GOAT^2 - Game Thread (5/15) - Day 6 - Mafia wonnered

[Magnus]

@Lemonfairy

if you flip town, I’ll re-evaluate on May but tbh you and May look really partnered today and you’ve both been hard-pushing the idea that there’s a strong voice that is scum and I think that’s probably the only reason Vulgard has survived this long

@Lemonfairy

@Magnus

And how do you intend to proceed once I flip Town? Are you just going to OMGUS May?

also this

I think I’m fairly comfortable with saying vote Lemon tomorrow no matter what, actually.

[May]

I can’t get any further than D1 in Magnus’s iso before ADHD kicks in and I have to go play 10000 Splatoon, but I think a Magnus who’s partnered with Vulgard would have to be doing some bizarre gameplay to exist - bussing one partner and getting into big fights with another would be… something. It’s not, like, impossible, but it would point to a lack of cohesion from the wolfteam, which should be something I should be able to look for evidence of later in the iso, which will happen after my enrichment Dapples hungry feed them 10000 crab tanks hours

[Magnus]

@Host_Account_1

Living Players

BradLand
Lemonfairy
Magnus
May
mollylikesorigami
Vulgard
YoubutWorse

Magnus executed, flips Town.
YBW killed (?), flips Town.
Execute Lemon, flips Mafia.

At that point, May should be cleared enough to be nightkilled. Flips Town.
…No, it’s better to spare May if you’re evil, as someone reasonably suspect. So Molly would be nightkilled?
Shaping up to be an interesting F3 if so.

[May]

See the way I operate my “reads” are distinctly different from my “solves”. Lemon in isolation isn’t super scummy, but the way she behaves in conjunction with you and the way she reacts to my proposed scumteam feels really really strange, and a Lemon/Vulgard team tracks with the behavior I’ve seen from you two so far. Including these comments! I put a little clarifier there - individually. Autism hungry feed it 10000 usually the literal meaning of my words is the intended reading and the sort of implications people read into them are inaccurate.

[Magnus]

@May

I can’t get any further than D1 in Magnus’s iso before ADHD kicks in and I have to go play 10000 Splatoon, but I think a Magnus who’s partnered with Vulgard would have to be doing some bizarre gameplay to exist - bussing one partner and getting into big fights with another would be… something. It’s not, like, impossible, but it would point to a lack of cohesion from the wolfteam, which should be something I should be able to look for evidence of later in the iso, which will happen after my enrichment Dapples hungry feed them 10000 crab tanks hours

Since you’ve read that far, how would you say w!Vulgard reacts to a sudden terrible wolfcase out of the left field compared to v!Vulgard, at a time when everyone else was townreading him?

[May]

I’m not sure - it’s a subjective situation on D1 that I don’t have a strong feel for, and I’ve never played a game with Vulgard before.

There are a few different ways he could react - I think he’s more confident than to, like, just base-level get more defensive as wolf than town, but I can’t say whether he lands in the “take it into more consideration and get less defensive because he knows there’s something there” camp, the “knowing it’s D1 and the case isn’t very good and everyone else townreads him, not take it seriously and push on the person making the case”, camp, or somewhere in between.

There’s a lot of integer overflow with mafia reads. You go from “confidence = not reacting to a read” to “confidence = being bold enough to react to a read” to “confidence = being bold enough to not react to a read”, etc etc onto infinity. I’m sure you all don’t need me to tell you that, WIFOM is like, a base mafia term, but it drives me insane for sure.

Anyway, it’s a sort of situation that doesn’t have a single distinctive reaction that I think a wolf would have, which is why I didn’t speak on it initially. I think there is a specific kind of reaction that w!Vulgard would have to w!Magnus pushing it (wouldn’t take it lightly as to avoid appearing like distancing, but also wouldn’t hard tunnel Magnus forever about it), but I don’t think that’s like… a super super likely situation? I just know what it would look like if it did happen.

[YoubutWorse]

@Magnus

Magnus executed, flips Town.
YBW killed (?), flips Town.
Execute Lemon, flips Mafia.

At that point, May should be cleared enough to be nightkilled. Flips Town.
…No, it’s better to spare May if you’re evil, as someone reasonably suspect. So Molly would be nightkilled?
Shaping up to be an interesting F3 if so.

