Wrogn 2 - MAFIA VICTORY

[Zugzwang]

I didn’t find anything more on Leafia but I did find this thbthbthtbhtbthbh

@May

Here’s a (legal, compiled by hand) spreadsheet of Ash’s games here that I could find, excluding FAMs for being too annoying to count. As you can see he is not especially postcount polarised, the difference is nowhere near significant.

If you toss out the outlier of Virtuous IV (mislabeled lol there have only been 5), and the BotF:

…then you could probably say he posts less as wolf, the lowest-posting 2 games are wolfgames and the highest-posting 4 are towngames, but the threshold is tight (33.5 ppd in highest wolfgame vs 38.75 ppd in lowest towngame), the sample size is small, and this is mafia not statistics class. IV means he’s clearly shown capability to highpost as wolf, if not generally desire.

Kittens and Virtuous V are more recent wolfgames than IV, so it’s not like he’s done wolf highposting recently , but he got D1ed in Virtuous and in Kittens Game he was specifically playing to the game’s mech to be generally wolfread but with the wrong partners (and he was mech outed on the last day). I’d be cautious about trying to read Ash on postcount alone, though I think you could get somewhere by more thoughtfully analysing the underlying causes of postcount, comfort in thread and motivation

the updated posts per day:
54.5 (town, percy jackson FM)
38.5 (mafia, maybot’s combinatorics)
25.5 (mafia, kakegurui)

so this looks good thbthtbhtbthbthbt

[Zugzwang]

@Zugzwang

so this looks good thbthtbhtbthbthbt

…good, meaning “this looks good for our chances of Ash being mafia”, not “this looks good for Ash”

[Zugzwang]

@Ash

Is that not exactly what the following paragraph is describing?
Like, almost down to the beat: I looked at Soweli’s interactions with Chomps, had the thought that I would have to eventually file this as a null read, wrote the rest of my reads, realized that everyone else was spewed (is this how you use the word?) town from their interactions with Soweli, and reevaluated my read on Chomps accordingly.

not really
the main issue is that it’s not detailed enough
I think a wolf who wrote the post you did would be fine with coming up with the story you have

To be clear, not having a detailed story isn’t especially wolfy, it’s just it’s not detailed enough where it is especially towny
There are very realistic reasons (mainly forgetting) that a townie wouldn’t have a detailed story either
But there aren’t realistic reasons for a wolf to have a detailed (and consistent) story

[Ash]

Consider that neither of those games happened during a time when I couldn’t post more than a single message on D2.
Or that this discounts the fact that my D3 messages have been much longer and much more substantial than anything I wrote during Percy Jackson.

[Ash]

Not everything is a giant, elaborate, Danganronpa-esque approach to an answer.
Sometimes, it’s simply PoE.

[Chomps]

[Chomps]

you’re gonna vote me or not?

[Chomps]

or are you waiting to do it later to build a snowball and mislynch me easier?

[Ash]

I have a family thing now, so I’m not going to be here for EoD.
Will VOTE: Chomps because Arsonist w!Chomps does devastating damage to our town core if left to his own devices tonight.

[Chomps]

if i die disregard every single one of my reads, anyone pulling them up is wolf, i have no trust in any of them

[Chomps]

yes every single one of the 3

[Host_Account_1]

D3 Votecount

Ash (3): Marluna, Chomps, tutuu
Chomps (2): SirDerpsAlot, Ash
spookycat27 (1): Leafia

Not Voting (3): Zugzwang, Creature, spookycat27

[Creature]

I’ll probably just follow where tutuu goes. I still have Ash as the most likely hit, but if we’re afraid Chomps is a wolf here then we’ll prob need to get rid of him today.

[tutuu]

Let’s kill Ash :-)

[tutuu]

And I think spooky just gave up from exhaustion. They had more posts during New Years than they have this day phase

[tutuu]

Ash → Spooky regardless of Ash’s flip is my legacy

good luck best of luck happy wishes

[Zugzwang]

@Creature

I’ll probably just follow where tutuu goes. I still have Ash as the most likely hit, but if we’re afraid Chomps is a wolf here then we’ll prob need to get rid of him today.

I don’t think it’s likely Chomps is a real arsonist, or has any KP, regardless of alignment
feels too swingy, and Chomps is also the kind of player to make this kind of bluff thtbhtbhtbthbtb

[Leafia]

i wouldn’t call you towncore Creature. Derps maybe though. He seems villagery enough for now.

@SirDerpsAlot

you get dead which makes me happy

I’d rather kill a wolf over a villager myself.

@tutuu

i dont think its impossible for wolf leafia to have forgotten or lied in that post. i dont really know

Knowing me and my memory, I probably would’ve forgotten even if I was a wolf.

@Zugzwang

(I’m aware there’s a world where Leafia purposely posted less to fool this tell, but she has previously ignored it repeatedly in games with people who knew about it (see: FAM4 and Singers FM) so I don’t think it’s super likely)

I’ll have to remember to do this someday in a game where I’m a wolf.

@Creature

I’ll probably just follow where tutuu goes. I still have Ash as the most likely hit, but if we’re afraid Chomps is a wolf here then we’ll prob need to get rid of him today.

Chomps is very unlikely to be a wolf here. Not impossible but very unlikely.

[Creature]

@tutuu

And I think spooky just gave up from exhaustion.

I am also exhausted. I posted a lot more D1 when I was in self-pres mode and stopped posting as much when I got locktownread and got a read on almost everyone.

[Leafia]

Next up: Teach you the meaning of locktownread.