Maybot's Combinatorics Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[RedPandas]

@Magnus

It’s a suboptimal action if players deliberate too long to change their mind on the wagons, resulting in your death through apathy anyway.

I know how EoDs work. Over an hour is more than enough time for a wagon to change, especially when it is only leading the 4th and 5th options by 2-3 votes.
Hell, it could happen in like 10 minutes if enough people were online.
It’s abundantly clear that if this is what Quail was going for with their vote, it worked almost immediately. Spooky and I both pointed it out as probably unpairing almost immediately, and both proposed counterwagons soon after that.

@LittleLee

This entire pin on Prisma feels underdeveloped. Not thinking of reasons why until asked.

no this is actually just bs. there is no way this is a townie thought

@pandora

Badeline and Pandas simply do not act so evil next time

I know you’re town but like there is basically no real arguments that I’m scummy besides my being indecisive d3 for very good reasons. I wasn’t consensus town 99% of the game for no reason lmfao

[RedPandas]

you’re so clearly confbiased here I don’t even know what to say other than that most of this just never considers a world where I’m town in the first place

[RedPandas]

I genuinely feel like you came up with that conclusion before you got the posts
how do you get “very little friendliness” from anything there besides ash’s interaction with badeline

[RedPandas]

you would not believe them

[RedPandas]

VOTE: Anonygoose VOTE: Littlelee VOTE: Ash much prefer to trust my gut on who actually seems scummy than try to fit certain slots to goose’s play as if I will be able to figure out exactly what they were going for

[RedPandas]

@LittleLee

Gotcha, gotcha. The blatant defenses of Pandas from Badeline recently, knowing what I know, sends sparks through my brain.

this is probably a scum slip, btw

[pandora]

@RedPandas

@LittleLee

Gotcha, gotcha. The blatant defenses of Pandas from Badeline recently, knowing what I know, sends sparks through my brain.

this is probably a scum slip, btw

how

[RedPandas]

@Magnus

Red’s heard rows of numerous insinuations today, and yet hasn’t acknowledged any of them.

this isn’t scummy

@Magnus

but they hadn’t really made villagery content post-D2

how is my d1 play actually different from my d2/d3 play besides blatantly fake confidence (which is still there d3 anyway)

@Magnus

Disagreeing with Pandora’s statistics “just because” as way of pushing certain ideals

I explained why exactly I disagreed with them when I first replied to it. it is not “just because”. don’t ignore the reasoning because you don’t like it or something

@Magnus

lacking early development on either Goose or Badeline

Goose, Badeline were literally within the first 3 reads I re-evaluated

@Magnus

waiting until D3 to effectively scumread either as a pair…

because I townread them? genuinely how do you think this is scummy? This is true for literally every single person in the game.

@Magnus

But the ultimate conclusion is “v!Panda should know better."

being wrong is not scummy

@LittleLee

Read on Pandora. Based on statistical results between wolf and town behavior and nothing else.

you’re saying this as if that’s a bad reason to scum read someone. It’s not.

@LittleLee

Anonygoose seems to be in agreement for this. Seemingly blindingly

not sure what exactly this is trying to imply tbh

@LittleLee

Displaying comfort in Anonygoose despite being here for the first time.

the fuck is this blatant confbias? ah yes I am paired with goose because I made a joke. town would never do that

@LittleLee

Acknowledges the possibility of a 2/3 pinning it on Magnus and Goose. Pins just on Magnus if just a 1/3. Clear bias displayed for Goose.

I wonder why. maybe it’s because I townread them or something. just a suggestion

@LittleLee

Guesses 1/3 in the pool of Goose, Chomps, and Fusion. Exactly 1/3. No higher.

You’re welcome

@pandora

TMI

lol, lmao even

@pandora

immediately suddenly reads goose as town

“suddenly” and then you immediately quote when I explain the exact reasoning why I did so and don’t comment further

@pandora

SOFTBALLS the first vote was AFTER these posts and who talks like this “extremely solid reasoning” “I was about to ask you but you already answered” it’s day 1 you are fabricating consensus

it’s be pretty objectively good reasoning? I genuinely do not know what you think you are seeing here besides just being confbiased.

