I HAVE BEEN THE GUY PUSHING FOR WORTOX/WOODIE BEING POSSIBLY PARTNERED. I HAVE NOT ANSWERED THIS POST BECAUSE I ASSUME IT WILL BE ANSWERED AS YOU FINISH YOUR CATCHUP.
Yes, well… I figured I might as well try to breath some life into the thread. For some reason it has been eerily quiet for the majority of the day so far.
IT IS INEVITABLE WHEN THE HIGHPOSTERS ARE EFFECTIVELY HIGHPOSTING THEIR WAY INTO BEING CLEARED. IF YOU DON’T HAVE A HIGHPOSTER IN THEIR RANKS, YOU SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD TO LET SUCH A HIGH PROPORTION OF THE GAME CONTENT COME FROM TOWN LONG-TERM. EVENTUALLY THEY’LL START BEING CORRECT, WHETHER BY VIRTUE OF ACTUALLY FINDING SCUM OR BY JUST AGREEING TO SHRUG LYNCH THE LOWPOSTERS, AND YOU’RE KINDA JUST COOKED.
I am currently around the 610th post, and so far these are my reads:
Wolfgang took a jump from my top suspect to “somewhere nulltown” primarily because their explanation of why my reasoning was insane is very much valid.
Additionally, Wolfgang was actually the first player to point out that Woodie’s posts were suspicious. (The second and third one being Wendy and Wurt, whom both had instead townread Woodie for Woodie’s reads.)
I have found Wes’ post on how Wortox’s progression is extremely odd, and I agree with it. I don’t know what to make of it, but for now my stance on Wortox being town based on Woodie’s vote remain unchanged.
I have only caught up with a third of the entire story and half of D1. I will read further to learn why WX-78 believes Wortox/Woodie are W/W.
SO LET’S TALK ABOUT WHY I THINK WILLOW IS SO TOWNY.
FIRST OFF, WE HAVE TO START BY ACKNOWLEDGING THAT HER MEANINGFUL-CONTENT-TO-POST-COUNT-RATIO IS FAR AND AWAY THE HIGHEST IN THE GAME. SHE HAS ALMOST NO FLUFF, AND DESPITE BASICALLY BARELY MAKING POSTMIN EACH PHASE (I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF SHE TECHNICALLY MISSED IT ONCE) HER CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN LARGER THAN PEOPLE WITH TWO OR THREE TIMES HER POSTCOUNT.
WHILE HARDLY INFALIBLE, PEOPLE IN THIS POSITION TEND TO HAVE A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF BEING TOWN THAN SCUM. THEY ARE NOT FLYING UNDER THE RADAR, NOR ARE THEY ATTEMPTING TO USE INTERACTIONS WITH OTHERS TO DRUM UP FREE CONTENT. IT’S VERY DIFFICULT FOR MOST SCUM PLAYERS TO CRAFT GENUINELY MEANINGFUL POSTS WITH SUCH CONSISTENCY WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO RELY ON LESS MEANINGFUL POSTS TO BRIDGE THE GAPS.
NOW, OF COURSE, THIS ALL ONLY HOLDS IF YOU AGREE WITH MY ASSESSMENT THAT HER POSTS ARE, IN FACT, MEANINGFUL. SINCE YOU SAY YOU DO NOT REMEMBER THEM, I ASSUME THIS IS NOT IMMEDIATELY TRUE FOR YOU. LET’S REVIEW HER ISO TOGETHER - THIS IS A GOOD WAY FOR ME TO RENEW MY READ AS WELL.
