GOAT^2 - Game Thread (5/15) - Day 6 - Mafia wonnered

[Lemonfairy]

me doing work sort of

Vul/Brad

@Vulgard

Brad why are you townreading the wolfclaim this is FoL we’re playing on

@Vulgard

I will be inside of BradLand’s walls in 15 minutes

@Vulgard

I do actually care about your answer to my earlier question

@Vulgard

Okay I gave Brad 15 minutes to tell me why he townread Eliza’s wolfclaiming and since he didn’t do that well

VOTE: BradLand

@Vulgard

A crucial difference is that there isn’t much I can talk about compared to there. A lot of people are still in RVS and the only read that was given except for mine (Brad’s) turned out to be a meme according to him.

@Vulgard

That’s because Brad said the townread was a meme. There’s not much more to talk about after that.

@Vulgard

Brad giving a meme townread and not much else is iffy but I’m giving him some space.

@Vulgard

Fwiw when I wrote the post about being inside his walls I was waiting for him to respond because I thought he was frozen after I called him out on making a fake read. He later claimed he didn’t realize I was asking him a question, which was weird but I don’t think it’s worth reading into.

@Vulgard

he scumreads me here as well, because I’m allegedly different from my Kaguya game (which I am not) and because I supposedly asked Brad a pointless question in RVS, which is objectively false because I cared about the answer and followed it up while everyone else wasn’t doing much of note

@Vulgard

Last time I accused Brad of being frozen he was town and simply didn’t show up for a while so I’m not going to assume that of him yet.

@Vulgard

Yeah, I think he phoned it in within that post.

@Vulgard

You don’t have a read on me beacuse?

@Vulgard

Had a good response to Marl that I think unaligns them. Hasn’t been very impressive aside from that. Might’ve genuinely frozen when I asked him about his early-game Eliza townread. Don’t really want to push him because if he’s “frozen” town again and I contribute to killing him then but I can’t say I townread him.

@Vulgard

I guess it’s like this.

Marl
min

lol

Silviu
BradLand
Magnus

@Vulgard

Fwiw if Brad is a wolf then his weird townread on her in the early-game is worth noting but idk if it actually means anything.

@Vulgard

I’m ok with either Silviu or O. Kazo dying today. I’d also say I’m okay with Brad dying but I think it’s more of a coin flip because his absence could genuinely be NAI (like it was in HTF).

@Vulgard

If Brad is mafia then lolme I guess but HTF was a thing.

@Vulgard

@ElizaThePsycho @Lemonfairy I’d like to know why the two of you are sitting on Brad.

@Vulgard

your mistake
his read on me still sucks, it’s conclusion before analysis the whole way through
he also didn’t really progress his reads yesterday and i was giving him time specifically so he could do that

@Vulgard

did you take my quotes from o.kazo about silviu into consideration at all
what do you have to say about them

@Vulgard

bruh

@Vulgard

i mostly want to kill magnus, lemon and silviu are also ok options but they’re much cloesr to a shrug for me
idk what to do with lol (there were apparently some arguments for him being spewed town but i don’t think eliza has explained them?)
kt zorvo marl may molly probably all town
ybw i think town

i guess brad also exists
i think he’s ~fine

and idk how to read eliza

Vul/May

@Vulgard

Have you played with them before? I agree on principle

@Vulgard

Okay I don’t just agree on principle anymore I will be very impressed if this content was given by a wolf this early into the game

@Vulgard

Towny again

@Vulgard

In that case I don’t feel like I need to reconsider

@Vulgard

Oh I think a wolf simply wouldn’t bother with the early posting like May’s and it would be hard for a wolf to write all that.

@Vulgard

Is May an excellent wolf or something? I think the clear’s perfectly fine.

@Vulgard

That really doesn’t apply to a lot of players. I know a lot of good villagers who are significantly worse as mafia and simply can’t emulate what they do. I’m not necessarily calling May a bad wolf (I don’t know how good they are, this is why I asked) but their posting by itself is >>rand V IMO.

Fwiw I have another reason to townread May like this but I don’t want to reveal it unless I have to.
[/quote]

@Vulgard

Probably my most confident read right now next to the tr on May.

@Vulgard

Is this what you genuinely believe?

@Vulgard

I got that from lol but not from KT.

@Vulgard

This metaphor reminds me of Litten’s helicopter read in Starship Epiphron, and Litten was a wolf. The entire read feels really forced to me, and the posts afterward strike me as performative. That said, I feel like some of this is intentional baiting so I’m not going to read too much into it.

