Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[Lemonfairy]

posts I thought were towny from Kanave near EOD

@Kanave

Town
May,
(gap)
Arctic
Null - Lemon
Vulgard (At this point i think we likely have a wolf miscleared, this is the mostly likely culprit bc of the stuff between them and Eliza)
Noki
Eliza

@Kanave

May i’ve just had town most of the game, and stuff like the Eliza/vul case they’ve never bother with as wolf here they’d just coast
Arctic though im getting myself annoyed at them (you’re not doing anything wrong im just in a bad mood before this game and its been seeping through >.<) their solving feels more genuine that Vulgard. The thing that gives me apprehension on them is how they’ve been second guessing themselves but not changing their vote but town as a whole has kinda been doing that so shrug;
you’re null
Vulgard is moreso in the scum corner bc i have a feeling we’ve likely miscleared someone and I don’t think its May or Arctic. It might be you but i dont have anything on you, and i liked the Vul/Eliza case+Arctics pushback here

@Arctic

because i’ve seen no indication from you that you actually take any issue with what i’ve been saying so this honestly feels obligatory rather than genuine

Noki has been slipping up but done nothing worth TRing them over
Eliza i already posted my case for

@Kanave

Idk if Eliza/Noki wins the game, but im fairly certain it doesn’t lose us the game so long as after it happens if one of them flips wolf it doesn’t immedietely go onto me in lylo; I’d slighjtly prefer Eliza but im voting Noki rn because ties bad

@Kanave

May posted a Vul.Eliza case

@Kanave

@Lemonfairy

@Kanave

ugh i dont like how static this day has been, doesn’t feel like a lot has changed beyond people considering Vulgard more. ig if this flips wolf we’ll be a step closer to winning and if it flips scum we can probably just exe Eliza/vulgard but it still just feels like we’re just sitting here letting the game happen

[Arctic]

okay but what is villagery about any of this

@Kanave

Noki has been slipping up but done nothing worth TRing them over

and actually what does this even mean

[Lemonfairy]

expanding on those

the reads list - point on Arctic I kind of mindmelded with (solving felt more genuine and driven than Vul)
reason for SRing Nokiel is also not as terrible as I remembered and also kind of aligns with what I was thinking

regarding the Eliza/Nokiel post, I kind of commented on it already
thought Kanave and Eliza had more partner potential together but Kanave saying they preferred Eliza over Nokiel and then actually voting Eliza breaks this world

and then Kanave brought up May’s Vul/Eliza case and pinged me to make sure I read it

idk it just felt like they were prioritizing solving over self-pres

[Arctic]

so who are the wolves and what are your thoughts on today’s posts

[Lemonfairy]

@Arctic

lol it probably is lemonfairy and vulgard

[Vulgard]

I feel like it’s Kanave/May or Nokiel +1. I don’t think May is with Lemon (as just explained) or with Nokiel (also as just explained). I don’t think Lemonfairy is with Kanave (as just explained) or with May (as explained through May).

It can be Nokiel/Lemon or Nokiel/Kanave. Or, well, as I just said, Kanave/May.

Nokiel on Kanave

@Nokiel

For now I’m waiting on Beancat’s activity they promised at the start of the game. But Kanave has been lowposting all game and I would like to apply some pressure to take part in discussion for a basis to work on.
VOTE: Kanave

@Nokiel

Honestly, rn your slot is the one I’m not thinking about much. I’m more curious about Kanave and Bean. But with what Vul outlined I am unsure if I want to pursue Bean, and Eliza is someone I’ve been on most of the game

@Nokiel

Kanave - Null, Lack of content, waiting for some content.

@Nokiel

Kanave is a slot that I also found off, but after just now reviewing ISO, I feel like it’s just the lowposting and D1 that has me finding them off.

@Nokiel

My town right now contains everyone except Kanave, Eliza and Vul.

Kanave is the one I Scumread most, Eliza is Scumlean and Vul is more nulltown/null.

VOTE: Kanave

Veeeeeeeery quick jump overnight.

@Nokiel

So, Kanave has had minimal activity early in the game and then a big revival where everything is supposed to get better, which I do not trust. I’m forgetting why I sus Kanave, it might just be because they sus me.

