Bland & Flavorless Mountainous 15er - Mafia Winnered

Forum Games Completed
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#3401

And I deducted you had to be a wolf and Molly spewed you wolf

#3402

I feel like I usually make up better falsely-justified vibereads, but I didn’t really play D1 as well as I could’ve. So it’s all good.

1 Like
#3403

I feel like I always get pocketed by @Phraze

#3404

overall i think the game was relatively error free minus me dropping the ball a few times and forgetting something but i fumbled through a lot of things and was pretty slow for a lot of things

tldr i am a relic of a bygone era and cannot live without my fancy manual votecounts

#3405

reject modernity return to

Voted Voting Votes
4 Likes
#3406

Oh hey, I was hosting when I last used these

#3407

Note to self.
Listen to the fucking town that call someone town when 3 dead players call someone town it’s for reason.

2 Likes
#3408

Then MAYBE I could have not been biased and considered Marluxion.

#3409

Yo zoro, how many times this happened.

2 Likes
#3410

anyways I said I was going to calculate my and Zorvo’s Brier scores in postgame so I guess I’m doing that now

important note: a Brier score ranges from 0 to 1. Lower is better – a hypothetical perfect score is zero.

I used this mean square error calculator to calculate, feel free to double check my work

an 80% Oracle on day 1 (literally just guesses that everyone is 80% town) has a Brier score of 0.16

a .7857 Oracle who knows their own alignment on day 1 (guesses they are 100% town, guesses everyone else at 78.57% Mafia) has a Brier score of 0.15714

usually those (or the second one minus the self guess) are what people mean by reads ‘at rand,’ – like, that’s the score to beat

(I’m not going to go into calculating a Brier skill score right now but that’s a thing one can do)

so how’d Zorvo and I do?

plugging this into my calculator, I get that Seth has a Brier score of 0.22017, somewhat worse than rand

same formula applied to mine gives a Brier score of 0.19725 – also worse than rand!

receipts

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Screenshot_20221123-075102-212720×1059 18.4 KB

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Screenshot_20221123-074544-552720×1066 15.1 KB

2 Likes
#3411

Man it’s like I was kinda stuck in Jarek’s spot.
I didn’t know who the last one would be it not Prisma.

#3412

How much did this skew the results?

1 Like
#3413

Oh it’s true.
I townread Phraze and Molly day 1.

1 Like
#3414

Wait, I misread. Nvm.

#3415

reading this makes me happy
ggs lemon, sorry about the push

1 Like
#3416

Lemon you did nothing wrong.

After the Arctic flip I would have hard defended you.

1 Like
#3417

no worries, it was part of the game

1 Like
#3418

Zoro I can’t tell if you as town making people to be town for the simple reason that they townread you and say people are wolf because they wolfread you.

I saw you do this twice as mafia during Valo and my “birthday” game.

#3419

I’m going back to sleep

I’m only here in the first place because I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn’t fall back asleep because I didn’t know if we’d lost

#3420

Thing is I am good at finding Obvious Town.

Molly wasn’t obvious Town, was just lean Town and I found some stuff Townie.
Arctic had some genuine moments too.
I thought Marluxion and Phraze were both Townie and enough to have not found them for the solve.
It was more of a bias read then an “this is obvious town” read.

Note to self: If I can’t call someone obvious town from reading them I probably shouldn’t keep them out of the solve.