@Vulgard

I had a townread on both of these slots independently before this whole casing thing happened so I’m honestly not sure what to make of it, especially since now that they’ve both admitted they like lying on day 1 I don’t know how much I should weigh what they said just now vs what I was reading them town for before. Still thinking they’re probably both town?

@Vulgard

It’s kind of funny that he’s saying that because I found the case extremely forced and performative. If it’s not fake then May is trending down for me.

@Vulgard

I kind of think he’s saying it’s not fake but it’s actually fake and was done for reactions. And yes I do realize that me saying that aloud defeats the point but I’ve expressed a similar sentiment already so w/e.

[quote=“Vulgard, post:772, topic:3353”]
Villagers: KT, Zorvo, May, molly, YBW, maaaybe Eliza

@Vulgard

You’re just proving my point. I’ve interacted with a lot of people throughout the game and I gave detailed thoughts about May’s push on you in particular.

@Vulgard

To be honest, even with you saying this, I’m really restraining myself from ramming that wagon into the ground for the sheer fact O.kazo plopped a wolfread and a vote on me for “tone”, refused to elaborate, basically said nothing in their interaction with me, left and never came back. I guess I could see a villager doing that but god .

@Vulgard

That’s actually a good point, I think there’s a decent chance May is threadspewed unless we’re all just being gigantically snowed by someone who randed wolf for the first time (which has happened before but is quite rare).

@Vulgard

i’m curious why you were all doing this

@Vulgard

okay
lemonfairy/may should probably explain themselves too

@Vulgard

i mostly want to kill magnus, lemon and silviu are also ok options but they’re much cloesr to a shrug for me
idk what to do with lol (there were apparently some arguments for him being spewed town but i don’t think eliza has explained them?)
kt zorvo marl may molly probably all town
ybw i think town

i guess brad also exists
i think he’s ~fine

and idk how to read eliza

Vul/molly

@Vulgard

I like molly so far but I need to see more because she had sensible takes as a wolf last game too

@Vulgard

Villagers: KT, Zorvo, May, molly, YBW, maaaybe Eliza

@Vulgard

In regards to people I cleared for kinda weak reasons who could also be wolves for that, there are Eliza and Molly - but one thing worth noting about Molly is that she’s treating me completely differently than she treated me last time (we were V/W), so either she’s going for a completely different approach or she is just of a different alignment in this game.

@Vulgard

I think molly’s posts are better than they were in Kaguya but I could be biased because she defended me.

@Vulgard

Probably this part of that post is the towniest

@Vulgard

As a whole this post looks the best

@Vulgard

@mollylikesorigami Can you elaborate on that thought?

@Vulgard

That’s actually a good point, I think there’s a decent chance May is threadspewed unless we’re all just being gigantically snowed by someone who randed wolf for the first time (which has happened before but is quite rare).

@Vulgard

i more or less maintain my townreads from yesterday actually? bigger townread on molly because she basically ensured that o.kazo would die

@Vulgard

i mostly want to kill magnus, lemon and silviu are also ok options but they’re much cloesr to a shrug for me
idk what to do with lol (there were apparently some arguments for him being spewed town but i don’t think eliza has explained them?)
kt zorvo marl may molly probably all town
ybw i think town

i guess brad also exists
i think he’s ~fine

and idk how to read eliza

Vul/O.kazo

@Vulgard

VOTE: O. Kazo

@Vulgard

Mostly for this post

Piggybacking off another’s opener and then vanishing almost immediately

@Vulgard

Read the thread?

@Vulgard

Like, there are some contexts where I’m okay with people asking for cliffs, but the game has objectively been slow so far.

@Vulgard

Does lol’s misinformation mean anything to you in terms of his alignment?

@Vulgard

Why “obligatory?”

@Vulgard

Point me where you think I did that.

@Vulgard

Do you have an opinion about the read itself?

@Vulgard

As for O. Kazo, I need to metadive them because I know they got MLed in Flicker.

@O.kazo

Sometimes I wonder why I always play games with a bunch of Americans…

@Vulgard

I’m reading that ISO and I see a lot more reads + critical thought about the game than here.

VOTE: O. Kazo

@Vulgard

Fwiw he started off that game with some weird RP thing but then started actually talking about the game and had plenty of content (albeit mostly one-liners and disconnected thoughts).

I’m waiting for that to happen here if he’s town.

@Vulgard

You’re misreading.
I don’t know why everybody always misreads my posts, but it’s been a consistent trend and it annoys me.

