Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

I think the strictly optimal thing is to keep sweeping the playerlist and avoid the d1 wagons. when we hit 2/3 we can revisit them

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if we hit another 1/3 then we do it again

and then statistically by d3 we should have at least 3 clears

the best case scenario is a 2/3 or 0/3 today, although that does mean nothing has changed really

Current reads from towniest → scummiest
Spooky
Goose
Magnus
Chomps
Badeline
Ash
–Scum line–
Quail
Prisma
Fusion
Pandora
Lee

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(sorry if this is hard to see)
-Lee looks better if Fusion is wolf, worse if Chomps is
-Fusion and Quail having the same votes is interesting, can’t really tell if it’s a pair or not. s!pandora could be a good look for both? though I feel like neither expected Pandora to be in top 3 and neither pushed it very hard so it’s a very light unpairing
-Not a huge fan of Badeline and Magnus both(?) expressing dissatisfaction with the top wagons and yet voting them anyway. Could see a wolf between the two.
-Chomps votes are terrible
-Tempted to say Ash actually looks good off their votes if there’s more than one scum in badeline/prisma/quail (not if there’s only one though)
-One scum in ash/badeline if pandora is scum, if I had to guess?

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thinking the most likely slots I’m wrongly scum reading are quail and pandora, lee also possible

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What do you think about fusion’s vote that contained both themself and pandora?

I don’t understand this line of thinking. If anon was mafia, ash would be spewed town. You don’t scumread anon though, and then this still leads to Ash being town? More so than anonygoose, who should be mechtown in your eyes if you scumread fusion that much.

I really really don’t like this wallpost, feels like the reasons behind the reads are all made up.

What makes you think fusion more than chomps?

I think of the 4 options Anon presented we should either clear some counterwagons or avoid everything.

What do you think about them voting like they did last second?

I don’t think Fusion and Pandora are aligned because of this vote attempt, which the former proposed upon the wagons being found with satisfaction. The former had been bouncing between Pandora and Fusion all day, and suggested this to a pair of highly active players with the guess they wouldn’t go ahead with it? With that said, there’s no tangible reason for v!Fusion to vote suspected!Pandora, and uses their themed pick as justification which feels sorta lowkey for a “spicy” wagon selection.

Fusion isn’t confirmed evil by any means, it was just my first consideration.

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You have listed all the lower posters in red.

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image
Maybe he’s onto something here.

I don’t pandora was anywhere near top votes when it was placed so it was still going for a 1/3

I don’t, but I’m not 100% sure they aren’t mafia, I’m more certain on them not being, but i shouldn’t disconsider other worlds

One of them is wolf, one of them spews Ash town, that’s what I’m certain on

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So do you see pandora and fusion as scumbuddies? Because if pandora and fusion are scumbuddies, having them both in a wagon would be a 2/3.

Are you saying that if either were a wolf they would both spew Ash town?

Yeah, but if Pandora wasn’t being voted, Fusion was still putting votes on me and herself, progessing it to a 1/3

wasn’t being voted by other people*

One of them is a wolf and the wolf in them spews Ash town, more certain on this on my more certain world of Fusion being wolf

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How does fusion spew ash town?

The anon, fusion & ash vote?

2 good 1 bad

2 good 1 bad, Ash was a major wagon and this would push a 1/3 instead of a 2/3

1 good 2 bad while Pandora had 2 votes, thus only 1 good and 1 bad matters here