaa I can’t find it anyway
so sad no cure

[Zugzwang]

nyaaaaaaaaaa ok after going over Leafia in Percy Jackson FM I think the postcount tell isn’t just about arguing more as wolf

she didn’t get in drawn-out arguments in that game, and yet still had 74 posts D1
while there are towngames in the chart that have significantly less posts:

@May

Also great evidence for the “w!Leafia posts more because she gets into arguments” theory: the low red dot at D1 is this game. This is the only wolfgame she’s had where she didn’t post more than any equivalent towngame

In this game, Leafia has only 73 posts over 3 days, despite getting into an argument with Creature
so that’s pretty strong evidence she’s just town IMO

(I’m aware there’s a world where Leafia purposely posted less to fool this tell, but she has previously ignored it repeatedly in games with people who knew about it (see: FAM4 and Singers FM) so I don’t think it’s super likely)

[Zugzwang]

I should probably look over May’s posts (Mayposts ) to see if there’s anything else about it but nya

[Ash]

@Zugzwang

There are some details provided in the list and the following paragraph, but it’s not anything like a story of “I looked at A, had the thought of B, wrote C, pondered D”, etc, which is what’s difficult to fake

Is that not exactly what the following paragraph is describing?
Like, almost down to the beat: I looked at Soweli’s interactions with Chomps, had the thought that I would have to eventually file this as a null read, wrote the rest of my reads, realized that everyone else was spewed (is this how you use the word?) town from their interactions with Soweli, and reevaluated my read on Chomps accordingly.

[Zugzwang]

I didn’t find anything more on Leafia but I did find this thbthbthtbhtbthbh

@May

Here’s a (legal, compiled by hand) spreadsheet of Ash’s games here that I could find, excluding FAMs for being too annoying to count. As you can see he is not especially postcount polarised, the difference is nowhere near significant.

If you toss out the outlier of Virtuous IV (mislabeled lol there have only been 5), and the BotF:

…then you could probably say he posts less as wolf, the lowest-posting 2 games are wolfgames and the highest-posting 4 are towngames, but the threshold is tight (33.5 ppd in highest wolfgame vs 38.75 ppd in lowest towngame), the sample size is small, and this is mafia not statistics class. IV means he’s clearly shown capability to highpost as wolf, if not generally desire.

Kittens and Virtuous V are more recent wolfgames than IV, so it’s not like he’s done wolf highposting recently , but he got D1ed in Virtuous and in Kittens Game he was specifically playing to the game’s mech to be generally wolfread but with the wrong partners (and he was mech outed on the last day). I’d be cautious about trying to read Ash on postcount alone, though I think you could get somewhere by more thoughtfully analysing the underlying causes of postcount, comfort in thread and motivation

the updated posts per day:
54.5 (town, percy jackson FM)
38.5 (mafia, maybot’s combinatorics)
25.5 (mafia, kakegurui)

so this looks good thbthtbhtbthbthbt

[Zugzwang]

@Zugzwang

so this looks good thbthtbhtbthbthbt

…good, meaning “this looks good for our chances of Ash being mafia”, not “this looks good for Ash”

[Zugzwang]

@Ash

Is that not exactly what the following paragraph is describing?
Like, almost down to the beat: I looked at Soweli’s interactions with Chomps, had the thought that I would have to eventually file this as a null read, wrote the rest of my reads, realized that everyone else was spewed (is this how you use the word?) town from their interactions with Soweli, and reevaluated my read on Chomps accordingly.

not really
the main issue is that it’s not detailed enough
I think a wolf who wrote the post you did would be fine with coming up with the story you have

To be clear, not having a detailed story isn’t especially wolfy, it’s just it’s not detailed enough where it is especially towny
There are very realistic reasons (mainly forgetting) that a townie wouldn’t have a detailed story either
But there aren’t realistic reasons for a wolf to have a detailed (and consistent) story

[Ash]

Consider that neither of those games happened during a time when I couldn’t post more than a single message on D2.
Or that this discounts the fact that my D3 messages have been much longer and much more substantial than anything I wrote during Percy Jackson.

[Ash]

Not everything is a giant, elaborate, Danganronpa-esque approach to an answer.
Sometimes, it’s simply PoE.

[Chomps]

[Chomps]

you’re gonna vote me or not?

[Chomps]

or are you waiting to do it later to build a snowball and mislynch me easier?

[Ash]

I have a family thing now, so I’m not going to be here for EoD.
Will VOTE: Chomps because Arsonist w!Chomps does devastating damage to our town core if left to his own devices tonight.