@Vulgard

…No… the other part that I wrote about is my ‘problem…’
You just don’t have any game-relevant content outside of a tone-related wolfread on me which you didn’t even explain. I opened your ISO in Flicker and you have plenty of reads there, although they are all underexplained. Still, at least they exist.

@Vulgard

Forgot about O. Kazo, complete shrug.

I feel surprisingly okay with sheeping Marl on Silviu and telling him to sheep me tomorrow instead if he’s wrong.

@Vulgard

Wait, I forgot about O. Kazo again .

Put them underneath Silviu.

@Vulgard

Magnus but you think I’m joycatting so I’ll settle for O. Kazo I guess.

@Vulgard

There’s not really a case that I have on O. Kazo, I just think their posting is incredibly lame and I keep forgetting they exist which usually happens with wolves.

@Vulgard

Okay, look.

I try to push on Magnus: “Vulgard is , tunneling, bad.”
I try to push on Marl: instant omgus, “Vulgard should be townreading me.”
I try to push on O.Kazo:

@Vulgard

Regardless. I think O. Kazo is the most likely player to flip wolf. I’m temporarily letting Marl push on Silviu because I don’t actually have a read on Silviu and he might be right, so I’m ok with following that push today. If he’s wrong, and/or if I die, then he and everyone else will hopefully listen to me and vote out O. Kazo tomorrow. I think the way Marl reacted to my push on him is unfortunately town indicative for him.

@Vulgard

I had a push on O. Kazo later but it wasn’t really talked about.

@Vulgard

In regards to Silviu I simply don’t have a read there and while I prefer O. Kazo I don’t actually mind the Silviu push that much at the moment so I’m ~okay with Marl having his way, if he flips a town I get my wolfread tomorrow and if he flips a wolf then great. If he’s a wolf then obviously I’m making a huge mistake here but like I said I think his reaction to me was unfortunately town AI.

@Vulgard

I could be wrong on Magnus, and I could be right on O. Kazo but since Silviu exists in a similar spot I am okay with him going as well.

@Vulgard

I’m ok with either Silviu or O. Kazo dying today. I’d also say I’m okay with Brad dying but I think it’s more of a coin flip because his absence could genuinely be NAI (like it was in HTF).

@Vulgard

In regards to Silviu your recent comments have made me a bit worried that I’m basically letting Marl push over a free ML by not going in harder on O. Kazo but I don’t think it’s that damaging because I assume I’ll get my way on O. Kazo either way by doing it like this and if he’s right then I can just call him town for sure and we’re one wolf down, two if I’m also right.

@Vulgard

VOTE: O.Kazo

Not sure if I’ll end on this or Silviu, but O.Kazo still hasn’t done anything and still hasn’t moved their vote at all while failing to explain the read. I feel like they might be in antispew.

To be fair the same thing could apply to Silviu so I’ll wait for him to come back and maybe switch if he doesn’t. Atp I really don’t care which one goes down.

@Vulgard

Actually, I think some people here were in Flicker? You mled O.Kazo there, were the circumstances similar at all?

@Vulgard

To be honest, even with you saying this, I’m really restraining myself from ramming that wagon into the ground for the sheer fact O.kazo plopped a wolfread and a vote on me for “tone”, refused to elaborate, basically said nothing in their interaction with me, left and never came back. I guess I could see a villager doing that but god .

@Vulgard

okay guys so i delivered you a wolf hope you’re happy with that

going to end this here
really don’t think Vul/Brad are aligned

Vul/May probably not aligned

Vul/molly maybe

Vul/O.kazo I think is probably also unaligned

[Lemonfairy]

I’m totally not getting this Cassandra reference

[Vulgard]

Cassandra Truth - TV Tropes

Don’t dive into the rabbit hole that is TVTropes but the explanation here is good

[Lemonfairy]

@May

This last one is the most important - I asked Magnus about Brad because I wanted content from them to analyze post-potential-wolf-flip. Talking to someone like you know they’re town is the best way to get a wolf to be comfortable with you and spew their partner. I was treating Magnus like obvious town, at least at first, knowingly and on purpose - I became more legitimately convinced they were town later on, but it wasn’t something I bought into all day.

I don’t believe this at all. You were talking to me as scum most of the time on D5 and a little bit for SOD6 too, with no reconsideration and it was not a pleasant experience (although tbf I was doing that to you and Magnus too).

