Hydra Popcorn - Cat Flavor: Day 5 (6/11) - Mafia Win

A battle to the death.
Not like there’s much we can do for now, since the only hydra with main control is GGhana/Min
Sure we can direct them but we don’t have the final say

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Random eevee thoughts:

Slots seem to have different strategies / motivations driving them. Two most notably stand out:

First are more focused on being good looking, while only expressing thoughts for the consistency.
Second are focused on actively pushing, while risking own position. Both with current gun owner, and even more with person they are pushing.

Those are extreame explanations, in reality most of slots are a mix of different aproaches.

My question - while it’s obvious that town is more likely to focus on attacking on this site, I’m wondering how much defense play is within town limits on this site.

Imo town can actually only defend themselves and their own position up to a point
Beyond that and it’s not within their control, so all they can do is advocate their reads regardless of how people are reading them
In contrast, scum will continue to defend themselves as well as advocate their reads because they are trying to become townread enough that people will respect their reads and even agree with them
But because their focus is on passing for villagers rather than just giving an opinion that they hold regardless of how they read, the way they approach their reads is usually not the same.

-ww

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Imo
If people can’t see I’m town here, that’s on them and not on me

I know wolves will do two things to my slot because I’m being louder than in the previous hydra game

The first is that they will be too scared to scumread me, and townread me for very consensus reasons. This mostly comes from wolves familiar with me as a player who are more cautious when I’m town.

The second is that they will go against the flow and try to push me as scum in order to save their own skin and look like they’re not just going with consensus, but it’s blatant agenda when it boils down to it. This usually comes from wolves who haven’t played with me before and it is a very consistent tell. (They usually never do it again, either lol)

I believe the Zwelious slot falls into the second category because Seth knows better but LP does not
And Seth definitely knows better than to push me, so imo he is not the hydra head leading a push on me because he’s familiar with my meta and is aware of that. LP does not and has the excuse either way as someone I haven’t played with before that they don’t know my meta, but their logic against me is shallow at best and doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. I made them panic about a possible scum slip and they reacted in an extremely wolfy way by hedging their entire read on me. Changing reads can be towny, but not in the way they proceeded to do so. And when asked for his opinion, Seth just said “yeah I agree” which is definitely not I’d expect of someone I think is a very opinionated and loud player as town.

-ww

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I hope this makes more sense now that I’ve said this @bingusbongusbangus

And if you still think I’m a wolf and Z is town… then I’m sorry for your mistakes lol
But at the very least, don’t shoot me because I don’t want you guys dying.

-ww

pretty sure the lol/dota slot is just obvious mafia atp

look at dota’s day 1 in higurashi
look at lol’s day 1 in railgun

-g

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And for what eevee said…
I will absolutely risk my position with the gun holder if it comes down to it and I’m confident enough
Worst case scenario, gun holder dies, I get the gun, I talk with the thread and shoot where we agree there’s scum
Best case scenario we don’t get the gun and the OG gun holder survives by shooting a wolf
Mediocre scenario they shoot someone who seems wolfy but is actually town, and the gun passes to them

The reason the mediocre scenario isn’t that bad is because it’s still town holding the gun and if they have any sense in their heads they will at least talk to the thread before shooting, and they also become an IC who can’t be pushed further

So I see no disadvantage in risking my thread position to hard push a slot I believe is a wolf, because if I’m wrong, they become an IC and we solve around it. The only real downside is that the OG gun holder dies, but that’s a risk with any shot they take until we know for sure.

-ww

Guess it’s high time I iso them

-ww

This is a terrible defense
It’s like saying “this player is a willager so don’t bother wolf reading them until they endgame and win” which is extremely familiar given our last game and what was said about Jake earlier in that game and this one

Get out with your fake reads

This slot can die, I went through the entire iso and there’s nothing of substance besides this random explanation on why Seth should be town but happens to be the only explanation this slot has given on anything at all

-ww

why

Usually I’d be wary of a slot that’s consensus scumread being LHF but I think they have extremely high wolf equity with Zwelious so I’d be happy with shooting there

-ww

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have you read the reasons for why I decided they’re town

i think that from the mindset that zwei was working from from how wolves play their reaction was valid

*shooting the heghogs

It was not a valid reaction
I did read your reasoning and it has merit but is also completely fakeable by a wolf following a manual on how to act like town despite pushing agenda

-ww

it’s this post and the next

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That’s the OP…

i read your reasons and the post he made which you based your read on and i… actually kinda agree

the problem was the post which i actually understood came like, 2 hours later than it should have, and at that point wolf zweilous could have plausibly consolidated their thoughts into something that made sense

-g

this sounds like there’s basically no reason you’ll ever townread zwei then

in which case I don’t really want to listen to your reasons for why zwei can be mafia since you’re obviously extremely biased?

like if from the perspective of how they solve and the knowledge they had at the time (that somehow you didn’t read the op, and therefore your push wasn’t as bad as it actually was) but they’re still a wolf then there’s basically no reason for me to village read anyone for the quality of their thought process which is how I make the most of my reads so

counterpoint

what he said still makes no sense

Consider the reaction times between LP and me earlier
I have an extremely strong scumread on the slot due to realtime interactions because I legitimately believe they panicked when I accused them of TMI
regardless of whether it was TMI or not I don’t think they reacted in a towny way
I also believe the post actually is TMI because it was worded so terribly that no matter how I’ve tried to look at it, it still reads as “wind is not a wolf defending wolf!cheese and wind is not a wolf whiteknighting town!cheese” so to say that I’m actually a null when they’ve eliminated both worlds in which I’m a wolf is yikes
And then further accuse me of TMI’ing cheese as town

-ww