WILLOW’S FIRST TWO POSTS CAME BEFORE MOST PLAYERS HAD GIVEN MORE THAN A HANDFUL OF ACTUAL, ALIGNMENT-RELEVANT THOUGHTS, YET SHE IMMEDIATELY LAUNCHES INTO A FLURRY OF HER OWN. THIS LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH HER EXPRESSED DISTASTE FOR THE “SLOW” START TO THE GAME, WHICH IS REPEATED IN THE ENDING OF HER FOURTH POST:
ON THE WHOLE, I THINK THESE TWO POSTS SHOW WHAT TO ME APPEARS TO BE A GENUINE ATTEMPT TO TAKE STOCK OF THE GAME. HER TAKE ON WES IS ANTI-CONCENSUS IN A VERY BOLD WAY IF SHE’S A WOLF, AND IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY SHE RETAINS HER NULLWOLF READ ON WES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY, SO IT IS NEITHER THE CASE THAT SHE IS ATTEMPTING TO APPEASE HIM NOR GENUINELY ATTACK HIS CREDIBILITY. THE REST OF HER READS ALL SEEM SENSIBLE AS WELL, WITH THE FACT THAT SHE MIXED UP WORTOX AND WILSON BEING SOMETHING THAT I THINK IS NULL AT BEST AND MAYBE EVEN PLUS TOWNPOINTS:
CONSIDER - REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT WILLOW IS TOWN OR MAFIA, IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT SHE DID, IN FACT, MIX THE ORIGIN OF THESE POSTS UP IN HER CATCHUP. HER RESPONSE MAKES NO SENSE READ ANY OTHER WAY. WHAT IS TELLING, TO ME, THEN, IS THE FACT THAT HER READSLIST STILL MAKES COMPLETE AND TOTAL SENSE WITH THIS MIXUP IN MIND. HER WOLFLEAN ON WILSON REMAINS INFORMED BY THIS VIEW WHEN SHE HAS ISO’D EVERYONE AND MADE A READSLIST, WHILE HER READ ON WORTOX IS NULLTOWN, WHICH TO ME LOOKS AN AWFUL LOT LIKE HER READS ARE, IN FACT, BEING GENERATED BY SYNTHESIZING THE THREAD, RATHER THAN FALSIFYING JUSTIFICATIONS FOR CONVENIENT CONCLUSIONS. IN SHORT, HER READS LINE UP EXACTLY WITH HER STATED PROCESS FOR GENERATING THEM.
THIS MIXUP ASIDE, I THINK HER TREATMENT OF WOODIE LOOKS MAJORLY UNPARTNERED, TO BE QUITE HONEST.
I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE A WOLF ENTERED CALLING ONE OF THEIR TEAMMATES’ POSTS WOLFY, SAID THEY DON’T BELIEVE THEM TO BE NEW (CLEARLY, THEY ACTUALLY WERE - SCUM WOULD KNOW THIS), AND THEN 180’D THE READ INTO A NULLTOWN WITH ZERO PROGRESSION. WHEN CALLED OUT ON THIS LACK OF PROGRESSION, I FIND IT EVEN HARDER TO BELIEVE THAT THEY WOULD JUSTIFY IT BY SAYING THAT THEY THOUGHT THEIR TEAMMATE WAS LYING AND JUST DECIDED THAT THEM LYING WAS NO LONGER WOLFY. AGAIN, CONSIDER THAT WOODIE’S TEAMMATES HERE KNOW HE WAS, IN FACT, NOT LYING. SURELY YOU COME UP WITH SOME OTHER REASON?
I ALSO THINK THIS APPROACH TO THE CHAT GPT TALK IS SUPER PURE. WHILE PLAYERS LIKE WORMWOOD MAY HAVE PUNCHED IT INTO AN AI DETECTOR TO USE IT TO DISCUSS WOODIE’S ALIGNMENT, WILLOW IMMEDIATELY JUMPS INTO ATTACK MODE, CALLING PEOPLE USING THIS LINE OF REASONING LIKELY WOLVES. THIS IS TRULY HARD TO SEE COMING FROM A TEAMMATE WHO, BY THIS POINT, KNOWS THAT WOODIE IS GOING TO BE DEADWEIGHT, EVEN IF THEY MAY NOT HAVE REALIZED THAT WOODIE HAD LIKELY USED A BOT TO HELP WRITE UP HIS POSTS AND HAD BASICALLY ADMITTED TO SUCH BY THIS POINT. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE SHE ALSO DOESN’T REALLY COMMENT ON WOODIE’S ALIGNMENT HERE AT ALL, AND WHEN SHE FINALLY DOES IT’S TO AGREE THAT HE COULD BE COACHED.