[Lemonfairy]

oh it’s from Cassandra from Greek myth
I should’ve figured

[YoubutWorse]

Yea, though I havent like super anaylzed them and looked foe unaligned interactions, I think both are just independently kinda wolfy

[YoubutWorse]

Brad is more towny than may and molly rn still but thats my thoughts on the team

[YoubutWorse]

Down to kill may tbh, tho I will say buks argument against them are a bit flawd at points. Mays self defens eis also p bad tho so

[YoubutWorse]

@Vulgard

fwiw

btw only found out what fwiw actually meant yesterday

[YoubutWorse]

Vul* dont know how my phone typed buks lmao

[Lemonfairy]

me doing work part 2

May/Vul

@May

Brad because he notes that “ just like Vulgard’s joke , Brad is also joking” - that feels phrased in a way that would tie scum to town. Obviously it could flip the other way, too, and Vulgard being “ Maybe Null Town” could be a sign as well.

@May

Basically, if Zorvo is wolf, probably a wolf in Brad/Vulgard. If Brad is wolf, probably at maximum one wolf in Zorvo/YBW, but those two easily could be V/V. All very early, subject to change.

@May

Nobody knows. I’ve rolled town or town-enough 3P for like, fifteen games straight.

@May

No

14/150

@May

Silviu and O kazo both feel like MLs to me on pure instinct based on wagon movement. I don’t have that same feeling about Vulgard but I also off pure instinct think it’s a bit of a strange vote that has the potential to kill a strong townie. This post is bad and unproductive but I just woke up and I need to play Splatoon for an hour before I can think.

@May

I can multitask

@May

Vulgard you know what would be so epic. If you posted your top 3 townreads and what you think of their reads. All the cool kids are doing this now

@May

Town: Vulgard, Lemon, KingTroll, YBW
Null: Silviu et al, Magnus, Zorvo, Brad
Scum: Molly, Eliza

@May

I feel that applies to KT more than Vul. KT’s certainly been doing more controlling than Vulgard.

@May

If the wolves are Vulgard and O kazo? Absolutely. I think they’d know O kazo was getting eliminated early, and I could see it as Vulgard trying to just get it over with and bus early for massive towncred (and O kazo taking the distance a bit too far, such that it wraps around a little).

I don’t strongly wolfread Vulgard at this point, but that interaction is completely plausible to be W/W.

@May

Yes. What I’m saying is that “this interaction does not prove or disprove Vulgard being a wolf”. It could be W/W. It could not be. It maths out to nothing because I’m saying it’s NAI, unlike Magnus, who sort of suggested (and sort of didn’t) that it made Vulgard and O kazo unaligned.

@May

Yeah, what you’re looking at is that I’ve been playing this game badly. I am not playing it well. I usually do this for a while at the start of each game, and then get it together one I figure out who the wolves are, but unfortunately I haven’t done that, and logging off for a while to meditate on it didn’t help much (mostly because I spent most of it sleeping for 14 hours).

The readlist I gave was bad and inaccurate and I knew it was - I called them “shit” in the post itself. It was like… a list of… hm, how do I put this, vibes and tone? The sort of “what are my initial, kneejerk reactions, what do I think thread’s consensus on them is”, and I didn’t expect it to actually be a list of the scum? I know it’s strange to say that about a readlist, but, like… it’s what it was.

I need to get it together, I really do, and I appreciate the push to do so. My progression on Molly has been garbage and my attitude toward Eliza was bad - for the record, it was “I don’t think she’ll really flip scum but I’m not winning this fight and I don’t want to look like I’m hard defending her because then I’ll be so killed if I’m wrong”, the latter part of the argument being what’s so terrible about it - and that’s my fault. I just… dunno if I’m going to figure it out this game,

@May

I can at least try to encourage my townreads to help do the work for me.

Illwei, since you primarily scumread Vulgard, could I ask you to make a readlist of the living players solely in terms of chance to be Vulgard’s remaining partner? I think that’d help me think about this execution in a more informed manner (when currently I’m just… not thinking about it at all).

@May

Cool opinion I’d love to hear your opinions on: there is definitely a wolf in Vulgard/KT. Do I fully believe this? Uhhh maybe, depends if I hear a good argument for or against it, so convince me, please?

May/Brad

@May

Brad because he notes that “ just like Vulgard’s joke , Brad is also joking” - that feels phrased in a way that would tie scum to town. Obviously it could flip the other way, too, and Vulgard being “ Maybe Null Town” could be a sign as well.

@May

Interesting take, see above for my opinion on this, writing this down in my notebook of thoughts.

@May

Basically, if Zorvo is wolf, probably a wolf in Brad/Vulgard. If Brad is wolf, probably at maximum one wolf in Zorvo/YBW, but those two easily could be V/V. All very early, subject to change.