Jesse what are you on about

[Magnus]

Counting who I would kill if I were Mafia, and anyone else.
You might be nightkilled, I’m sorry for predicting it. But you’re pretty much towncore by everyone.

[YoubutWorse]

eh I really dont think im dying tongiht lmao

[May]

Magnus, what are your thoughts on Brad in particular? I feel like I have a bit of a blindspot for his slot.

[May]

And anyone else around, of course.

[Magnus]

@May

Magnus, what are your thoughts on Brad in particular? I feel like I have a bit of a blindspot for his slot.

Had an assembly, I’ll take a look and come back when I can.

[Magnus]

Since we:re approaching the pointy end of the game, I’ll just look at interesting posts and draw a conclusion afterward. I was planning to respond to every individual post, but… I’m tired. I’ll just post a couple paragraphs and look like I’m doing the same amount of work.

Brad’s ISO

@BradLand

Town

@Vulgard

I will be inside of BradLand’s walls in 15 minutes

@Vulgard

Okay I gave Brad 15 minutes to tell me why he townread Eliza’s wolfclaiming and since he didn’t do that well

VOTE: BradLand

@BradLand

Oh I thought you replied to something.

It wasn’t a serious read it was a joke.

This interaction makes me think Vulgard and Brad aren’t aligned. The latter makes a joke read, the former presses him for it, the latter clarifies it, and this isn’t brought up again later. An ultimately unnecessary interaction, although Vulgard later claims this means he was solving when nobody else was, Brad was messing around… I’m not reading too much into this.

@BradLand

Okay Seth is town. This is a real read.

@BradLand

If he was a wolf I think he’d end up hard pushing right out the gate and wouldn’t throw townleans like that.

Let’s say it’s hypothetically he’s a wolf, YBW just based on the fact that literally nothing was said about her and he gave a lean.

I don’t exactly know how Brad plays, but given how these posts came separately, one could interpret this as TMI? It would depend on how much stock Brad seems to keep in this read later.

@BradLand

Marl probably town.

Although this makes me think it’s just Brad’s playstyle, so the above point is probably meaningless.

@BradLand

@May

Basically, if Zorvo is wolf, probably a wolf in Brad/Vulgard. If Brad is wolf, probably at maximum one wolf in Zorvo/YBW, but those two easily could be V/V. All very early, subject to change.

Feel like you’re stretching way too hard to try to find preflip connections with this because it’ll cause more mistakes read wise, although it’s probably just a train of thought that you’re continuing which looks fine in a vacuum.

First of all, Brad townread Zorvo at the time of this post.
Secondly, given the first listed interaction between Brad and Vulgard, this post may have betrayed nervousness, although if both were evil, I think Brad would’ve either ignored this post (Zorvo was good, after all), or tried to offset the suspicion, rather than challenging May’s train of thought this way. This doesn’t apply regarding the improbable possibility of Brad/YBW, in which Brad’s response here would make sense, confront this train of thought before it becomes a problem later, heed it off entirely, although it could very easily be V either way. And I think it’s V.

@BradLand

Town:
May
Marl
Zorvo

A weird list for me…something feels off.

Town:
May
Marl
Zorvo
Eliza

That’s better.

@BradLand

May I said before going on a tangent going through possible teammate reads when asked about it feels like a continuation of a train of thought that feels natural thus I think is towny.

Marl when he was posting felt pretty decent in terms of trying to gain some reads, looked like he was posting comfortably and not stiff.

Zorvo I explained but felt like his first few posts if he was mafia he’d at least try to shoe horn a scumread and push in there somewhere.

As said with Lemon explaining the Marl read after the vote, as if rationalising it, and missing Eliza entirely, I would dislike this post at any other time. This came early D1, of course… in any case, it’s important to compare these reads to Brad’s actions later on.

@BradLand

That…defense from Troll might be towny.

Seeing random stuff like explaining the “interesting” post as a self reminder if he searches himself Ew and spots that for future reference sounds like a town mindset, although it’s just a theory post, revealing it is a nice thing to have.
Also the clearing as to why he’s not stating his townreads or why mine was cringe is good as well.

Would like to see what his solving looks like whenever he gets around to it, but for now for his defense I will put a townlean on him.