@pandora

this is such deep and extensive praise for some extremely surface level thoughts. people unfamiliar with strategy or that have different ideas of what strategy is optimal are so easy to frame

I was the first person in the entire game to point it out how in the fucking world is this “surface level thoughts” fuck off

@pandora

0 chance of them going over

I was tied for 3rd…???

@pandora

instead seemingly going into anti-spew against the 2/3 that looked relatively likely at the time

nobody goes into antispew on day fucking one be serious

@pandora

TMI

lol lmao

@pandora

Ash and Badeline are never wolf together so this is a 0/3 or an uninformed 1/3 which is not at all how any of the other wolf candidates have been voting. I don’t think it’s Ash.

??? this is just blatantly not true

@pandora

you guys see how fucking alligned they all look though if you discount all of the vanity votes and just look at their actual words

you don’t quote any of my “actual words”

@pandora

it’s never ash or quail

you didn’t even look at quail did you

@LittleLee

I am legally obligated to say no, regardless of what’s really true. Despite knowing full well that it isn’t.

I like how lee slips here that he knows pandora is wrong and nobody notices

[RedPandas]

“knowing what I know” yet he shouldn’t know the pair if he’s town should he

[pandora]

@RedPandas

“knowing what I know” yet he shouldn’t know the pair if he’s town should he

okay but he’s reading you off of badeline, and if he’s town he knows that badeline is wolf

[pandora]

idk pandas is making me second guess myself and also i was a bit of an asshole last night. I’m still going down with the ship tho. gg wolfteam if you win i guess

[pandora]

rn pandas sort of reads to me like a scum who was caught for the “wrong” reason but they also could just be a town who’s genuinely mad so idk! idk

[RedPandas]

@LittleLee

Correct, yes. They’ll be far more focused on what their abilities are. Though I just misremembered the rules. Hooray!

@LittleLee

I see I see. Blipped on our objective for today for a moment-

@LittleLee

VOTE: Chomps
VOTE: FusionMoon314
VOTE: Anonygoose

Adding to the majority. Personally, hoping for 0/3. The vote receivers don’t appear so desperate to deflect onto someone else. Some more so willing to be the wagon to prove their innocence. Whether we’ll have time to fully enact this strategy will be up in the air…

@LittleLee

I’d argue it’s too early in the game to make reads like they’re certain. While I have my mild suspicions, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Even if 2 happen to be innocent, and goose willing to offer themself up.

@LittleLee

Fusion had the least amount of votes of the prior top 3, making you part of it by tie?

@LittleLee

w!Lee would have more than likely stated the assumption of the rules with a lot more conviction, knowing full well he was wrong. But proving oneself to be town is never that simple, I shouldn’t be trying to hide behind that one message, anyway.

@LittleLee

@Anonygoose

If magnus is town they can pick 2 townies. If mafia puts them in tough spot.

Also its dramatic and votes are stale rn

I might have exaggerated a bit. My bad.

@LittleLee

I’d happily vote myself to prove my innocence but according to pandora it’s simply not the time when shifting focus to accumulating wolves. And my lack of offering two others am near certain are town.

@LittleLee

It seemed to be the consensus they were the defacto wolf out of last nights imprisonment.
I’ll hold back jumping to Goose for now.

@LittleLee

Are we voting prisma based on trying to add to the number of wolves per round? And due to lack of defense and posts?

@LittleLee

Provides a cover for Ash, I believe. Hasty judgement on my end-

@LittleLee

From my memory/opinion, it was the immediate overplaying, stating claims right off the bat, no matter how miniscule. Personally, while wolves will usually opt for the opposite, it feels like a clear attempt to steer yourself out of that potential pool.

