GOAT^2 - Game Thread (5/15) - Day 6 - Mafia wonnered

well, not just me
I think other towns see it too

so it’s cool

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Think I still SR Lemon but I may as well respond for the benefit of the viewers at home

It is. You are convinced, yes?

I don’t know. This late in the game, it’s not so much about reads as it is solves, and I do have plenty of solves including Magnus, so… like, yes I’m okay with them being executed, but I want to figure out further beyond just Magnus. Also, even if I townread them I’d prefer a Magnus exe over myself because I know I’m town.

The question isn’t rhetorical, if that’s how you’re interpreting it. I’m not using it to argue that Magnus is town. I don’t think it makes Magnus town. I’m literally asking “hey, does this look like partnered behavior to anyone? I can’t tell.” I don’t have the luxury of getting to go “oh Magnus and May are obviously partnered” and leaving it at that. I have to actually spend this day phase trying to figure out who to go after next (and convince you all that it’s not me).

Trying to figure out if you’re partnered with Magnus

This was a joke. The actual reason I repeated it over and over again is because… I was thinking it over and over - each end vote immediately stood out to me as “wolf in Lemon and Brad”, so I kept thinking that phrase, and because it was 2AM I had zero filter between what I was thinking and what I was typing.

Fair enough, I guess? If Magnus is scum, which I very much see as a possibility (if not the only one), I’m stuck in a bit of a corner for sure, but all I can do is work with what I’ve got.

Not ATE. Friendly request. In every single mafia game I’ve played, whether I survive has been exactly one to one with whether I win. I’ve never won dead and I’ve never lost alive. I think it’s quite funny and would hate to have the streak broken. Again, message was not rhetorical it was 100% literal and not intended to be taken as anything beyond its stated message.

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who’s my partner?
what are your reads if I flip town?

scumcase me or die (tomorrow)

Okay I was scumcasing you and such by ISOing and wow this aged poorly anyway I’ll finish up shortly

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what are these “plenty of solves” you speak of?
because I haven’t seen them

this is why I think it can’t be a real thought
I’m literally over here saying everyone should sheep Vulgard with me and exe Magnus today and that I think you and Magnus are the scumteam and you seriously think I could be partnered with Magnus?

did you read the interaction I had with Magnus earlier?
hence, I think your take is fake (and you’re not trying to solve for real)

pls see previous comment

just like how you thought KT was partnered with molly?
do you have any other teams thought out because it looks like you’re just stuck on me/Brad

??
pls give an ordered town-to-scum reads list
thanks

oh ok
we can satisfy your request tomorrow by voting you out after Magnus

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RIP my D1 townread :cry:

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Lemon fairy is popping off lets go queen

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Magnus (2): Vulgard, BradLand
Lemonfairy (2): Magnus, May
May (1): mollylikesorigami

Not Voting (2): YoubutWorse, Lemonfairy

Day ends 2022-10-04T22:00:00Z

So, as established during EoD1, a wolf Lemon would definitely have to be feeling pretty… reckless, is the word, I think? That last-minute Silviu vote would have to be refuge in absurdity, which isn’t something you do when you’re afraid. To spark that confidence, I think the TRs on Lemon would probably have to have come from town, meaning I think Brad and Lemon are probably unpartnered? Meaning yesterday’s May was wrong about the Brad/Lemon connection, but they were staring at colorful wagons until they got cross-eyed, not backreading literally anything ever, so I don’t have much faith in them to be particularly right.

Like, seeing this is the kinda thing that makes you bold enough to place a last-minute vote on the counterwagon to your partner. Given that vote’s existence, I also think Lemon would have trust in her partner - if you think your other partner’s going down soon, you don’t take that kind of risk, because that makes you all fall down like dominoes. That also means Lemon would probably have her partner bring up the vote and question her on it… Probably question her over me, certainly.

Before I get into D2, I’m going to try to figure out mindset throughout the night phase - specifically on picking the Min kill. It felt a bit off to me, and I had initially concluded that the source must have been Min’s trust in King, who I wolfread, but it was obviously wrong.

But this? This is the kind of readlist that I think a scum Lemon would see as killable - it doesn’t lead directly back to her, but it’s also not placing her in a direct townread like a lot of other players were. I’m not… really sure Lemon/Magnus kill this? It’s certainly not impossible, so I don’t think it’s strong evidence one way or another. I doubt Lemon/Brad kill this. Molly’s not scum. I’m not scum. That leaves… Lemon/Vulgard, which is like, not the kind of conclusion I want to be making if I want to survive tomorrow, and I’m sure it’ll get me many a tomato thrown, but I’m starting to see things point in that direction.

Vulgard perfectly follows the direction I think a fellow wolf would take after Lemon’s last-minute O kazo vote - be the first one to bring it up, control the conversation on it, and then drop the suspicion.

Slotting the high townread on a buddy, but alongside two townies…

Self indulgent self reflection begins

Honestly, it’s embarrassing that all of this work that I’ve done to make this conclusion could’ve been done in the first few hours of D2… This was sitting here the entire time, and I just… didn’t pick up on it. Of course, it was largely because my focus was drawn to other players (like Marl), and the narrowing down as kills have happened greatly helps reads, especially with 2 wolves in 13 players, but… that’s still something I should have caught! Which I’m happy to notice, because that provides me a firm area of improvement from this game, meaning I hopefully won’t do an exact repeat of this bad gameplay again. Woo!! Forward moving!!