LASTLY FOR DAY 1, SHE POPPED IN ONE MINUTE BEFORE EOD TO DISPARAGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT WILSON WOULD FLIP WOLF:
ACTUALLY WHAT WOLF DOES THIS LOL
LET ME REMIND YOU OF THE VOTECOUNT AT THE TIME SHE POPPED IN AND SAID WILSON SEEMS LIKE HE WON’T FLIP WOLF:
Votecount as of post #1121
Wilson (5): Willow, Webber, Warly, Wormwood, Wes Woodie (4): Wurt, Wortox, Wilson, WX-78 Wortox (3): Wanda, Woodie, Wolfgang Wolfgang (1): Wigfrid Wurt (1): Wendy
Not Voting (1): Wickerbottom
IN ZERO WORLDS EVER DOES A LOWPOSTING SCUM POP IN ONE MINUTE OUT FROM EOD TO TRY AND SINK THEIR OWN BUDDY WHEN THEY THEMSELVES ARE ON THE MAIN TOWN COUNTERWAGON AND DO NOT INTEND TO SWAP. IT JUST DOES NOT HAPPEN. THIS THOUGHT NEVER CROSSES A WOLF’S MIND BECAUSE IT IS UTTERLY INSANE AND DERANGED BEHAVIOR. WOLVES IN THIS POSITION HAVE A MILLION THINGS ON THEIR MIND, BUT TRYING TO VERBALLY SINK THEIR TEAMMATE LAST SECOND WHILE NOT EVEN GETTING CRED FOR SWAPPING VOTES IS NOT ONE OF THEM.
FRANKLY I WOULD BE SHOCKED TO MY PROCESSING CORE IF WILLOW FLIPPED RED AFTER PULLING THIS MOVE FOR BASICALLY NO REASON, ESPECIALLY SINCE THEIR REASONING FOR HOLDING FIRM ON THE WILSON VOTE LINES UP SO WELL WITH MY OWN EXPERIENCE IN THIS GAME AND AS TOWN IN PAST GAMES.
I ALMOST DON’T EVEN WANT TO GO INTO DAY 2 AFTER THAT, BUT I’LL SEE IF ANYTHING ELSE JUMPS OUT AT ME I GUESS.
Not Voting (6): Wilson, Wigfrid, WX-78, Wickerbottom, Woodie, Wanda
WARLY HAS NOT FLIPPED YET BUT I BELIEVE HIM TO BE TOWN. IF HE IS, THERE IS ONCE AGAIN NO SHOT THAT WILLOW COMES IN, SHIT-TALKS HER OWN VOTE ON A LEADING TOWN WAGON AND INCREASES THE ODDS OF THE WOLF COUNTERWAGON DYING, AND THEN DOESN’T ACTUALLY CHANGE HER VOTE TO GET ANY CRED FOR IT, CITING CONCENSUS:
IF WILLOW IS SCUM HERE WITH WOODIE, SHE HAS AN INSANE WISH TO SEE HIM DEAD, YET ZERO DESIRE TO EVER VOTE HIM. SHE PLACES TWO MORE VOTES BEFORE DAY 2 ENDED, NEITHER OF WHICH WAS EVER ON WOODIE.
SHE’S NOT DOING NOTHING ELSE DURING THIS TIME, EITHER - SHE HAS GOOD ANALYSIS OF WIGFRID (WITH A VERY NATURAL PIVOT TO HER READ), A READSLIST WITH WOODIE IN THE BOTTOM TIER (IN MY CURRENT WORLD, WITH WORMWOOD W, THIS LIST IS ACTUALLY INSANELY GOOD), SOME REALLY SOLID BACK AND FORTH DISCUSSION WITH ME, CONTINUED INSISTENCE OF HER EARLYGAME DESIRE TO DRUM UP ACTIVITY (SHOWS A SOLID THROUGHLINE CONENCTING HER APPROACH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GAME), A SOMEWHAT-SELF-DAMNING-IF-SCUM POST CALLING OUT WES’S TOWNREADS AS A POSSIBLE WAY TO FIND WOLVES, DISCUSSING THE HYPOTHETICAL OPTICS OF BUSSING WOODIE (WHICH WOULD BE INSANELY SLICK TO DO WHILE ACTIVELY NOT BUSSING HIM AT ALL COSTS), AND ENDING THE DAY BY COMING AROUND TO A TOWNLEAN ON WARLY.
I DON’T THINK EITHER OF HER ACTUAL VOTES ONTO WORTOX OR WANDA ARE EXPRESSLY GOOD LOOKS, AND I DO THINK IT’S POSSIBLE TO ARGUE SCUM MOTIVE INTO THEM, BUT I THINK IT’S REALLY HARD TO SEE SCUM MOTIVE ACTUALLY EXISTING IN THE CONTEXT OF EVERYTHING ELSE SHE HAS SAID AND DONE.