Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[Lemonfairy]

I screwed up EOD and I take full responsibility aaaAAAaaa

[Lemonfairy]

I have no confidence in my reads anymore and might just sheep Arctic

[Vulgard]

I don’t think we ever got the chance to realtime before in this game, hello!!

[Lemonfairy]

yeah, probably because I can’t play this early on weekdays
(also hi)

what team(s) do you think is(are) most likely rn?
are you scum?

do you still townread me?

[Nokiel]

I did check the forum again, I have consistently popped in and out throughout the game just trying to keep up with what’s going on.

[Arctic]

@May

With less than 12 hours left in the day, I think I’ve gotta decide who I actually want executed by the end of things.

In any other game, my immediate thought would be that Kanave’s a bad D2 execution, because her doesn’t lead us to a good understanding of the gamestate, but with only two wolves… I’m not sure we entirely need to worry about that? It’s not gonna be a situation where two pivotal villager flips build a good web.

The thing that gives me pause about the Kanave wagon is the way that very few people have placed votes so far. It feels like the wolves are happy to let her execution proceed, I think? But it could also be that they don’t want to look like they’re contesting the wagon in the case that it does go over, which they’d see as likely… Dunno. Not sure. I can’t find my footing on any strong opinions today, probably because I am doing the D2 thing again. I need more practice with this.

i don’t think this is w/w

the whole post is framed around kanave being a villager without explicitly stating it - look at the bolded and the middle paragraph in in particular

[Vulgard]

@May

@Vulgard

you literally just pushed eliza for the same thing, in the same timeframe, for almost exactly the same reason, as town in the previous game you played with her

this is obviously a fake push but you didn’t even try to make this look good smh

Yes! I did this on purpose. Making the exact same push with a lot of the exact same people in thread gives me a really easy point of comparison for reactions, because it’s literally one-to-one.

Unfortunately, I can’t compare Lemon’s reaction, since she was late to the thread in B&F, but Arctic’s initially seemed pretty different to me - he seemed to take my read more seriously than he did as a wolf, rather than immediately realize it was a reaction test. Then… he put in that little addendum about realizing it, which kinda deleted my read. I have more to say about this but I’m getting really motion sick so I have to put down my phone now ok bye

@May

Arctic is town until proven otherwise, Vulgard is probably town, Lemon is probably town <— Reads I would give at first instinct.

@May

Lemon’s play this time around feels super similar to what I’ve seen from her in previous games - she asks a lot of questions, engages with people, pokes at things, in a way that just… doesn’t feel like it has any agenda behind it. It’s not a hard read, nothing is at this stage, but given the current gamestate, my first instinct is always going to be to look at the slots that don’t want to engage with people and provide content.

@May

Arctic
Lemon & Vulgard
Nokiel & Whisper
Jar & Kanave
beancat & Eliza
Aelin

@May

If there’s a wolf being voted, obviously that changes, and I think the last-minute Aelin votes (so you and Eliza) would be more suspect, as would Jar’s lack of a vote.

@May

I think that if Kanave is a wolf, the other one doesn’t feel particularly confident in their leverage right now, which is why we haven’t seen a major push on another player, so not someone like Vulgard or Lemon. I also don’t believe that Kanave’s potential partner would be beancat, since they ended D1 as the only two players on the same wagon, which leaves Arctic, Nokiel, Jar, and Eliza as partners who would create this sort of gamestate with w!Kanave. That’s a decently narrow pool, and I think I could look more into individual actions if I wanted, but I don’t want to dedicate myself exclusively to this one world.

@May

Lemon’s been townie all game and had absolutely no motivation to argue so hard for Kanave’s execution as scum unless she’s wolf with Nokiel and was trying to funnel all counterwagon energy toward Kanave instead. If Nokiel is V then Lemon is probably town.

@May

Yeah, but I think that Vulgard is the most likely to be paired with someone outside Nokiel/Kanave, which is what I’m saying. I don’t think Lemon and Vulgard are W/W (or maybe I just hope they’re not), and I think you’re town.

@May

I don’t think Lemon is entirely clear , but I think the worlds where she’s wolf most likely include one of our two suspects here, and therefore aren’t an instalose if we end up voting them both out.