@May

Preflip connections are my lifeblood. I’ll admit that these are quite weak and normally not the thing I’d note aloud this early, but I’m trying to be more transparent with the sources of my reads, and also this game desperately needed some kind of push to make analysis actually possible. Zorvo’s reads were the first thing I thought to push.

@May

Do this every single day.

I’m not saying, like, tell mechanical lies, I don’t usually do that, but exclusively stating reads and making pushes you believe is so boring and dull and also useless for finding scum… how do you interact with D1s, when you don’t have any reads? Just sit around and say “we know nothing and I know nothing”… yeah, it’s 100% true, but it won’t get you anywhere. You have to fake it until you make it.

17/150

@May

Being confident enough in a scumread to fakeclaim a redcheck on them is like, my dream. I idolize anyone who could be that bold. I’ve never done it, but there’s times I wish I could’ve. I realize that this is maybe not a good or pro-town opinion of mine, but it’s a fun one.

18/150

@May

But… teehee funnie

19/150

@May

I’ve realized that expressing my passion for pushing bad suspicions as a reaction test just after posting my case on KingTroll was a mistake, but I promise this is a real case that I actually believe and KingTroll is my #1 suspicion right now. Does anyone besides Brad have opinions on it?

@May

Susus amongus

25/150

@May

Thoughts on the Brad and O kazo votes

@May

One more thing - I should at the very least follow up on yesterday’s whole thing with a placeholder vote, and that’ll be VOTE: BradLand

@May

Hi! Thank you for asking. I completely misremembered your actions on D1 and for some reason thought you placed a vote on O kazo before switching over to Silviu. This is the kind of logic that underlies all of my decisions.

@May

No I doublechecked your iso you definitely didn’t I’m just being the circus clown today

@May

[typed up before your question, Brad, I’ll get to it soon]

Well, the destruction of my Brad read probably means I should at least quickly do a 5-minute opinion-generation before I go to bed. I don’t trust that Zorvo’s town, but for the sake of take creation, I’m going to create a world where he is, and he’s placed a vote on O kazo saying we can just flip an easy wolf there. How do the wolves react?

@May

In previous games I’ve realized that when I try to claim someone is a townread on D2, I am claiming something entirely perpendicular to “this person is likely to be town”.

It’s more like… I have strong or weak reads on people, and a strong read means “I know how this person acts, who they’re likely aligned or unaligned with, and I know what future patterns of behavior I’m looking out for to see if they’re wolf”, and I’ll describe that as a “townread”. A weak read means “I don’t entirely understand this person’s behavior, I don’t really know who they’d be aligned with, I need to pressure them more to find out”, and on D1 and D2 I’ll describe this as a “wolfread”.

…

That being said, I “townread” KingTroll and YoubutWorse. I don’t… really have anything else, I haven’t reread with O kazo’s flip, so I don’t really have a handle on most people… I want to look into min and Vulgard and Lemonfairy and so on, people my mind has just been blocking out so that I don’t get too overwhelmed by trying to read so many people at once. Tomorrow. Tomorrow.

@May

That’s literally what you said in the post I had quoted. My point wasn’t that Brad was right to have you in top town, my point was that you were very aware of whether people were TRing you. Weak tell, but it stood out to me.

@May

Marl and Brad appeared to have a bit of an… undue focus on each other? Brad’s early TR of Marl, which was tossed in with Zorvo and I (May addicted to rule of 3 moments), Marl mentioning “not caring for” Brad or YBW, calling out that TR despite it being fairly weak, how they both treated the Silviu wagon, etc. There’s parallels I can see.

@May

In a town Marl world, I’d look at Molly and Brad, maybe Zorvo and Brad?, I saw a potential connection between Silviu('s slot) and Eliza, it’s a bit all over the place at the moment, largely, I think, because I haven’t super closely looked at the formation of Marl’s wagon, which is where most of the information on his flip comes from.

@May

Town: Vulgard, Lemon, KingTroll, YBW
Null: Silviu et al, Magnus, Zorvo, Brad
Scum: Molly, Eliza

@May

Lemon came around last-minute and shifted from Brad to Silvu, think that’s town enough?

@May

respectable vote by molly

VOTE: KingTroll

I’m not paying attention but Brad told me not to vote molly and I’m too sleepy to protest

@May

Wait so I can create a washingmachine cycle this way? That’s hilarious. Actually let’s all vote Molly VOTE: Molly

@May

Anyway, in terms of the actual game that we are playing right now, my gutread compass is spinning a little wildly… Molly I’m not super confident in, honestly, I think my read on her being partnered with KT was mostly just wanting a solve. I’ll have to work on logic-ing out potential combinations of wolfteams - might spreadsheet it, I’ve got an hour or two before I have to start thinking about going to sleep (and probably three hours after that to actually do it).

