Pushing back my wallpost deadline because I’m slow as fuck at this. Sorry!
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The former idea is broadly safe irrespective of who’s evil, nobody can really interfere with the number of worlds, only who is sorted into which pool. Yep.
It’s something to decide halfway into the day once everyone has spoken, probably.
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What’s the obligation to rush? Don’t worry, you have as much time as you need.
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Don’t apologize for reading me the way you do. You can feel that the post is LAMIST. I’m not gonna stop you from doing that.
I would however appreciate if everybody took a second look at my slot, the slot that apparently 11/12 players in this game agree is scum, and maybe think if theres a reason all 11 players, including both mafia, would think this.
If it makes you feel any better, I don’t think you’re evil.
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This might reflect poorly on me later, or look like a pocketing attempt at the moment, so just inoculate yourself against that thought.
My original stance would have been that Ash and Chomps are the players I townread the most this game. Granted, this is strongly predicated on my assurance that Badeline is evil; but even if that’s a falsehood, I don’t think either have been making moves which could be plausibly interrupted as evil from my lens, their thoughts and behaviours both resonate as making sense to me as players.
Granted, I also expected a 2/3 result yesterday, but that was just my insight. Ash tried voting Quail instead of Lee, which wasn’t likely to go through at that time, but it nonetheless sets a stance. Chomps did vote alongside me, I don’t remember what result they expected.
If Quail is evil with Badeline, I did make a mistake. If Badeline is good, the extent of my error runs far deeper. But the votes don’t really lie.
w!Anonygoose upsetting the D1 wagons if Ash and Badeline were going to both flip V… makes written sense, but the latter’s propensity leaves a lot of questions if it’s motivated from a V perspective. Like clinging to the Ash / Magnus world past when it made any more logical sense. I’m unlikely to find v!Badeline if that exists, sorry. I think Ash and Chomps are both fine.
I don’t know who I townread more of the D2 pool, exempting Badeline. This shouldn’t matter, but if Badeline was a villager, I’d guess w!Lee but everyone else says otherwise and I’m not more accurate than an entire townsquare. Prisma had been taking the bare minimum approach all game, with a decided lack of motivated villager impulses while Lee made attempts — particularly at the end of yesterday. Therefore, Lee is more likely town.
Of the other unvoted players, I’ve been townreading Pandora for long enough that I’ve forgotten my express reasoning for doing so. Of the others, Quail / Spook / Red / Magnus, I can exclude myself. Red has been proactive, and voted two potential evils all the way back to (#129), and has taken several nuanced approaches to his reads. Like when he said I was pushing agenda but still sounded town, that’s an odd stance for an evil player. But he has been doomsaying quite a bit recently, and I disagreed with practically his entire D2 ISO.
Next to that, Spook is almost certainly earnest town, but I’ll codify that read after D&D today. If Red is town, they would have been spoken for in good faith. Quail is the LHF of the unselected slots, unless I reconsider Pandora — but even she’s just been pushed all game by people I consider suspicious, so I don’t really buy it anymore.
As for anyone who read to the end, I’m just ruminating. This wasn’t required reading.
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I did give both prisma and littlelee a read, but then got distracted by the music I was listening to.
My current read is there’s not enough content to go off of. Kanave is off to a good start, and will likely give something actually readable for that slot later today. Littlelee I have a scumlean on for some specific posts but nothing that really leans me entirely one way or the other. It’s hard to make a read on someone with 12 posts that are semi game related and 7 posts that came while they were still backreading. Hopefully that’ll be easier to do later today.
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Vocabulary
Within this post I will be describing players the following way:
Group 1 are the players we voted D1. They are “group 1 wolf” “group one town 1” “group 1 town 2”
Group 2 are the players we voted yesterday. They are “group 2 wolf” “group 2 town 1” “group 2 town 2”
Group 3 are the players that have yet to be voted. They are “Group 3 Town 1-5” and “Group 3 wolf”
or W1 W2 W3 1T1 1T2 2T1 2T2 3T1, 3T2, 3T3, 3T4, 3T5
Probability Notation
P(X) is the probability of X happening
P(X’) is the probability of X NOT happening
P(X∩Y) is the probability of X AND Y happening
P(XΔY) is the probability of X OR Y happening
P(X∪Y) is the probabiliy of AT LEAST ONE of X or Y happening
Approach 1: Checking 3 within Groups 1 and 2
In this scenario, we aim for an implied or direct 2/3 within the first two groups.
