Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[pandora]

@RedPandas

VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: pandora
VOTE: Badeline
2/3 if not 3/3

TMI

@RedPandas

T = Quail, Chomps, Ash, Goose, Magnus, Fusion
S = Prisma, Pandora, Badeline

VOTE: Prisma101
VOTE: pandora
VOTE: Badeline

more pls = Lee, Spooky

immediately suddenly reads goose as town

@Badeline

@RedPandas

T = Quail, Chomps, Ash, Goose, Magnus, Fusion

Before you claimed that of pandora/myself/goose, there were 2-3 wolves. What changed your read on goose to where you’d rather have prisma instead of them?

@RedPandas

@Badeline

Before you claimed that of pandora/myself/goose, there were 2-3 wolves. What changed your read on goose to where you’d rather have prisma instead of them?

I didn’t like prisma’s opening (#88, #91)
the original sr on goose was mostly based on #41, their later posts (i.e. #68, #76, #80) are better

@Badeline

What is it specifically that you don’t like about their opener?

@RedPandas

@RedPandas

ad reasoning to try and discredit earlygame votes and it doesn’t seem like a reaction town would have

I acknowledge the possibility that they are genuinely unfamiliar with RVS but it’s weird that they go from that to saying it’s not useful to vote SoD at all, rather than something like “don’t really get it but okay” which would be much more towny imo

@Badeline

Extremely solid reasoning, I was about to follow up questioning you about how you felt about their unfamiliarity and that’s now been covered. What did you notice with your other scumreads?

SOFTBALLS the first vote was AFTER these posts and who talks like this “extremely solid reasoning” “I was about to ask you but you already answered” it’s day 1 you are fabricating consensus

@Badeline

I really like red panda’s analysis of the game so far, so I townread them. I appreciate their willingness to communicate their thoughts instead of being combative to my questions. I also think them acknowledging that their reads aren’t based on much but choosing to push them anyway for content reads as a town player.

Red panda had a convincing case on Prisma, which you can see if you scroll up, so I’m inclined to scumread Prisma. I especially liked Panda’s follow up as to why their unfamiliarity with RVS doesn’t excuse them either.

this is such deep and extensive praise for some extremely surface level thoughts. people unfamiliar with strategy or that have different ideas of what strategy is optimal are so easy to frame

@Badeline

It doesn’t make them locktown in my eyes but its good enough for me for now.

Shooting for 0/3 here

VOTE: RedPandas
VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: LittleLee

Will probably change my mind on this later.

this is an interesting vote. here’s what the votecount was at the time:

Ash (5): pandora, Ash, FusionMoon314, Chomps, spookycat27
Badeline (5): pandora, spookycat27, Magnus, RedPandas, Badeline
Anonygoose (2): FusionMoon314, Anonygoose
FusionMoon314 (2): FusionMoon314, Magnus
Chomps (2): Chomps, Anonygoose
pandora (2): Magnus, RedPandas
RedPandas (2): Anonygoose, Badeline
spookycat27 (1): pandora
Prisma101 (1): RedPandas
LittleLee (1): Badeline

Not Voting (3): Quail, LittleLee, Prisma101

Pandas was ONLY being voted by the people we’re currently trying to link them with, which, to my confbias eye, sure looks a lot like early unpairing to me. 0 chance of them going over but interesting that Badeline didn’t immediately push for the 1/3, instead seemingly going into anti-spew against the 2/3 that looked relatively likely at the time

now we’re at a spot where there’s lots of talk about how 0/3 is the second best option and I need you guys to know that I wholeheartedly disagree and 0/3 is actually the most evil d1 option. 0/3 d1 into 0/3 d2 means a 3/6 d3 which is GREAT. BUT. a 2/3 means a 1/6 and a 1/3 means a 2/6. which are both evil numbers. And you’re statistically more likely to hit a 1/3 after a 0/3. 0/3 is actually a Bad Number just go for 3/3 and pray
1/3 is the WORST d1 option but 0/3 is the most EVIL d1 option. Please understand.

@Badeline

Town
Myself
You [Pandas]
Lee
Goose

awesome. I hate this post

@RedPandas

anything specifically for why you think goose is town?