@May

Not possible. I’m the memorablest guy in the earth. Everyone is always saying this

@May

Anyone who’s participated in this thread’s quick descent into madness is cleared town that means you Brad Magnus Illwei let’s go kill KingTroll now

@May

I’m going to meticulously go back through every record of conversation I have with another human being and take back all of the apologies, BRB.

@May

This comes as a huge surprise to me. I can’t believe we weren’t warned about this shit in advance… now, I’m no legal expert on things that don’t include whether land ownership extends to the center of the earth, but surely if we were to be prevented from posting (a form of Just and True Speech) we would be required to sign some kind of contract or make some sort of acknowledgement of it. Fucked up. Let’s go execute the GMs.

May/molly

@May

Embrace it. I cite “the crystal ball in my head” for all my reads, D1 or otherwise.

@May

Alright, I’ve just come back to thread and… yeah, I was originally avoiding reading Silviu because I was doing silly littol auto-trusts in the back of my mind (May CONFIRMED for antitown behavior), but looking at it through the lens you provided, the content they’ve provided is really strange. More posts than me and far less content.

At the very least, I’d like to see more pressure on Silviu to provide content, because what they’ve done so far does not inspire any confidence, and if nothing changes, I certainly wouldn’t mind this execution at the end of the day. Since nobody is taking my KT vote particularly seriously anyway, I’ll toss in a VOTE: Silviu200530.

23/150

@May

If Marl’s wolf, I think Zorvo’s almost certainly town, KT and Molly are probably town, andddd now I have to go oops bye everyon

@May

Going off of what I remember, yeah, Molly/Marl seems super plausible. I’ll have to read back with it in mind to verify, of course, but

@May

Molly and Marl as a scumteam have been extensively explained by Lemon, a read that I may or may not have undue trust in because it parallels the way I typically find and present reads. Lemon’s towny anyway so it can’t be that harmful to be biased, right? I see the potential connection on my own anyway.

@May

In a town Marl world, I’d look at Molly and Brad, maybe Zorvo and Brad?, I saw a potential connection between Silviu('s slot) and Eliza, it’s a bit all over the place at the moment, largely, I think, because I haven’t super closely looked at the formation of Marl’s wagon, which is where most of the information on his flip comes from.

@May

Hi all, I’m out and about today and can’t be around until much later in the night. Just want to note that yeah, Molly sus, I want to look into Zorvo, and that I do apologize a little to Marl about all that.

@May

Bonus question: who do you think has the most accurate reads in the game, and do you think that person is town or scum with TMI?
…
I’ll also avoid keeping my vote idle - going to toss in a VOTE: Molly, because her reads have been pinging TMI for me. High honor if she’s town, of course, but I’m not sure in the slightest that that’s true.

@May

For the record I wasn’t thinking about you specifically when I asked that question, I wanted people to forced to “align” themselves with someone cause it creates fun connections.

I don’t even necessarily think you have particularly accurate reads as of now, just that you were suspiciously good in the past, and the question was present-tense.

@May

Town: Vulgard, Lemon, KingTroll, YBW
Null: Silviu et al, Magnus, Zorvo, Brad
Scum: Molly, Eliza

@May

• These uqestions were asked by a version of me that no longer exists. Please take this up with the one who woke up on September 26th, 2022, as my experience of time is nonlinear and I do not remember what she was up to. You’ll have to go experience time nonlinearly as well, but I trust that is no issue
• Dont know what else to tell you other than I didnt mean it htat way. “This person has TMI{” literally 50% of the mafia reads you can make (other half being “this person has agenda”) and is a core tenant of just like being right online. PLease trademark the concept of TMI if you would like me to stop using it in other contexts, thank you

@May

Welcome to my Molly/KT wolf world I don’t know if I fully believe it but I sure have constructed it and once I’ve built a world I usually don’t let it go. I’ll have to re-evaluate if Eliza flips W, of course, but I suspect I’ll bemore focused on deflecting the various objects that will be thrown at me in that case.