@BradLand

In my catch up I’d like to call Molly a higher townlean for posts that involve her talking about reading Marl town, and then following it up by talking about how she would vote to save Marl if it was needed.

Min lower townlean, was leaving him alone because of his past games And just in general not instantly hard push him as a courtesy because of past games, granted that not my style anyways. but seem to think his push back on Marl because of him talking about Min being blindingly town and Min hard pushing him for the sentence is probably town indicative for reasons that I can’t explain.

@BradLand

Townread:
Marl
KingTroll
May
Lemonfairy

Townlean:
Molly
Zorvo
Magnus
Min

How I’m looking at the game currently.

@BradLand

Kazo hasn’t done much and has paid attention to either wanting to know why he’s being wagoned, and has had a stagnant scumread on Vulgard majority of the game and not much else in terms of reads that I’m spotting? So just a narrow focus the entire game.

Silviu has been focusing on making “This is what you need to do to be better” posts towards Eliza and Seth, then kept harping on past games or talking about what went wrong in them, he’s been asked questions and hasn’t responded, granted he did talk about being busy at school and on the phone so maybe excusable. However his only townread is Marl, and this is done after having a reads list that felt like he was…I can’t think of the word I would want to use here…but he basically didn’t want to have those townreads.

Like both haven’t given me enough to want to save either of them. Wagons should stay on the both of them.

@BradLand

Hmm…
5 person wagon, and there’s plenty of other wagons to choose from that are in range…
It would have to be one of the stronger players I think, but that would mean Vulgard and Magnus but I don’t really believe in that assessment.

@BradLand

I literally said wagons should be between Silviu and Kazo, I never defended Kazo or anything.

@BradLand

well.

@BradLand

Townread:
Vulgard
KingTroll
Molly
Lemonfairy
Magnus

Townlean:
Lol
May
Zorvo
Eliza

@BradLand

Okay I’m seeing Vulgard and KT’s takes on Lemon, dropping her out of my town list until I see her posting.

Then I’ll force her back onto my town list because I need to slam my head into the wall more and be a detriment to myself and others.

@BradLand

I’m leaning her town, yes.

@BradLand

This is sort of what I have, maybe drop Lemon and Magnus from the list.

@BradLand

Vulgard made a post that Kazo was posting that apparently spews you town.

So I’m choosing to believe it.

@BradLand

If anyone’s questioning it I’m pocketing Illwei.

@BradLand

I went off on YBW at EOD because she was trying to put me in connection with Kazo despite me literally saying I was fine with those 2 being wagons, I said Kazo’s iso was bad and I had my reasons, I had my reasons to scumread Silviu as well, plus I had my scumread and vote on him in the middle of the day and it would’ve been a nice confidence boost if I manage to be right and it went over with my help.

Plus I feel like I’ve been towny as fuck throughout day 1, like I didn’t spend as much time in the game as much as I’d want to, but if you literally look at my iso I’m making my solve attempts.

@BradLand

Alright I did read from #1287 and it’s literally fuck all besides talking about whether or not Vulgard deserves credit for pushing on Kazo.
Pretty sure he pushed on him a good amount during the day so I’m totally fine with giving him a ton of town cred.

I do have lol’s stock going up this game due to the posts made by him so far.

@BradLand

What is the YBW and Molly scumreads based on? I saw you were scumreading them both in your iso, but gave slight mentions to YBW only.

@BradLand

Okay…read through it all…it’s pretty convincing.

I actually noticed you also looked at the “I’m pocketing you” post as well from YBW and I was wondering what difference it made, but you add the context to it and how there’s a few posts really trying to appeal to KingTroll when talking about trying to scumread someone like Vulgard that you brought up and it’s lining up.

She does have her vote on Marl to end the day, and if Marl flips town that’s the first direction I’m looking at.

@BradLand

I feel like you of all people would realize I’m town here.

@BradLand

Cool, in that case if you’re not reading me right, then you are a wolf.

VOTE: Marluxion

@BradLand

VOTE: Unvote

Might’ve overreacted but getting annoyed with not being townread when I deserve it lately.

@BradLand

VOTE: LemonFairy

@BradLand

VOTE: Unvote

I’m so confused right now.

Like she said she read a certain portion and had “new thoughts”, but immediately left and voted on Marl without saying anything else.