@Badeline

I’ve liked and agreed with alot of their posts, they’re topposter with very little fluff posting, generally “good vibes” and I can follow their logic really well. For day 1 thats enough for me.

SOFTBALL

@Anonygoose

VOTE: Ash
VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Anonygoose

Ash (6): pandora, Ash, FusionMoon314, Chomps, spookycat27, Anonygoose
Badeline (6): pandora, spookycat27, RedPandas, Badeline, Magnus, Anonygoose
Anonygoose (2): FusionMoon314, Anonygoose
FusionMoon314 (2): FusionMoon314, Magnus
Prisma101 (2): RedPandas, Magnus
spookycat27 (1): pandora
Chomps (1): Chomps
pandora (1): RedPandas
RedPandas (1): Badeline
LittleLee (1): Badeline

Not Voting (3): Quail, LittleLee, Prisma101

Interesting. vote. after the consensus that ash and badeline were not w/w. except.

@Anonygoose

in a typical game where you hang people, if there is a wagon from start of day and then thread is super quiet with no effort to change it, it can point to the wagon being town as if they were mafia other mafia members would be prompting a switch. In this sense, i am applying it in terms of “mafia are happy with wagons as no one cares”. If this group was a 0/3 or 2/3 someone in the entire game would care.

You’re the one who cares

@Anonygoose

im just super uninterested in keeping this top 3 when most people’s votes aren’t explained on them and theres been no effort to change off them. think we’re obviously walking into a 1/3 for no reason.

And yet you didn’t change your vote

@Anonygoose

are you interested in sheeping me onto chomps/me/redpandas for a 0/3

however they suggest a 2/3 (in my world) redpandas vote

@Anonygoose

I’ll go

VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: FusionMoon314

actually.

And then don’t go through with it!

@RedPandas

working on it right now but something like goose/magnus/someone else to be determined

proposes a 1/3

@RedPandas

Eh. screw it. I’ll add myself
VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: Magnus
VOTE: RedPandas

There’s a vague tinfoil world in which Goose/Magnus are S/S so it’s possible this hits 2/3, but they’re both independently towny. Could hit 1/3 but it’s functionally a 1/2 and I’m much more inclined to believe S!Magnus in that situation than S!Goose. Most likely to be 0/3 though if my reads are correct enough.

an INTERESTING vote. VC:

Chomps (5): FusionMoon314, Quail, Anonygoose, Magnus, Chomps
FusionMoon314 (5): FusionMoon314, Quail, Anonygoose, Magnus, Chomps
Anonygoose (4): Anonygoose, Magnus, Chomps, RedPandas
Ash (3): pandora, Ash, spookycat27
Badeline (3): pandora, spookycat27, Badeline
RedPandas (2): Badeline, RedPandas
pandora (2): FusionMoon314, Quail
spookycat27 (1): pandora
LittleLee (1): Badeline
Magnus (1): RedPandas

Not Voting (2): LittleLee, Prisma101

Hedging for the 2/3 if it does go through but with zero chance of it actually happening atp

@LittleLee

VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: FusionMoon314
VOTE: Anonygoose

Adding to the majority. Personally, hoping for 0/3. The vote receivers don’t appear so desperate to deflect onto someone else. Some more so willing to be the wagon to prove their innocence. Whether we’ll have time to fully enact this strategy will be up in the air…

in the W!Lee world they DO vote for a 1/3.

@Badeline

The more votes these wagons get the less confident I am in them.

@Badeline

Don’t come crawling back to me when it’s 1/3.

TMI

@Badeline

VOTE: redpandas
VOTE: Anonygoose

I can settle for you two

VOTE: Badeline

lol

Anonygoose (6): RedPandas, Magnus, Chomps, LittleLee, Anonygoose, Badeline
Chomps (5): FusionMoon314, Quail, Magnus, Chomps, LittleLee
FusionMoon314 (5): FusionMoon314, Quail, Magnus, Chomps, LittleLee
Ash (3): pandora, Ash, spookycat27
Badeline (3): pandora, spookycat27, Badeline
RedPandas (3): RedPandas, Anonygoose, Badeline
Magnus (2): RedPandas, Anonygoose
pandora (2): FusionMoon314, Quail
spookycat27 (1): pandora

Not Voting (1): Prisma101

This format is GREAT, wolves get to hardcore distance while also saying they townread each other the whole time

@LittleLee

VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: redpandas

In a world where Lee is wolf I don’t know if Pandas is so this would be a 1/3 but it could also be a hardcore distancing 2/3

@RedPandas

not sure lee actually believes those slots are town tbh

such as

@Ash

VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Prisma
VOTE: Quail

Ash and Badeline are never wolf together so this is a 0/3 or an uninformed 1/3 which is not at all how any of the other wolf candidates have been voting. I don’t think it’s Ash.

