Paradox Hazard - GAME OVER - MAFIA VICTORY!

[Hazardwaste]

that feels a bit messy but i can at least understand what your coming from

[catbae]

sorry for vanishing, i think i had too much coffee today lmao

gimme a few minutes to catch up

[Someone]

yea i think it makes sense

[catbae]

@Someone

@catbae should I vote like soonish or like right before EOD

i wanted ash to vote first but if he’s not going to do it then you can vote, idon’t want to put off my decisionmaking until the last minute

[Someone]

ok well

[Someone]

I do think ash is evil here I dont see any other way

[Someone]

Should I vote him

[catbae]

i’ll be upfront here and put my cards on the table: i think it’s bystander/ash, and not just becauseof mechanical reasons. bystander placing the vote on ash and then suggesting we vote hazard makes no sense from a town POV, and I feel like Ash has been refusing to commit to a solid stance at all with a vote, because I don’t think he wants to bus and is looking for a winnable ccross. This isn’t just solely based on today either - I think the way they’ve acted toward each other all game looks very partnered. I’ll case it in a bit.

I have a really really hard time seeing user Someone as mafia because of how his claim today came out and the reactions to figuring it all out - was such a ‘eureka’ moment, I know he can fake that stuff but if he did then hats off to him.

There’s a nonzero possibility it’s bys/hazard and bys calling hazard outed is meant to distance them and make me think they’re not s/s but that feels like the less likely world to me, i think the mechanics stack up more in his favor. i’ll do a double check of the ISO just to be sure but i think bys/ash is more likely

[catbae]

man i hate the pressure in these spots

[Someone]

same

[catbae]

if you’re ready to vote then go for it but don’t feel pressured by me into making a vote

[Someone]

I wont be here till like 30m before EOD (its possible I get out early but I dont want to risk it)

[Someone]

In my pov, it could be hazard/bystander, but eaves picking hazard and then 2 evil actions leads me to ash/bystander as the pairing

[Someone]

fuck it im going to do it cuz I dont see myself changing my viewpoint

[Someone]

VOTE: Ash

[catbae]

@bystander

wjhy is there two ashes pls

@Ash

We exist exclusively to mess with people and make their lives harder.

@bystander

ok tell me my alignment

@Ash

3P.

there’s a bit of early game banter, it’s flippant and not that significant. By itself this isn’t really damning at all, I could see it coming from either alignment, but it’s worth remembering this for context.

---

Ash follows this up with this read on bystander:

@Ash

Townlean on Bystander: her interactions with Tutuu seem sensible to me, given that I believe Chloe is town.

pretty vague, doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense - iirc bys had been pushing tutuu over his read for a bit. the conclusion feels like it’d a bit detached from the thread, the logic doesn’t connect together.

this is followed by this defense of bys to ash4fun:

@Ash

I think the Bystander ISO isn’t too awful?
The annoyance with it is that you have to read it in the context of the larger conversation, which kinda defeats the point of an ISO, but it’s not too awful. File it away as multitasking with another ISO.

again, there’s basically no substance at all to why Ash is townreading bystander. it’s just “iso not too awful” and “have to read it in the context” but none of that full explains why he actually has this read

[catbae]

@Ash

Catbae’s got a good post on Someone claiming RB, Hazard’s pointed out how them claiming investigative contradicts with their lax attitude toward dying on D1, and much of their posting has been weird: #1336 is incredibly off, as Cat notes; and the trio of #1207, #1231, and #1232 seem to be trying to either clear Marluna under v!Ash → v!Marluna or to sack Marluna and use it as an excuse to kill me.

going back knowing flips this is pretty wolfy

he’s been shading Marluna all game but opts to vote user Someone instead

[Someone]

@catbae

he’s been shading Marluna all game but opts to vote user Someone instead

Yea it was like the first thing that stood out to me cuz like it looks like he was getting points while not actually doing what he was saying

[Someone]

@Someone

Ash/Marluna is weird tho idk how to feel about it, feels almost like both of them want credit for susing/being sused the other one but neither want to vote each other.

right here yea

[catbae]

@Ash

Drunk Bystander. Fun.

nothing post, not attempting to read bystander’s alignment.

---

@bystander

ash id there any other change on ur rea don me

bc it frels really stagnant in the way that it shoyld change, whether to be a stronger townread or weaker/ wolfread since ive def changed how ice been playing a lot

@Ash

No?
I still think you have a non-zero chance of being mafia but are probably town.
Still the same townread that I’ve had on you the entire game.

@Ash

You don’t feel like you’ve reinvented yourself or something. You just…seem to be as you’ve always been: messing around, trying to help at moments and tossing it to the wind at others.

@bystander

can u tell me why youve held onto this belief despite many consensus town people havibg the oppsite opinion. what makes ur read strong enough to hold through that much controversy lol. like its been consistently there for what

@Ash

Just…vibes.
I’m projecting a QBCord person’s personality onto you, and under that lens, you make more sense to me.

@bystander

you’ve never displayed doubt in that read throughout the whole game its unrealistic

@bystander

i dont really think your reason is great either

@bystander

okay. why have u not tried to influence others with this read if its strong enough for you to keep consistently have like this. it kinda feels like it hanging on to it just cuz

@Ash

Have I not? I’ve definitely pushed that you’re likely town.
I feel comfortable making the assumption that you’re town, and I haven’t really had a moment that makes me doubt that townread, but I feel like the game so far has established that I am not great at influencing people.

@bystander

your lack of doubt or paranoia is concerning to me

it feels kinda like tmi

@Ash

But seriously, I just…don’t think you’re mafia. Any minor suspicions I have on your alignment are far outweighed by the ones I have on Eaves, Someone, and Leafia. It’d take two of those being wrong for me to reevaluate, and I’d like to believe that we won’t get that far.

this whole exchange is…the most substantial conversation between them so far and it just reads like textbook distancing to me - bystander expresses paranoia with her read but never goes anywhere with it, Ash has nothing to back it up with, just keeps repeating he doesn’t think she’s mafia, and then it never goes anywhere.

It doesn’t really feel at any point like either of them is trying to solve the other.