Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

I wish. it would confirm them as scum

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Goose, it’s clear you’re obsessed with everything I say and would adore to receive my attention, but you can’t just skulk around corners and stalk me. That’s a criminal endeavour.

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How so?

Yes, sorry about that.

I needed time to quell the betrayal I felt after the vote results. That and how bad my reads were. I guess that’s part of the learning curve.

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You’re all good, don’t worry.

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It’s funny that goose turned out to be wolf. I was looking at his early posts and thought it was weird he kept repeating how town he is. There is a saying if you repeat a lie often enough people begin to believe it’s true. That’s the vibe I had but I thought maybe I was overthinking things.

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VOTE: anonygoose

Having backread, I’m certain that w!Quail would’ve had to play recklessly to the point of potentially game-throwing.
This has to be Pandas.
VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Goose
VOTE: Red

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I feel embarrassed admitting I thought it would be an 0/3 haha.

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I’m not sure who to vote the other 2 in as, but I will most likely go with whoever has the most votes. My confidence is broken. Not that I should have any in the first place. I have not been posting a lot but I have been spending time reading a lot of the posts. I’m impressed with many of the breakdowns and arguments people make. I’m gonna be leaning on the experienced players in the end game.

VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: RedPandas

VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Pandas

Goose Spew

For objectivity’s sake, I have collected a basically complete list of all interactions between Goose and the slots in question below. (Not including interactions with me)

List+half-decent descriptions

votes ash+them sod1, pushes it (#30, #41, #203)
ask magnus about Ash (#223)
agrees with Badeline scumread (#225)
waffles on Ash (#276)
objects to possible town list containing them, badeline, lee & quail (#369, #380)
denies lee jail (#375)
votes ash/badeline/themself, then suspects DADV and one mafia in the wagons (#435)
essentially leads chomps/themself/fusion (#448, #453)
accepts Badeline’s townslip-based read of Lee, then says the slip wasn’t real (#488, #493)
pushes s!Ash over s!Badeline (#495)
suggest themself/Magnus/Ash (#511)
pushes back against Badeline’s dissatisfaction w/ d1 wagons (#544-545, #548)
switches to me/them/Magnus after leading different wagons for much of the day (#551)
————————————
Suggests Ash/Badeline & Lee/Quail as possibly in a 3/3 (#615)
says lee/spooky likely town if pandora/quail/prisma is 1/3 (#615, #728)
suggests Ash/Badeline/Fusion as 2/3 (#685)
prefers themself/me/Magnus over them/me/Spooky but says both likely town (#687-688)
slightly pushes back against town-spewed Ash but “doesn’t know” (#690)
claims them/me/Magnus wagon was denied by mafia (#725)
prefers themself in a wagon over me/spooky/Magnus (#727)
claims 2/3 in Ash/Pandora/Badeline (#769)
votes for Ash/Pandora/Prisma as 2/3 (#846)
says they’d rather vote them/me/spooky instead soon after (#849)
re-iterates t/s Ash/Badeline and s!Ash (#878)
mentions Quail as possible lowposter scum out of nowhere (#894)
townreads Lee but thinks townslip wasn’t real (#897, #903)
suspects exactly one mafia in Quail/Pandora/Prisma (#904)
rejects Badeline’s suggestion of Ash/Magnus/Me (#931)
suggests team is Ash/Fusion/one lowposter (#934, #935)
doesn’t vote Lee in a 3 lowposter jail (#935)
prods Quail for reads (#937)
sheeps Prisma/Lee/Badeline (#962) but thinks it’s a 1/3 (#995)
continues to push Ash/Fusion s/s (#1002)
says Magnus case on Badeline (and ash townread) suck (#1020)
shades fusion/ash for being ‘uniterested’ (#1031)
————————————
opens d3 by saying s/s them/Badeline is comically wrong (#1190) but is fine(?) with being voted together
Hard pushes back against badeline/them S/S (#1191-1192)
Pushes back against a 1/3 and doubts s!Fusion (#1194)
Townreads Lee, thinks chomps/fusion/prisma/badeline has 2 scum (obv) (#1195)
Votes themself/Badeline/Lee, says s!badeline if 1/3 (#1196), says prisma outted if 0/3 (#1197)
Suggests being jailed w/ Badeline and Lee/Prisma (#1242), votes accordingly (#1259)
Claims they’re confirmed if the above votes hits 1/3, unless they’re teamed with Lee (#1269)
Suggests chomps/prisma/ash or chomps/badeline/pandora as 3/3 (#1281)
Asks who thread thinks is scum if them/Badeline/Ash is 1/3, points out it’s the same wagons as D1 (#1351-1352)
Claims they tunneled Ash (#1356)
Sheeps Lee wagon at EoD (#1385), forgets lee/badeline contains max 1? (#1382)

