Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

I really was cooking yesterday lmao

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Time for Mafia Direct?

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Ok i didnt see the words that makes no sense ffa i hate posting gifs on mobile

Chopped off toes are a delicacy in giant culture.

I’d just like to ask. But what’s the rush if we’re really in the lead? Personally, ruling out an entire quarter of the cast can lead to a better exit out of the apex, as opposed to trying to cut the corner.

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From how you put it, directly anticipating the possibility of only a 1/3 is the perfect cover for the remaining wolf to fill in, as they are absolutely certain of it, on top of easily being agreed with. It’s a huge gamble on your end to be the first one to volunteer at all. Whether to keep anyone else that could be wolf from doing it first or the sake of being the noble one to step up ahead of everyone else.

Would also like to point out you along with Ash seemed to unquestionably assume Badeline was the wolf out of last night’s pool with no further displayed consideration for the other two. Someone who has historically been easy to pin as a wolf all game.

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Thinkin this scenario over, am sensing my mind being changed for its favor.
The overall reward is much greater, almost guaranteeing 2 confirmed wolves as opposed to deducing the entire pool down to 3 of 9.

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Chomps (3): pandora, Chomps, Magnus
Kanave (3): pandora, Chomps, Magnus
Magnus (2): pandora, Chomps
Anonygoose (3): RedPandas, spookycat27, Anonygoose
Badeline (4): RedPandas, spookycat27, Anonygoose, Badeline
Ash (2): RedPandas, Badeline
Quail (1): spookycat27
LittleLee (1): Anonygoose
RedPandas (1): Badeline

Not Voting (5): Quail, LittleLee, Ash, Kanave, FusionMoon314

maybot being the last message was scary had to make sure the day wasn’t over or something lol

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Am I wrong or does this only benefit us if we can get a 2/3 or 0/3. If we get another 1/3 does that help us?

I don’t have time to explain it as am heading to work, check pandora’s post that I quoted off of-

I feel like the probability only works if we are picking at random. If we have 3 people who will obviously be trying to swing the vote to a 1/3, our odds of choosing a 1/3 must be higher.

It does, but it’s not as useful as a 2/3 or 0/3 would be.
We would get a pair that we know would either guaranteed be town together or guaranteed be mafia together.

Group 1: A B C
Group 2: D E F

Say we go ABD and get 1/3. We have two options:

  1. D was the mafia in Group 2. If A or B were the mafia in Group 1, ABD would be a 2/3. Therefore, C must also be mafia.
  2. D was not the mafia in Group 2. In this case, if C were the mafia in Group 1, ABD would be a 0/3. Therefore, C must also not be mafia.

As such, C & D would share an alignment, though we’d have to piece together whether that alignment is town or mafia.

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A 1/3 is valuable if and only if we design the groups in a specific way.
Again, we need to determine whose alignments we want to solve for and work backwards from there.

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Because to me if we get a 1/3 then one of two things happened.

  1. The two people we chose were mafia.
  2. Neither person was.

Either way we would probably need another vote to decide?

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Who do you think the two scum are in the d1/d2 jailed?

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Still think it’s Badeline and Fusion, but I’m coming around to your w!Goose argument.