Paradox Hazard - GAME OVER - MAFIA VICTORY!

Okay! Time to backread. Have been busy but for my understanding what is POE? So I can get a better understanding of certain conversation and reads without losing it’s meaning half way through.

POE is Process of Elimination; If you know 50% of the players are town, then the other 50% must contain the wolves.

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Okay besties. I think I got the jists of what’s going on and I don’t know how to add onto it. So I’m going to be talking about more mech talk ish and possible things we could do going into the future because that’s my specialty of playing social deductions games. Putting the deductions in the name. First thing I got to bring up is the Paradoz Hazards that will happen probably. Will we say if we got into one or keep that secret.

A benefit of saying is to guage the amount of ammo the mafia might have plus it might shed some light on pairs of people that should be agreeing with others stories. But the downside of that is that mafia knows we were in one and that two roles don’t match up and it’s easier to guess and it’s a guess they might land easier if they go that route.

But a reason to not say it earlier is to have stories that people can’t back out of and making them much more airtight though. But the thing is the dead can’t speak and we don’t know if they are in the paradox or mafia might be claiming to be in it. But besides of possible fake claims people could pick up if we don’t claim frame one but it makes it harder for mafia to guess roles meaning they are much less informed about us as a whole but at the same time we don’t have much info besides social reads and tells we do to suggest what we have if we have them.

Holy shit I could have typed that in one message.

Since thread is mostly dead (P.S. except for memeking), I guess I’ll make a readslist for how I feel rn

tutuu - pure villager energy
Chloe - very natural solving questions and reads

catbae - mostly same vibes as chloe, just less of it
eaves - Also quite solvery, I find myself agreeing with them a lot, except on bystander
Memekingpizza - I agree on the lost townie read of him. Doesn’t really seem like a lot of coaching going on.

Leafia - I think the mech was not +town, but I don’t really hate anything else. If nothing else good, it did get the day going. Also I’m inclined to sheep others’ trs of her.

Someone - nothing to see here
Marluna - or here

Frostwolf103 - nothing here imo, but apparently that’s meta >rand wolf?

nobody in this tier

Hazardwaste - their interaction with chloe felt defensive. Plausibly, but providing no evidence for them, being town.
Ash - Also a whole lot of nothing, but everything is agressivly wolfy
bystander - Just a whole lot of defensiveness and just feeling like a wolf pov

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If you dont mind me asking.

Why is Memekingpizza look better than Marluna?

I don’t think that claiming paradox hazards will help town much at all. Knowing when the mafia have an extra vig shot doesn’t really help. They should definitely be revealed with the claims which usually happen by wagons at EoD, but besides that they really only narrow down people’s roles. E.g. informative roles will basically never have a paradox hazard, while rb’ers might.

My vote is no, at least until we are confident we can mechsolve the game (even when we are confident, experience says we probably can’t)

I think it was tutuu who first mentioned it, but they seem to clearly be a new player, at least to this format, and are energetic (if less skilled, no offense pls) about solving the game

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I feel better about Chloe, the impatience to solve the game feels genuine to me. That thing isn’t easy to fake as wolf, when it’s backed up with like a sufficient amount of substance in her posts which I think she has

I saw him wolf in Undertale Overhaul, in Stellaris, and I swear there was one more game but there might not be

And I know that at least getting into D2, excessive mechtalk compared to social play is typically >rand wolf. But in this case it’s publicly acknowledged as his strong suit (though I would encourage him to branch out; even if your reads are bad, as long as they’re explained we can help), whereas wolves typically don’t acknowliedge this and use mech to bolster their presence without contributing socially, because it’s easier.

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Apology not accepted, poke a slanking player who’s got busy in the weekend and this happens.

Also why am I not voted by lot more? Are the mafia afraid you’re baiting them?

I wouldn’t say confidence is the accurate word. I think of it as an attempt. I’m not confident I’m correct, I’m just trying

The opposite of confident is let’s say … afraid? I’m not afraid of making a wrong guess. I don’t think getting so hung up on making a wrong guess makes sense, it’s an unnecessary negative emotion. I would only feel bad if I actually like push somebody and they die and they flip town. But just throwing out guesses is a very unemotional act, I don’t think confidence plays any part

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Alright, let me rephrase. What context are you referring to, that you say tutuu is ignoring?

I think it’s more likely for Hazard to be town than to be a wolf

This doesn’t feel like a lie to me, and a wolf sharing about wanting to have mental break over getting suspected is less likely than a town in my opinion. It does depend on the person but generally it’s towny in my opinion. Hazard was never calm about getting suspected as town. I’ve seen him wolf only once and I thought he handled it pretty well, he endgamed. He handled pressure well that game

Town Hazard does get suspected every game, it is true

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You’re literally the only non-singleton wagon atm

Although, I would like to know your thoughts on bystander’s alignment. Several people in my towncore tr them, but I do not. I’d like to hear your angle. If you need time to iso/backread, that’s fine.

Yeah, it’s a bad phenomenom for us Europiens. We still have it better than the few Australiens.

Most (active) people of this site are American, I think.

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I could be confirmation biased but here’s what I’m thinking

Frostwolf would be town and if he is then he is

Frostwolf could be wolf, and he read my post about him, and decided to do exactly what I said I expect town him to do

This is why I shouldn’t have immediately posted that read so fast, I should have waited

Because now I have to decide if I’m confirmation biasing that he is being a bit theatrical to play up to what I shared I want of him in order to townread him

I don’t think town frostwolf is illogical. I do think he’s a good player. He carried a few games. I didn’t share it in the post, but I also do expect town frost to throw out some good reads and solve! :stuck_out_tongue:

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