@May

VOTE: molly

@May

What about find the scumteam, who are KingTroll and Molly,

@May

Given the fact that an explanation eludes me for now, and that I think KT’s most likely hypothetical partner is Molly, and that other people agree with me that Molly’s a bit scummy, etc etc et al, I’ll leave a VOTE: Molly. I’m not as strongly insistent on my KT read as I was yesterday, I think

@May

respectable vote by molly

VOTE: KingTroll

I’m not paying attention but Brad told me not to vote molly and I’m too sleepy to protest

@May

Wait so I can create a washingmachine cycle this way? That’s hilarious. Actually let’s all vote Molly VOTE: Molly

@May

Anyway, in terms of the actual game that we are playing right now, my gutread compass is spinning a little wildly… Molly I’m not super confident in, honestly, I think my read on her being partnered with KT was mostly just wanting a solve. I’ll have to work on logic-ing out potential combinations of wolfteams - might spreadsheet it, I’ve got an hour or two before I have to start thinking about going to sleep (and probably three hours after that to actually do it).

@May

Amongus sususus… Wheres the body. Tasks. Cerwmate. Impostor.

@May

I need to get it together, I really do, and I appreciate the push to do so. My progression on Molly has been garbage and my attitude toward Eliza was bad - for the record, it was “I don’t think she’ll really flip scum but I’m not winning this fight and I don’t want to look like I’m hard defending her because then I’ll be so killed if I’m wrong”, the latter part of the argument being what’s so terrible about it - and that’s my fault.

May/O.kazo

@May

Thoughts on the Brad and O kazo votes

@May

Oh & I’d love to hear your thought’s on Zorvo’s shift in attitude specifically - of course, that comes with considering the O kazo vote, but since that’s what a lot of your earlier comments were about, I think you’d probably have meaningful input on that (and my brain does Not)

@May

Silviu and O kazo both feel like MLs to me on pure instinct based on wagon movement. I don’t have that same feeling about Vulgard but I also off pure instinct think it’s a bit of a strange vote that has the potential to kill a strong townie. This post is bad and unproductive but I just woke up and I need to play Splatoon for an hour before I can think.

@May

I was, and yeah, very similar circumstances, he seemed an obvious wolf but just… wasn’t. I think it’s part of what makes the O kazo vote feel like a ML to me. I advocated for it in Flicker because I needed his flip, but I don’t think that’s useful here.

@May

The wagon initially took off because Silviu had posted a lot about, like, general mafia gameplay, but hadn’t given any opinions on anyone’s behavior within the game. It felt like they were trying to look helpful without actually giving any reads to link them to. They’ve since given some actual opinions, which I’m satisfied with for now, so I’ve moved off that wagon.

@May

O kazo voters, what do you think you’ll get out of this vote? If O kazo flips mafia, who will that affect your opinion on, and if he flips town? Same goes for any other vote.

I’ve got to agree with O kazo here, I’m tired. I don’t feel like making real reads… something in the back of my head still wants Marl dead and flipped, but I don’t know why, so I’ll stick with that vote. I’d rather Silviu die than O kazo, but I’d be more interested in voting most other people, because stagnation & all that.

@May

Well, it’s late enough in the day phase that I’ll start asking my obligatory pre-execution questions, from most to least interested in an answer:

What would everyone say the % chance of O kazo flipping scum is?
If he’s scum, how many of his buddies do you think are bussing?
If he’s town, how many scum are probably on his wagon?
Who are his most and least likely partners?
Does anyone want to start a flashwagon?
Which people would you go after if he flipped V?
What alternative vote do you think would have the highest chance of flipping scum?
What alternative vote do you think would provide us the best information upon flip?

@May

Hi gamers. I’m a massive clown, but in my defense, it was D1.

I dropped that last-minute Silviu vote because I genuinely thought O kazo was town - the wagon on him had played out identically to the time we MLed him in Flicker, and if I am one thing, it’s obsessed with continual self-improvement to an exaggerated degree! That’s my bad. I was overcompensating for what I saw as my mistake in Flicker. I also just thought the wagon was boring and uninformative, and I’m not used to D1s without last-minute flashwagons… I think every game I’ve played here has had one.

@May

I can’t get a good read on O kazo’s, like, mindset this game… makes it hard to look for teammates. I suppose that makes sense, given I dropped the ball so hard on scumreading him in the first place. No content. Getting out a wolf D1 may be good for my “town wincon” motivations, but it’s hard for my “looking smart and cool” ones, which, let’s be real,l greatly outweigh the former.

I do think O kazo/Zorvo W/W is not far-fetched at all, though I haven’t read closely enough to know if I actually believe it. I’m going to go play Splatoon more.

@May

[typed up before your question, Brad, I’ll get to it soon]

Well, the destruction of my Brad read probably means I should at least quickly do a 5-minute opinion-generation before I go to bed. I don’t trust that Zorvo’s town, but for the sake of take creation, I’m going to create a world where he is, and he’s placed a vote on O kazo saying we can just flip an easy wolf there. How do the wolves react?