Then comes in today and says that she read until she started posting today, and said she’ll never be able to catch up so she’ll skim.

@Lemonfairy

Vulgard/Zorvo/Troll

YBW/May
Eliza/Brad

lol/Ilwei/Magnus

Molly
Marl

Well she does post…a list. It’s something at least.

Like a lot of me is thinking like…would mafia be that blatant talking about not reading the thread?
Can anyone else tell me if this is a dumb read?

@BradLand

Kinda thinking through this though like I could see a theory that Magnus as mafia pushed hard on Vulgard Day 1, hoping to get him voted off, then saw how things panned out and how the thread turned and decided to give up on the Vulgard tunnel and hard tunnel YBW instead on Day 2.

@BradLand

Yeeting potato spot early > Yeeting someone doing things.
Specifically if both of these slots are town.

Is kind of bad because there’s a few spots that have just parked on Marl at the start and that’s it, so if he’s gone we get to see where they go and read them based on that so him dying is probably optimal.

But in terms of my own reads, had Silviu as mafia Day 1, Illwei got into the game and did nothing, so I’m thinking that’s more likely to flip mafia.

This could also be me being a total bitch in terms of making a decision on who to vote because I don’t have any confidence in anyone flipping scum.

@BradLand

@BradLand

Silviu has been focusing on making “This is what you need to do to be better” posts towards Eliza and Seth, then kept harping on past games or talking about what went wrong in them, he’s been asked questions and hasn’t responded, granted he did talk about being busy at school and on the phone so maybe excusable. However his only townread is Marl, and this is done after having a reads list that felt like he was…I can’t think of the word I would want to use here…but he basically didn’t want to have those townreads.

@KingTroll

This was my reasoning for Silviu being maf. Not a full case just point blank what I had.

@BradLand

VOTE: Zorvo

Only joining because it’s funny.

@BradLand

VOTE: Marluxion

Only because you told me to…

@BradLand

VOTE: Marluxion

Last Second hammer!

@BradLand

VOTE: KingTroll

@BradLand

VOTE: Magnus

We can go here for now then.

@BradLand

VOTE: Zorvo

@BradLand

I’LL DO YOU ONE BETTER!

VOTE: Magnus

@BradLand

Illwei would be a lot less into the game if she was a wolf at this point, she’s actually pushing a particular thing she believes in, rather than just floating around during the game or even low posting.

@BradLand

@Illwei

Lemon. May. Brad.

Town or scum?

@BradLand

@Lemonfairy

Illwei/Brad not w/w

We aren’t W/W.

But Illwei IS pocketing me.

@BradLand

@Vulgard

Why do I feel like you’re going after LHF all game?

@BradLand

Okay Lemon thanks for pointing out my townread list has been mostly right and my reasoning for calling Molly town.

@Vulgard @May

Get off Molly.

@BradLand

Okay so it might be Vulgard then.

@BradLand

1 in Vulgard/YBW.

1 in Magnus…was going to say “KinkTool” but I just liked his responses to Magnus probably just mafia…

@BradLand

No wait did Vulgard go after Eliza?

@BradLand

Molly town.

@BradLand

Magnus EOD3 wagon kinda hot tho. Might go back to it.

@BradLand

Maybe he is mafia.

@BradLand

VOTE: Vulgard

@BradLand

I mean it’s T/T initial wagons so at least it’s something?

@BradLand

If Molly is town they probably felt really confident because they can just continue to push LHF and get away with being alive because of PR hunting.

If Molly is also town and we take that away they may start scrambling.

@BradLand

Chance he’s the roleblocker if he’s mafia.

Hard pushed on Kazo and got him yeeted.

Then is still alive despite being a strong player.

Then went after Eliza, Illwei, then Molly now who are LHF slots in this game.

@BradLand

I was once universally townread in a past life…

@BradLand

That doesn’t actually go to the right spot XD

VOTE: KingTroll

@BradLand

I’m fine with either of these if you believe them. I had May town early I just haven’t read her, or much in general really, this game.

I’m not the answer though don’t use your day like this.

@BradLand

And that’s no insult to your wolf game, but fucking hell I know you well enough to know that you wouldn’t put this much effort in subbing into a wolf spot.