@Badeline

VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: Fusionmoon314

I don’t like leaving things up to rand. I would love for these wagons to be different but I don’t think there’s enough people here who agree with me for that to work.

Badeline very publically locking in the 1/3

[pandora]

if it’s ash/badeline then congradulations on the tony award for some goddamn Theatre

[pandora]

but then I can say that for Badeline/Pandas/Goose who are together like half of D1

[pandora]

they just kept throwing each other softballs and fabricated consensus on each other so hard that they can’t look anything but alligned

[pandora]

Like in this world these three people really do keep proposing 2/3s over and over and over and over and then never end up settling on them

[pandora]

just keep townreading each other. One day it’ll work.

[pandora]

Idk maybe i’m wrong. I’m allowed to be extremely wrong, because I did math this game and nobody is talking to me

[LittleLee]

Goodness you’re so fast!

[Magnus]

@pandora

now we’re at a spot where there’s lots of talk about how 0/3 is the second best option and I need you guys to know that I wholeheartedly disagree and 0/3 is actually the most evil d1 option. 0/3 d1 into 0/3 d2 means a 3/6 d3 which is GREAT. BUT. a 2/3 means a 1/6 and a 1/3 means a 2/6. which are both evil numbers. And you’re statistically more likely to hit a 1/3 after a 0/3. 0/3 is actually a Bad Number just go for 3/3 and pray
1/3 is the WORST d1 option but 0/3 is the most EVIL d1 option. Please understand.

I’ll be marking this down as a reminder for any potential future Combinatorics setup. This was part of my motivation to avoid placing any of us known good players into early wagons, and as a member of the evil team you can most certainly imagine a 0/3 starting wagon as an ideal venture to start with because none of you have to be scrutinised yet. The analysis on follow-ups is worth its credence, thank you Pandora.

[pandora]

you guys see how fucking alligned they all look though if you discount all of the vanity votes and just look at their actual words

[LittleLee]

While it’s still a matter of opinion as to which strategy is optimal, I wouldn’t pin it on anyone as a sole reason to out them. Even if I do whole heartedly agree with your statistical analysis-

[LittleLee]

Right there with you, yes yes yes.

@pandora

Pandas was ONLY being voted by the people we’re currently trying to link them with, which, to my confbias eye, sure looks a lot like early unpairing to me. 0 chance of them going over but interesting that Badeline didn’t immediately push for the 1/3, instead seemingly going into anti-spew against the 2/3 that looked relatively likely at the time

Couldn’t phrase it much better, here, having gone over it extensively, myself.

[Magnus]

If you peruse the current vote count, it’s a complete secret so naturally everybody in the game has figured it out.
I don’t think anyone’s compiled a written comparison of their early actions in tandem, though. The softball commentaries, in particular; they had been pointlessly townreading each other with weak comments, in the sort of way that wouldn’t really resemble a frame. You aren’t losing your mind, don’t worry!

[pandora]

@pandora

you guys see how fucking alligned they all look though if you discount all of the vanity votes and just look at their actual words

It’s like i’m watching joe rogan the way they all mildly agree with each other and pretend that they have been convinced instead of believing the same thing from the start

[pandora]

The only other world i think is possible is lee/pandas it’s never ash or quail

[LittleLee]

VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: RedPandas

[pandora]

but it’s like 90/10

[LittleLee]

I am legally obligated to say no, regardless of what’s really true. Despite knowing full well that it isn’t.

[LittleLee]

As in no, I am not paired with Pandas.

[pandora]

I’m not changing my vote. I led this town here I’m going down with it. My tinfoil is rising a little bit but I’m going to mechanically stick to my guns and go to bed