I think I’m hopping on Kanave because of Lemon’s suspicion…

Bolded feels not W/W with Lemon solely because Nokiel is fairly new to the game and I don’t think this sort of thing is in most newbwolves’ wheelhouse.

@Nokiel

Kanave’s ISO looks like they haven’t really had interactions with others, rather responses and comments on others, which feels very lone wolfy, which means I can’t really find a pairing here with Kanave and someone else.

@Nokiel

God, I’m TRing Kanave because I can’t find a scumpartner that isn’t me, knowing I’m town. This feels weird.

What the hell is the bolded. Also, another jump here. Was D3 just a distance?

Yeah, I think Nokiel’s read on Kanave is super unnatural/opportunistic. Hard null day 1, town day 2, wolfread and push day 3, town again day 4.

Kanave on Nokiel

@Kanave

@Nokiel

Ok, gimme a minute.

this entire post is super hedgy, and kinda incongruent with itself. Like it answers the questions without actually taking a real poisition on any of them

Worth noting that Kanave legitimately didn’t even mention Nokiel before this post. This is when Kanave is being pressured to finally give reads.

@Nokiel

I’m worried about taking a position right now, because I feel like my thoughts don’t give me enough material to make any decisions about people. I have some townreads and leans, but I’m mostly unsure who I scumread. I don’t want to scumread someone unless I’m sure of my read and actually believe it.

@Kanave

@Nokiel

I’m still unsure about Bean, but less sure than at the VC. I think it’s not unlikely that all wagons were villagers

could just be poor wording but “not unlikely that all wagons were villagers” is just dodging the question, they’re not taking a hard stance at all.

@Kanave

@Nokiel

3. name 2 people who you think are wolves based on previous answer

I’m unsure. I feel like I can’t find a pairing where interactions are odd (haven’t looked at the thread with this perspective yet).

and here again, they don’t actually take a stance on anything, they’re just trying to answer the questions without doing anything that could get them pegged as a wolf

Sorta just ignores Nokiel’s realtime posting at the time.

@Kanave

I’d def lean that way; its possible to read them as a towny who is really lacking confidence but at this point i’d rather them actually make a position, if they have thoughts why wouldn’t they be sharing them

Okay I guess?

@Kanave

Nokiel still hasn’t taken any hard stances

Kanave is legitimately just ignoring Nokiel here.

@Kanave

@Nokiel

Another general flag I got from the old format, which I’m wondering if it’s very applicable off of what others have said is that very decisive pushes are generally people trying to abuse the knee-jerk habit of sheeping in order to win as wolf. But from what I’ve gathered, this barely applies here?

I find this interesting given how Nokiel has been playing all game, she said pretty early on that Decisive pushes are generally wolfy and has indecisive all game, feels like shes playing into the meta that she herself is calling towny

This is starting to feel like TMI.

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel
general hedginess

Here…

@Kanave

VOTE: Kanave

??? Is this Kanave self-voting because she realizes Nokiel might actually die if Arctic switches?

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

Puts it back when it’s too late for anyone to do anything. Even messes it up the first time.

You had this person as your wolfread consistently throughout day 2. What are you doing.

@Kanave

@Arctic

if you guys are town you need to show it today

pinging me with this like i didn’t literally post more in the 12h after saying id start postingthan the entire rest of the game while you acted like that was fake the whole day is really nagl

??

@Kanave

@Nokiel

I don’t think I’m changing my mind on the ones I TR, most of them seem like they’re too focused on solving to wolfread (pushing the game faster than I think a wolf would be comfortable).

Seeing as most of them are solving into you, and have gotten 2 misexes, it doesn’t give you any pause that the solves are leading to townies dying?

Mhh.

@Kanave

holy shit you did not just actually take me self-voting then revoting noki (the first time with a typo) and paste it in here to make it look like i’ve been interacting with them more than i have, what the fuck is that

Kanave not with Lemon again, also this again feels like TMI of Noki being a wolf lol.

@Kanave

VOTE: Nokiel

Okay I guess?