Going off of pure theory, not what any specific people did (I haven’t read that yet)… probably try to sidestep around it. Avoid interacting with it extensively. Zorvo… not to be rude, but Zorvo tends to have difficulty convincing others of his reads early in the game. Maybe do a token gesture of “huh, where’s this read coming from, I don’t heavily disagree or townread O kazo but I bet the other wagons are better and more informative, but I’m still open to this execution”.

As it becomes clear the execution will probably be between O kazo or Silviu, they’d probably pick whichever seems safest - it’s D1 and O didn’t provide much content, so it’d probably be okay to sit on Silviu, and maybe the other wolf sticks on a vanity wagon. They’d probably try to amplify the voices of townies defending O (that’s me) if possible, but not too strongly…

I don’t think they were bussing for towncred at first - at the very least, both of them weren’t. It was D1, Silviu had some suspicious patterns of behavior, delaying that execution until the town environment was more established would be good anyway, so I’d look for late movement toward the wagon, I think? Neutrality and discussion of Seth’s early reads in the abstract → as wagon picks up steam, start trying to bus while still soft pushing alternate wagons? From what I recall, I am describing Marl… Let me read back and check.

@May

And you had already stated that O kazo was a coinflip a thousand times and explained why you thought it. Your “arguments” here were just restatements of the posts I was quoting. There is nothing here, and so analyzing your responses provides me nothing . Defending myself against this accusation provides me something , at least, so I did it. Not a disgrace to the concept of being town. A grace to the concept of not wasting my damn time.

@May

Anyway I got bored of reading halfway through D1 but that’s cool and based. From what I saw, a Marl/O kazo team looks unaligned with Vulgard, Zorvo and Silviu, and to a lesser extent lol and Magnus. They’d be possibly aligned with Brad, Molly, and to a lesser extent Eliza, depending on how Marl was playing the game. I independently townread KingTroll, Lemon, and to a lesser extent YBW.

@May

O kazo LHF wolf, Zorvo (town) early on says “let’s just kill him he’s definitely wolf” but is wrong on other reads. Do they hop on the wagon, move to discredit him, bus O kazo to try to push Zorvo’s other reads (despite the fact that town is reluctant to trust him), that’s a spider on my wall so epic, with the hindsight of the extra townflips I didn’t have when analyzing this on D2 I think they bus here. At least one, if not both. Silviu is a competing wagon throughout the day that I think is probably town?

@May

Not an insult to Eliza I’m not speaking broadly I’m talking this specific game. An easy wolf/ML since O kazo literally said he was wolf with her D1

@May

If the wolves are Vulgard and O kazo? Absolutely. I think they’d know O kazo was getting eliminated early, and I could see it as Vulgard trying to just get it over with and bus early for massive towncred (and O kazo taking the distance a bit too far, such that it wraps around a little).

I don’t strongly wolfread Vulgard at this point, but that interaction is completely plausible to be W/W.

@May

Yes. What I’m saying is that “this interaction does not prove or disprove Vulgard being a wolf”. It could be W/W. It could not be. It maths out to nothing because I’m saying it’s NAI, unlike Magnus, who sort of suggested (and sort of didn’t) that it made Vulgard and O kazo unaligned.

@May

It was literally the last second, yeah. And O kazo was going to go down sooner or later, so probably not even worth the last-minute swap if it meant the attention.

I think I’ll stop here on May

May/Vul not aligned

May/Brad probably also not aligned

Maybe aligned with molly
I can see it

Could be aligned with O.kazo

[Lemonfairy]

I’m so tired (mentally) and don’t want to ISO anymore

[Host_Account_1]

May (2): BradLand, Vulgard
BradLand (1): May

Not Voting (3): Lemonfairy, mollylikesorigami, YoubutWorse

Day ends 2022-10-07T22:00:00Z

[YoubutWorse]

@May

KT and Molly are probably town

@May

olly/Marl seems super plausible.

@May

Molly and Marl as a scumteam

@May

In a town Marl world, I’d look at Molly

weird progression here

[YoubutWorse]

omg its goat

[YoubutWorse]

U dont have to yknow

[Lemonfairy]

ikr

[YoubutWorse]

What r ur thoughts on a may/molly world? That seems like the one were in rn and I wanna hear thoughts

[Lemonfairy]

I feel like I should

I’ll take a break and finish it later if I still have the motivation
otherwise

[YoubutWorse]

Its fine if you don’t, Ill hopefully do some later(?) we’ll see how I feel later