Wrogn 2 - MAFIA VICTORY

[Chomps]

:)

[SirDerpsAlot]

angy is too harsh of a word

[SirDerpsAlot]

in the case youre town then disappointed is a better descriptor

[Chomps]

“I’m so disappointed i want you dead”

[spookycat27]

not specifically, though it would not surprise me if it was someone deep

(fancy way of saying “no, and I’m not sure the PoE is that correct, but I also wouldn’t put much stock into my own thoughts”)

[SirDerpsAlot]

yeah

[Zugzwang]

NYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA thbthbthtbthbthbt

[Zugzwang]

overall I’m around where tutuu is (though if I voted now, it’d be on Spooky)
I want to look at Leafia again tho to see if I can ~fully clear them because it feels like solving poe is easier here

---

@Ash

Assuming you’re talking about the Chomps scumread, kinda confident?

My writing process can basically be split into four phases:

1. Reading and analyzing each of the posts on their own.
2. Finding and tracing common threads between said analysis. This kinda happened on its own during Phase 1, especially once I started comparing her interaction with you and Tutuu.
3. Reanalyzing posts under the aforementioned common threads (this is basically how I processed the Marluna analysis).
4. Rearranging for readability. Some rewording is done here to highlight the thesis.

Phase 1, I’d noted that Soweli had vanishingly few mentions/interactions with Chomps, and the most they implied was some level of friendliness with them. At the time, I just accepted that I was probably going to be filing it as a null real. However, by Phase 3, it became apparent that while everyone else had an interaction with Soweli that unpaired them, Chomps just didn’t.

It’s hard to have enormous confidence in the read, especially compared to the much more explicitly paired interactions between Soweli and Spooky. However, I think I have been thorough and careful with all of my reads, and I do not feel that her Chomps interactions do anything, let alone anything to dispute that. As such, it is a read that I’m only somewhat confident on, but relative to all other possible reads, it is by far my most confident.

Does that make sense?

initially this looked fairly towny to me, but the numbered list is mostly a general writing process, as opposed to a specific one
which is what a wolf can describe, since they do know their general process of writing posts as town

There are some details provided in the list and the following paragraph, but it’s not anything like a story of “I looked at A, had the thought of B, wrote C, pondered D”, etc, which is what’s difficult to fake

I could also argue that finding the interactions with Chomps so different than those with Spooky is a self-indictment, but that might be a stretch (should be >rand w to some degree at least though, and also specifically pairing with Spooky)

[Zugzwang]

@Leafia

This is a thought I just had too. Ishmael talked like they’d be killing someone since they were exed. What if Ishmael killed May and the wolf’s nightkill was stopped somehow?

@Zugzwang

…

@Aleph

nah im shooting one of soweli/leaf/22

@Aleph

anyways general legacy

Look at Soweli/Leafia/22, wouldnt be shocked if theres a wolf in those 3

Jury is out on Creature and Brad

Safeish to trust May and Zug

…were you unaware of their claim of who they were shooting?

@Leafia

@Zugzwang

…were you unaware of their claim of who they were shooting?

No. Just forgot who they claimed they were shooting.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmm
considering Leafia/Soweli/tutuu would be 2/3 wolves with w!Leafia, it would be unlikely for w!Leafia to forget who Ishmael had claimed to shoot
I coooooooould see it as an overconfident w!Leafia going “oh but I’m extremely villagery, so I will never be shot” but even so, the potential shot would still factor into other decisions that night

so I don’t think w!Leafia forgets (or pretends to forget) about Ishmael’s choice

[Zugzwang]

admittedly I want to find Leafia town, and I’m also already thinking it’s just Ash/Spooky
so I might be a bit biased here
@tutuu what do you think about this thbthtbhtbhtbthbthb

[tutuu]

sure!

[tutuu]

yesss im a ladies man

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

sure!

NYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I don’t mean in a “I’m right. please accept this” way I mean a “ponder my argument and tell me what you think”

[tutuu]

i dont think its impossible for wolf leafia to have forgotten or lied in that post. i dont really know

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

i dont think its impossible for wolf leafia to have forgotten or lied in that post. i dont really know

nyaaaaaaaa I mean I don’t think a lot of things are impossible
but it’s not about that

relevant Mayposts thtbthbthbthbthtbhtbhtbhtbthb

@May

Balancing possibilities vs probabilities dot txt

@May

(This is both literally true and a joke about how my flexibility is a downside because I get too caught in possibilities. There’s a Mafiascum wiki article about how possibilities are antitown and probabilities are protown that is my shining beacon in the dark in times like this. I go back to it every time I get caught in this hell, except it’s not helping right now, because I think the probabilities are fairly balanced between my choices.)

it’s about what’s more likely

[Zugzwang]

oh wait the exact post I was thinking of was probably on Olivest
which is why I couldn’t find it

[Zugzwang]

ok nyaaaaaaaaa I can’t find it anyway
so sad no cure

[Zugzwang]

nyaaaaaaaaaa ok after going over Leafia in Percy Jackson FM I think the postcount tell isn’t just about arguing more as wolf

she didn’t get in drawn-out arguments in that game, and yet still had 74 posts D1
while there are towngames in the chart that have significantly less posts:

@May

Also great evidence for the “w!Leafia posts more because she gets into arguments” theory: the low red dot at D1 is this game. This is the only wolfgame she’s had where she didn’t post more than any equivalent towngame

In this game, Leafia has only 73 posts over 3 days, despite getting into an argument with Creature
so that’s pretty strong evidence she’s just town IMO

(I’m aware there’s a world where Leafia purposely posted less to fool this tell, but she has previously ignored it repeatedly in games with people who knew about it (see: FAM4 and Singers FM) so I don’t think it’s super likely)

[Zugzwang]

I should probably look over May’s posts (Mayposts ) to see if there’s anything else about it but nya

[Ash]

@Zugzwang

There are some details provided in the list and the following paragraph, but it’s not anything like a story of “I looked at A, had the thought of B, wrote C, pondered D”, etc, which is what’s difficult to fake

Is that not exactly what the following paragraph is describing?
Like, almost down to the beat: I looked at Soweli’s interactions with Chomps, had the thought that I would have to eventually file this as a null read, wrote the rest of my reads, realized that everyone else was spewed (is this how you use the word?) town from their interactions with Soweli, and reevaluated my read on Chomps accordingly.