BOTF XXVI: LIZARDS - EVIL WINS

No one can really put any team together right now without conflicting into some sort of way. For Derp and Amelia to be together you would have to assume that they threw suspicion onto each other for questionable reasons, which doesn’t make sense if either of them were a minion and the other was a demon. It would make sense if both of them were minons, but not a demon. For me to be demon, or for Derp to be demon, you would have to assume we would kill into an artist ping. Otter being the demon would make sense for the Magnus Kill, but their abilities have been extremely helpful and their noble information makes sense, along with the other abilities given which makes me think that they aren’t the demon.

Which is sort of problematic, if you think about it. Really the only world presented so far that doesn’t have too much trouble is the Magnus/Brakuren/Amelia/Bionic or Someone. And I have already stated I hate co-signing to one single world. And so I’ve been thinking about this game as a whole, what exactly our assumptions have been this game. Currently we have assumed the following

  1. The dead are generally trustworthy, there is nothing suspicious about them, besides magnus.
  2. Bionic/Someone isn’t w/w
  3. Marluna must be good if the Shab is good, considering the condition of the Shab Marluna mentioned in the public thread.
  4. Kiiruma is good.
  5. Magnus and Brak are the same alignment
  6. Private condition, I am good.
    These have been my main assumptions. I assume they are also other people’s assumptions. I could be wrong, dunno what may is thinking, and may can do whatever the fuck they want with the code or “information” they been hiding, but even talking to Magnus, it seems their world view is completely the same as mine with the same borderline assumptions, so anything May has talked about has evidently not been with magnus, but I digress, anyway.

And those are the main assumptions I’ve made this game. I can’t tell you how many “small” assumptions I don’t put full weight behind but have considered them, which makes me hesitant to build world views that I haven’t already stated, such as:
Someone/Derp not being “w/w”
Otter is probably not evil off their noble information + their ability being general pro-town
Silviu being town off Atlas’s god read and them not wanting me to push them.
Derp not being the demon based off the fact that would require them to kill in their Artist information, making them inherently more suspicious
Derp not being the demon because the story tellers prevented Derp from easily accusing Amelia today through Kiiruma, which would basically be griefing them.
Amelia not paying much attention is indicative of them not being the demon, though it would explain the magnus kill, they don’t seem at all invested in the game, which seems weird.
Amelia and Derp aren’t w/w unless they are both exactly minions

So these small assumptions that I have, along with other people, are the main reason people are confused about the game. Or at least, their small assumptions, I presume.

So, it got me thinking. I really do enjoy these small assumptions, they make my life a lot easier to just trust and believe, but man, believing in them is hard, because they conflict with my main assumptions and it makes it so I only have like on world view. Which makes me think one of my main assumption is actually wrong.

2/4/5 are the main assumptions I have that I do not think can be changed at the this point. 1/3 are the main assumptions that, I think, messing with, may lead to the game actually making far more sense.

I think it’s possible Marluna registered as a townsfolk. I also think it’s possible that there is actually an evil dead from dying at night. I don’t think it’s very likely that May/Atlas are evil, nor do I think it’s likely that Leafia was evil. I think there’s a chance that Tutuu might be evil, and it would explain why our worlds are not currently working. Don’t ask me why, or how that happened, why the demon would attack them, but I personally think that, my small assumptions may be showing that one of my big assumptions are wrong.

The demon clearly only has 1KPN, but the hosts decided to give someone both the monk ability and the artist ability, how well was the evil team doing to deserve both of those?

I guess it could be 2kpn n2 but still

Anyway, let’s make one main assumption. Bionic is always a wolf here. People have been debating this and they have been stating that it’s important to figure this out, word of god is that outsiders must be actively harmful to the town, they cannot sit by and pretend they are a vt as it’s not actively harmful, bionic is clearly lying, and Amelia seems pretty confident that bionic would not lie for this long, so it’s likely they are just evil.

Which does likely mean that someone was originally town, and the hosts were just having…a lot of fun with someone’s role, I think.

That’s neat, I think anyway. It helped solve the major issue of the debacle with bionic sticking by the claim.

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Now that we established that

Summary

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #784 by SirDerpsAlot

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #779 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3532 by SirDerpsAlot

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3626 by Amelia

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3629 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3674 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3675 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3684 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #3696 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #5311 by Bionic

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #5726 by SirDerpsAlot

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #5727 by Someone

BotF Lizards - Thread 1 Archive - #5793 by Magnus

Here’s my homework @magnus

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Most notably, Bionic wanted me atlas or Marluna hammered d1, and derp mentioned their name in a possible ro3 along with Amelia being a bystander the entire game

Anyway, what I’ve established here is that if we assume bionic is mafia for lying about their claim, based off word of god information, then we can assume that neither of the three people are listed are the demon, since bionic would be throwing if that’s the case and bionic, according to anelia, doesn’t throw.

Personally I think Bionic was just lashing out at anyone in order to save themselves and that makes sense if they were evil, and I think it further confirms that I’m at least not the demon, considering the implications if someone listens to bionic and I die.

ima mute this thread forcibly now I thought too much of the game

im the mayor. is anyone around

Somewhat

I am around but I don’t really know what’s going on I’m going in circles
The good news is I’m monologuing and making myself obvuous town since I only do this as town
The bad news is I’m monologuing and no one is going to read them cuz it’s a lot of words

why don’t we just kill brak derp and Amelia and then see where that leaves us

deep can you even make a full team

I haven’t really tried

I don’t really focus on team building as I tend to end up just using it more often as a tool in conf biasing individual wolf reads I already had

It’s a fairly important tool in botc to do it

I’m not capable of keeping track of everything going on at once socially and mechanically to do that with any use

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@Litten you have my interest. Condition 3 hasn’t been immutable in my own mind, although I haven’t heard “the condition”, just the mention of them concealing their claim. I’ll go over it for the sake of theorycrafting.

A team minimally consisting of Bionic / Marluna / Tutuu / +1 could see an evil Shabaloth of any type needing to kill one Minion in order to resurrect another, as an idea to justify the proposed nightkill you’re suggesting. I don’t really know what Tutuu’s claim is, although if they’re claiming Townsfolk!Shabaloth who resurrected Marluna then I should thunderdome them 9/10 times here. Regarding issues.

My whisperlogs don’t show any common denominators between any of the three on the first day, and Marluna’s ability would have to be at least half real to keep Someone initially good. Except they were willing to execute to save themselves on D2, openwolfing in the process which wouldn’t be indicative of an attempt to wolfside in this scenario from the onset. We just had an extra unexplained nightkill for reasons, because it’s not an Arsonist or any other predictable pattern.

Then we’d still have another evil between SDA / Litten / Amelia as the fourth due to the Artist pings and Harpy claim. As the Demon no less. Demon!SDA likely isn’t given Amelia’s name on D1…

Kiiruma’s call for protection on Amelia is an evidently strong argument against Demon!SDA, unless SDA wanted to maintain the livelihood of their pings for longer, or if Kiiruma’s bluffing about it to pressure SDA (plausible). I concede to that point, sure.

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Huh, I just realized the context is actually way worse:

Someone was saying they wanted to hammer me and bionic was pressuring them into doing that