P(A) is hitting 2/3
P(B) is hitting 1/3
P(C) is hitting 0/3
P(A) and P(C) imply each other, so for this to work mathematically P(B) JUST needs to be smaller than P(AΔC)
P(A) = P(W1∩W2) which means there’s 4 outcomes (One for each town)
P(B) = P(W1ΔW2) which means there are 6 outcomes (1T1 + 1T2, 1T1 + 2T1, 1T1 + 2T2, 1T2 + 2T1, 1T2 + 2T2, 2T1 + 2T2)
P(C) = P((W1∪W2)’) which means there are 4 outcomes (1T1 + 1T2 + 2T1, 1T1 + 1T2 + 2T2, 1T1 + 2T1 + 2T2, 1T2 + 2T1 + 2T2)
Therefore using this route P(AΔC) = 8/14 and P(B) = 6/14 and it is more likely than not we hit or imply a 2/3
Approach 2: Combing the Final 6
In this scenario, P(D) is hitting or implying a 1/3 in the final 6. because this happens regardless of our result today, P(D) = 10/10
"Approach 3: Pre-Emptive Cross-Examination
In this scenario, we take 1 member of Group 1, 1 member of Group 2, and 1 member of Group 3.
P(E) is 3/3
P(F) is 2/3
P(G) is 1/3
P(H) is 0/3
For this to be useful, P(EΔI) needs to be larger than P(FΔH). It is functionally impossible to tell the different versions of P(FΔH) (Hitting the final wolf in Group 3 or one of the wolves in Groups 1 & 2 / Hitting both wolves in Groups 1&2 or just one and the final wolf) apart, so they are functionally worthless to us.
P(E) is 1/54 (1/3 x 1/3 x 1/6)
P(F) is 9/54 (W1 +W2 x5, W1+ W3 x 2, W2 + W3 x 2
P(G) is 24/54 (W1+ 2T1 x 5, W1 + 2T2 x 5, W2 + 1T1 x 5, W2 + 1T2 x 5, W3 x 4)
P(H) is 20/54 (2/3 x 2/3 x 5/6)
Therefore P(EΔH) is 25/54 and P(FΔG) is 29/54, meaning that statistically we gain no new information from this method
D4 Game Theory
P(AΔC) gives us a pool of 2/3 and a pool of 1/6, for a probability of 1/18 chance of hitting all three wolves D4
P(D) gives us 3 pools of 1/3 for a probability of 1/27 chance of hitting all three wolves
P(H) gives us two pools of 1/2 and a pool of 1/5, for a 1/20 chance of hitting all three wolves D4, however it’s the one most swung by Masons- If one of the 1/2s contains a mason that goes up significantly.
P(BΔFΔI) gives us no more information than we started with and is thus a 1/54 chance of hitting 3 wolves d4, but this is obviously modified by social reads
P(E) is a 1/54 chance of winning on the spot and making none of this relevant
TL;DR
This is a pretty clean case of “High risk, High reward”. Method 1 is moderate risk for moderate reward - A 4/7 chance of having a 1/18 chance tomorrow
Method 2 is low risk for low reward - A garanteed chance of having a 1/27 chance tomorrow
Method 3 is high risk for high reward - A 4/9 chance of having a 1/20 tomorrow that can be further raised to up to 1/5 in the best case scenario
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edits for formatting and spelling
IIOA, big lame
how is this not analysis
it’s literally a mathematical proof about what atrategies we should be using today
how is it analysis?
math isn’t solving. it’s nice optimization but it’s not solving
it’s literally a mathematical proof about what strategies we should be using today
It’s not “what strategies we should be using”, it’s “what strategies can we use?”.
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it’s just mech analysis
I already said what strategy I think we should be using based on my instinct about the probabilities and then I spent 80 minutes doing the probability math to make sure I was correct
And I was not! For the record! I think that Approach C is actually optimal
may I clarify, when you give these odds (4/9 of the 1/20 and 4/7 of 1/18) what is the alternative? IE: if we miss the 4/9 or 4/7