@LittleLee

VOTE: Badeline
Ensuring to be on the top of the vote. Wouldn’t fight it. Anticipating it’s them if it turns out to be 1/3

I see no point to add to Prisma’s count. Very little to go off of. Shockingly passive. Can relate. Can’t beat the consensus. Would be a lovely surprise if it was them after all.

Can’t fight my own votes against me, thanks, Magnus. It at least makes me certain it can be no higher than 2/3.

VOTE: Ash
I sense little connection to. Feels very flowing and with the grain, has hardly offered any substance.

VOTE: Magnus
Mild suspicion. Vote placed as a book mark to put under a bigger microscope later.

@LittleLee

From how you put it, directly anticipating the possibility of only a 1/3 is the perfect cover for the remaining wolf to fill in, as they are absolutely certain of it, on top of easily being agreed with. It’s a huge gamble on your end to be the first one to volunteer at all. Whether to keep anyone else that could be wolf from doing it first or the sake of being the noble one to step up ahead of everyone else.

Would also like to point out you along with Ash seemed to unquestionably assume Badeline was the wolf out of last night’s pool with no further displayed consideration for the other two. Someone who has historically been easy to pin as a wolf all game.

@LittleLee

Haven’t had much of a read on Quail, but with the perceived consensus being scumlean, it’d prove a little complicated if the current top 3 turns out to be 1/3.

@LittleLee

I feel like we should stick to the basic probabilities of who is who as opposed making assumptions as to who is working with who based on who hasn’t interacted with each other. Seems one dimensional. These groupings, I mean

@LittleLee

VOTE: Badeline
VOTE: Anonygoose
VOTE: Ash

Giving Ash enough to still be open for a potential swing at the last minute. I’d much rather have him up instead of Quail. I believe it’d clear both him and Anonygoose. Both wolves, or both town.

But for the current top 3,

If 1/3, Badeline’s the mafia or Anonygoos is using them as a shield.
If 2/3, it’s either Badeline and Quail, or Quail and Anonygoose.
If 3/3, we party at my place. Bring your own milk.

@LittleLee

The way they butt heads compared to Anon and feels far more… at each others’ heads compared to Anon and Ash. Anon vs Badeline I sense to be a lot less likely to be faked.

@LittleLee

My first instinct would to go for the paralyzed, low posters, Fusion and Prisma(Kanave)
Fusion’s reasonings are all hunches. I don’t recall a claim all on their own.

@LittleLee

Overall, had a splendid reaction, jumping out of my seat upon seeing the results last night. And equally enthralled there’s very little friction as to who of the two are the wolves.

@LittleLee

So essentially, or rather simply, one with the highest amount of control of said instincts is sure to do better, the better they know the game in and out. Impulsive players simply being the easiest to read. Or more interestingly, weaponized to their benefit under dire circumstances. Or at least when on the evil team. When good, you’d want to be as transparent and genuine as possible. Oh what a balance to strike…

@LittleLee

Combined with whatever the pools were, the disconnection might have been too disconnected. Seen as deliberate. Gambled and it paid off.

@LittleLee

Comfort as a whole or for their fellow teammates? Or more so a false comfort- We’ll so win regardless. Yes.

this slot just isn’t towny. what are people seeing here

[RedPandas]

he should be assuming badeline is in anti-spew but he does not seem to be

[pandora]

@RedPandas

this slot just isn’t towny. what are people seeing here

A more close allignment of badeline to the known wolf

[pandora]

who are you pairing with lee what’s your world

[pandora]

lee has barely talked to goose all game, badeline spent all of d1 hard alligning herself with them

[Badeline]

Or maybe I just townread them, like many other players in the game did at the time, and I was wrong. You can frame any specific action as scummy or towny.

[pandora]

@Badeline

Or maybe I just townread them, like many other players in the game did at the time, and I was wrong. You can frame any specific action as scummy or towny.

okay then actually make your case

[Badeline]

Why do I have to make a case. I’ve already explained why I don’t want to. I don’t plan on doing it.