Self indulgent self reflection ends

I’m also noticing that Vulgard very clearly notices that he isn’t being listened to and then drops four consecutive correct reads (and then one wrong one on Eliza, but one that leads from the conclusion that Marl is town, and at this point Vulgard probably knew that would be the result of the day).

Basically, my conclusions from this game are as follows: if Magnus V, then Lemon/Vulgard scum. I’ll have to do proper reading to build up worlds for if Magnus flips W, but… backreading here, I am running out of potential partners for them. I TR YBW/Molly, I found them unpaired with Lemon, that leaves Brad (who I TR) and Vulgard (who is pushing a vote on them). We’ll see. I have to go now so I’ll do more thinking later

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I was thinking Magnus looked potentially paired with you, Brad, or Vulgard. I no longer think you’re potentially paired with Magnus, so that’s not true. I’ll have to look more closely at Magnus/Brad and Magnus/Vulgard.

Don’t think this anymore!

Not anymore!

Sure. Me > Molly > YBW > Brad > Vulgard > Magnus > You. This isn’t a good or productive way to solve at this stage in the game - you and Magnus aren’t partnered, so I wouldn’t go after you upon a Magnus W flip, but that’s my base reads.

I appreciate it!

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I think one of my favorite things to do in endgame mafia is when (who I’m assuming are) wolves point out the flaws in my arguments because they’re pushing me as a wolf and I go oh yeah you’re right, you’re a wolf anyway, you’d know better than me, here’s a better and more correct read. It’s hilarious every time. It’s even funnier if I’m wrong here and I’m talking nonsense, of course.

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oh
so you’re not making an actual case on me with reasons but you’re going into this assuming I’m scum and then making stuff up to fit your narrative
good to know

so Brad and I are unpartnered
then who’s my partner?
fyi the only townreads I got D1 I think were from Brad and Magnus, both of whom were not widely townread for the rest of the thread to listen to

you don’t know me
you’ve only played 1 game with me and it was a towngame for me

if I were scum and in the same situation, I would’ve definitely bussed

again, this is complete speculation and not based in reality (i.e., nothing in posts to prove/disprove it)

is that why you killed min?

um what

I literally had like only 2 people townread me

I’m sorry, what?
this is your conclusion?! it makes no sense?

also, good to know you care more about surviving than solving

I can’t
this is :joy_cat:

or, you know
maybe I just have good townreads

what’s embarrassing is your conclusion that the scumteam is me/Vulgard :wowee:

this is fair ig

:thinking: ok

so you think me/Vul are a scumteam but you put Magnus below Vul?

I think it’s productive
why am I individually more scummy than Magnus?

what flipped your read on molly?

On him already. :+1:

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fixed that for you ;)

well, actually idk how productive it is for me to be asking a wolf to give reads

You said to make a case on you. “Make a case” doesn’t mean “talk myself out of the read”, it means going “okay, if Lemon were scum, what would it look like, what evidence of that would I see, and do I see it”. Any wolf making a last-minute vote on the counterwagon would need to be confident and have faith in their partner, because making a blatant and risky move like that isn’t something scared wolves do. Scared wolves bus. “Lemon is a confident wolf” is a natural conclusion from seeing your behavior this game, not an analysis of your pre-existing personality or whatever.

My style of figuring out mafia games is to presume someone’s a wolf and see how many caveats it takes to justify that conclusion. If there’s a lot of caveats, that’s a townread. If there’s not a lot, that’s a wolfread. I took that conclusion, worked out the logic, and my caveats were “Lemon is only a wolf if Magnus is town and Vulgard is her partner”, which are really helpful for solving! It Just Works :tm:

Exactly. That’s why I said putting everyone in a big list isn’t a good or productive way to solve at this stage in the game - it’s too conditional. The sum of all Magnus wolf worlds is more likely than the sum of all Vulgard wolf worlds, but the Lemon/Vulgard world is the most likely individual one.

Skill issue

You’re individually more scummy than Magnus because of your respective attitudes toward the game. It’s not really a solid, strong read I can explain, but you’re just less solvy, I suppose.

I’ve already explained to you what caused my read on Molly to reverse - her potential partners on my chart were Illwei and KingTroll, who are dead and flipped town. Would you like a picture of my actual physical notebook from like D3 where I have this written down as proof? Too bad, I’m fuckin lazy you’re not getting it

This exchange is hilarious no matter your alignment, honestly. I think this should be V/V for the sake of comedy. It’s not, you’re a wolf, but hey. You can’t win 'em all.

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I mean, I didn’t expect you to talk yourself out of the read, but I didn’t expect it to just all be speculative and not based on my posts?
I have totally done or said scummy things this game and idk, I just expected… a better case?

…I can’t help but think you’re talking about yourself :joy_cat:
you were pretty widely townread D1 and I even said you’d be the designated NK because you were so townread so that made you bold enough to switch to Silviu :thinking:

I bus when I’m feeling confident tbh
because that’s when I feel I can make it until the end so I’d care less about losing teammates :wowee:

doubt

no, it isn’t

what attitudes?

you take that back

fair, ig

fixed again
you’re welcome ;)

Anyway Lemon’s a cornered wolf trying to further discredit my arguments now that I’ve hit on the truth and has started reacting noticeably different ever since I started pushing the Vulgard world rather than the Brad one and while you’re going to vote out Magnus today and I have no opposition to that (opinion may change once I properly case them) we should absolutely vote out Lemon or Vulgard tomorrow; Lemon’s only got that one potential partner, and I haven’t cased Vulgard, so the latter might be a safer exe, but again, I haven’t checked and also I love run on sentences forever and ever amen

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now I’m just bickering with May