To summarize what Goose’s agenda seems to have been;
Day 1 mostly consisted of multiple wagon swaps with seemingly little preference between them, with the notable exception of Ash/Badeline/them, which they claim later contained one scum in Ash/Badeline. It seems pretty clear that Goose didn’t really care which wagons went through, as long as it contained themself (see pushes of Ash/Magnus/them, Me/Magnus/them, and settling on Chomps/Fusion/them.) This suggests most of them were either unlikely to go through, or were 1/3.
Day 2 felt similar with the notable difference that they were hard pushing t/s Ash/Badeline, preferring Ash but leaving both as options. They claim the d1 wagon of me/them/Magnus was denied by mafia, proposes jailing pandora/quail/prisma and says lee/spooky are town if it hits 1/3, push back against a wagon of me/Magnus/Spooky by saying they would prefer themself to be in the wagon, suggest that Ash/Pandora/Badeline & Ash/Pandora/Prisma both likely hit 2/3, townread Lee the most out of the low-posters, votes Prisma/Lee/Badeline but thinks it’s 1/3, & pushes Ash/Fusion as s/s. Given they were basically universally townread and not believed to be the scum in the D1 1/3, most of this is likely an attempt to semi-control thread and push another 1/3 with not much at stake. It’s difficult to figure out what exactly is pairing from goose here, but most possible pairings make sense based on Goose’s votes alone, with the exception of Lee/Quail which would result in only their low poster wagons hitting 1/3. Ash/Badeline is unlikely, but still somewhat realistic.
Day 3 is different, as by around #1242 (?) they appear to have essentially given up and gone into antispew. They push back heavily against them & badeline being s/s, suggests jailing them with Badeline and one of Lee or Prisma, claiming they’d be confirmed town if the latter option hit 1/3. They end voting one person (Lee) at EoD. This day is even more difficult to glean the truth from, and unfortunately s!Badeline and s!Lee both make some sense. They suggest that them/badeline/ash will hit 1/3 and claim that they tunneled on ash, which suggests they were trying to push the wagons to something else. Theoretically this makes them/badeline/quail and them/badeline/ash more likely, but it can’t be ruled out that Goose may have been intentionally making it seem that way when it isn’t actually the pairs. This would, however, rely on Goose being confident the 3rd wagon slot would eventually move to whoever was scum in Lee/Ash, if there is scum within those two slots. Lee/Quail is again unlikely, as the EoD Lee wagon pretty much came out of nowhere and was 99% town-motivated.

The scum team is pretty certainly either Goose/Badeline/Quail or Goose/Lee/Ash fmpov

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I will make a case for the team. I have unfortunately been procrastinating it heavily.
if this throws for town I will accept the blame

actually no I don’t want to read through the same ISOs for the 6th time.
VOTE: Anonygoose VOTE: Badeline VOTE: Quail
I don’t need to convince anyone badeline is scum.
I find both slots somewhat towny on their own but Badeline/Quail is just so perfect to explain Goose’s votes that there’s no way this isn’t the team
Quail’s d3 votes are so sudden and out of character that the more that I think about it the more I feel like there is just no universe where it comes from town. I’m calling scum’s bluff on this.

Sucks that I’m being framed as the obvious third scum based on the most surface level analysis possible. I genuinely don’t understand how nobody besides me has been re-evaluating because of the d3 flip, it’s like I’m literally the only person bothering to solve the game anymore

If I’m wrong then fuck me ig

Quail had exclusively voted 0/3 wagons for the first two days, in the perception of them being evil (if Ash is evil, this is redundant). Quail was also relatively ecstatic to vote (in this hypothesis) three evil players, solidifying a majority nary an hour before EOD, which would lose the game, while Pandora was actively trying to lead a vote elsewhere.

Source

The only reason Quail wasn’t jailed at all was because Spooky and yourself changed your votes, thus leading the course for an unexpected overturn in the third led vote. Consider that Quail also townread all these slots, so there would’ve been an opening to not vote any of them or to push an alternative third slot as a saving grace. What do you make of that?

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I feel like most players voting Badeline and Anonygoose did so expecting them to flip evil, so it’s more confirmation than a shock to reel from.

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your disbelief at the idea that quail would vote 3/3 like that should explain exactly why scum would have them make that vote