@BradLand

I’d actually like to get Magnus here but your call honestly.

@BradLand

VOTE: Magnus

Okay, fine, you failed me. Good job.

After all that work you somehow misread the easiest player to read.

@BradLand

VOTE: kingtroll

@BradLand

Why do you not want Magnus?

@BradLand

No he was town he was mostly widely townread until today.

@BradLand

VOTE: Magnus

@BradLand

Vulgard probably actually town and I’m being foolish tinfoiling him with the NKs not being him.

Magnus I think is mafia.

No idea between Lemon and May. That might be the remaining squad if Magnus is town.

Without tinfoiling, Brad’s shown an inclination to go back and forth on his votes, following the voices of the people he Townreads, which comes across as good-natured to me. An evil player might want to either fly under the radar or remain in control, and Brad falls somewhere in-between, where he’s posting his thoughts but isn’t overtly leading and manipulating everyone. Of course, manipulation isn’t supposed to be visible.

Brad jokes about pocketing Illwei, and doesn’t seem to have a lot of scumreads throughout the game at any given time. Brad didn’t vote O.kazo, Brad hammered Marl (someone he townread), but is preparing for the case I flip Town, which evils would know for sure would happen. However, Brad comes across as the kind of player who would prep for the “worst” anyway, so… I think he’s Town, May. I can’t be certain, but I think he’s Town.

[Magnus]

@Vulgard

i still have brad as a villager. he has definitely dropped off but my read from earlier in the game still stands, i think he went out of his wolfrange early on and him not really playing for the last few phases is unfortunate but within his townrange.

Not taking this into account, because I don’t know whether or not Brad can’t play this way as either alignment, I’m not even the messenger.

[May]

Thank you! Yeah, his progression on you (and in general) looks fairly natural, the Vulgard/Brad thing looks unaligned, etc etc etc. It’s helpful to have a second opinion on these kinds of things, as I tend to just build up blindspots with people where I don’t know how to read them and I just keep ignoring them further into the game because I don’t want to have to start from scratch, and that happened to me with Brad. I had started to get a bad feeling about my insistence that he was town last night, and then I got a bad feeling about that bad feeling, and so on. Having someone else’s perspective helps break me out of the tinfoil.

If you flip wolf, I’ll obviously have to reconsider things, but… I don’t think that’ll happen, and if it does, it’s content from you to analyze anyway.

God, if Brad’s town that does make last night almost a redemption for me but not quite, doesn’t it. Breaking away from the general town consensus “being wrong” to go be wrong about something else. I guess I did that with Eliza anyway. Ah well, killing KT helped narrow down my PoE greatly, cleared Molly, all that stuff… it’s not a complete loss, but I should have seen he was town anyway.

[May]

I hope everyone who thinks it’s me/Magnus gets a kick out of this “openwolfing”. Funny as hell. Yes, it’s sus of me to say this, but I can’t resist pointing out things I think are humorous. I see so many jokes in this world

[Magnus]

The lack of reads from everyone is a general red flag, cluing me in to the likelihood of a Mafia victory.

Everyone except May thinks it’s Magnus/May, everyone else looks good, and it follows that you aren’t Mafia either, unless your partner cared to accuse you right now, leaving you at the bottom of the POE.

We’ll hav to wait and see if you’re misexed two games in a row at a crucial juncture, at least.

My flip will reveal it’s not me.
I don’t think it’s you.
You don’t think it’s Brad.
YBW is consensus Town(?)
Which means it pretty much has to be between Vulgard/Lemon/Molly, and I think Molly’s unlikely to flip wolf.

[Magnus]

In any case, kill Lemon always.

[Magnus]

@YoubutWorse

eh I really dont think im dying tongiht lmao

Strange, but okay. Why not?
…Who would you expect to be nightkilled, if not you? Who’s more townread than you are?

[May]

Yeah, I’m a bit nervous about this execution - it’s not entirely deadly to let you flip, presumably town, though I still have my natural fears, and it would make it a lot easier to get the actual wolves, but it does mean we’re in LyLo for two days straight, so I have to be right about this Lemon/Vulgard world, and I have to convince every townie about it… it’s a lot of pressure. I should check on YBW’s iso, just in case, because I think that’s the one we’re most likely to be wrong on, if anyone.