@May

Yeah, I agree with everything you’re saying here, though I don’t think Jar was a bad choice regardless, since I don’t think any of us were wolfreading him. It’s still a shake-up, though, and something I should probably be reading more into than I currently am - my immediate instinct was that Lemon would be wolf read for that EoD and so I didn’t think of her as a poison target, but the fact that that’s not happened means I should prooobably re-evaluate.

@May

I agree w/ this - I don’t entirely discount the possibility that Lemon is a wolf, but I think she’d only potentially be with Nokiel, and I think we can cross that bridge when it comes. For now, I don’t think killing Kanave gives us a winning PoE unless we’re certain she’s a wolf, and I’m not.

@May

I don’t want to admit that it could be Lemon and Vulgard because then I got completely owned at the start of the game :(

This feels somewhat similar to the Kanave thing but I see the bolded parts as TMI on Lemon being town if I read these posts from the POV of May being a wolf.

[Arctic]

@May

Alright, I’m back from epic failing an awesome exam (this is hopefully hyperbole), and I think it’s time to start epic failing an awesome mafia game.

My thoughts are super disorganized right now, so I think it’s time to put them into some folders.

I think that if Kanave is a wolf, the other one doesn’t feel particularly confident in their leverage right now, which is why we haven’t seen a major push on another player, so not someone like Vulgard or Lemon. I also don’t believe that Kanave’s potential partner would be beancat, since they ended D1 as the only two players on the same wagon, which leaves Arctic, Nokiel, Jar, and Eliza as partners who would create this sort of gamestate with w!Kanave. That’s a decently narrow pool, and I think I could look more into individual actions if I wanted, but I don’t want to dedicate myself exclusively to this one world.

Next world - v!Kanave. In this case, I’m not sure

^ Okay I wasn’t gonna hit send on this but I think it’s really funny that I started typing this second paragraph, paused at “I’m not sure”, and proceeded to be completely unable to come to a conclusion what I wasn’t sure about. For half an hour. I’m going to go take a break from mafia because it turns out I am actually very much not sure

in my opinion this was the weirdest post about kanave from may because i don’t know why she decided to solve the game from preflipping kanave as both wolf and town while 0 people were voting them

and i don’t know if i should be concerned about the fact that she literally just gave up talking about the v kanave world completely

[Lemonfairy]

am sorry

I thought Eliza/Vul was more likely than Nokiel/Kanave or Kanave/Eliza and Kanave’s posts were getting kinda towny too and we kept getting stale EODs that led to villager misyeets so I thought Eliza was more likely a hit but apparently not and now we’re here and idk

[Arctic]

but you said you thought eliza/vulgard probably weren’t w/w

[Arctic]

wtf is this post
are you trying to make you two look w/w

[Lemonfairy]

I did
and then I changed my mind

[Vulgard]

No, it’s just the truth lol.

[Vulgard]

@Lemonfairy

yeah, probably because I can’t play this early on weekdays
(also hi)

what team(s) do you think is(are) most likely rn?
are you scum?

do you still townread me?

I don’t know.
No.
Reconsidering.

[Lemonfairy]

I’m debating between live commenting or going back and commenting
it’s rare I get to interact live so I might do that but I need to read

[Arctic]

what was towny about kanave’s posts at that eod and why did you also decide nokiel was town

[Vulgard]

Fyi, I was asking May about how they’ve been writing their posts because I thought this part was a SHROOP.

@May

I don’t have much experience with Arctic - we have one proper game played together, and he was a wolf in that one, but from what I’ve seen, he’s a very confident as scum, and rightfully so. The fact that the wolfteam he led had zero fear came across in the general gamestate to me before I even knew he specifically was a wolf. His opening posts in that game were, again, very confident:

It feels kinda pointless to edit and re-type this when either phrasing would’ve worked fine and not been TMI-ish, but it still pinged me and I wanted to explore it.

[Vulgard]

I think Arctic probably isn’t a wolf.

[Arctic]

i felt like nokiel shroop’ed earlier too but i don’t know if i can be bothered to find the post

[Vulgard]

@Arctic

i don’t think this is w/w

the whole post is framed around kanave being a villager without explicitly stating it - look at the bolded and the middle paragraph in in particular

The middle paragraph to me just straight up makes no sense, so I don’t know how to read into it. The third paragraph pinged me a lot.