@Kanave

@Arctic

secondly, this would be cool and all if it weren’t for the fact that your main suspect is nokiel, who is also a low poster

Are you implying im voting them bc they’re low posting? because thats not at all what ive been saying

Kanave consistently wolfreads Nokiel all the time. Aaaaaallllll the time. But at EoD2 she literally self-votes instead of voting there and only revotes when it’s impossible for anyone to switch. And at EoD3 when Nokiel could’ve died again she instead switches to Eliza on this reasoning:

@Kanave

ugh i dont like how static this day has been, doesn’t feel like a lot has changed beyond people considering Vulgard more. ig if this flips wolf we’ll be a step closer to winning and if it flips scum we can probably just exe Eliza/vulgard but it still just feels like we’re just sitting here letting the game happen

@Kanave

if she flips scum then i think we’re in a really good spot where we just go into Vulgard/Noki and win

@Kanave

is noki vulgard a viable world

@Kanave

VOTE: ElizaThePsycho

@Kanave

I think if this flips town we all need to really reval the rest of town, cause the only world left at that point from most peoples pov is me and Noki which i obv know loses the game

You are the top Nokiel wolfreading and you want to switch based on the day being static? Nokiel is top wagon, you should be happy…

Then Kanave says she wants to chain into Eliza (confirmed V) and me (I know I’m V) if Nokiel flips wolf…

Then she says if Eliza flips scum we should go into me (V) and Nokiel, but only if Eliza flips scum…

Then suggests Nokiel/Vulgard as a viable world… just in case Nokiel does go over? To get me killed the next day? (I’m sitting on Kanave here)

Then votes Eliza and says Kanave/Nokiel loses the game. No, it does not, you’ve been thinking Nokiel is mafia, you just kill Nokiel and point to the fact you pushed them.

Yes, we do re-eval the town, but this post makes it seem like Nokiel/Kanave is inherently a bad PoE… when Nokiel is someone Kanave herself has floated as a wolf numerous times. It just feels manipulative.

I need extra pairs of eyes on this.

[Vulgard]

When reading Kanave’s posts about Nokiel, I thought she was trying to get Nokiel MLed, but later I noticed a pattern that makes me think it’s actually hard distancing / maybe bussing. The one time she talks to Nokiel directly, it’s her writing a post that’ll make her look better if Nokiel flips mafia. She writes a lot of posts about Nokiel being wolfy and a wolf but both times she she has the chance to kill them at EoD and doesn’t.

[Host_Account_1]

Not Voting (6): Vulgard, Arctic, Kanave, Lemonfairy, May, Nokiel

Majority is 4. Day ends 2022-12-05T04:00:00Z

[Lemonfairy]

I have absolutely no idea (ok, I have some idea but I want to explore all the worlds since it might be mylo? lylo? I forgot)

you’re poison cleared

full list of worlds are:
Nokiel/Kanave
Nokiel/Vul
Nokiel/May
Kanave/Vul
Kanave/May
Vul/May (which would honestly be so scary)

[May]

I think I need to stop letting my thoughts lead me around as I am doing now, because it allows my attention to be drawn to the wrong places. It’s what had me refuse to consider Lemon/Vulgard early in the day. I need to step back and measure all of the possibilities, rather than just bouncing around and letting myself be blinded to certain angles.

It’s between Kanave/Lemon/Nokiel/Vulgard. That means the potential wolfteams are as follows:

Kanave/Lemon - Lemon tried very hard to get Kanave killed at EoD2 in a way that was just completely unnecessary as a wolf. It was early enough in the game that I’m happy to discount this possibility for now unless someone flips.

Kanave/Nokiel - In this case, the wolves are intentionally allowing high-posters to tear each other apart and killing the lower-posting players. For a little while, I thought this was unlikely, given Kanave helped vote off Eliza, whose flip would direct a lot of people toward voting Nokiel… but I, uh, just remembered who Eliza was a counterwagon to. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that proves this, and I’m not sure I’ve seen anything that really disproves it. I wish we’d executed Nokiel yesterday.

Kanave/Vulgard - I’m not sure Vulgard would bus this much, but maybe? That would mean his behavior today would be trying to connect me with Kanave and get me voted out first, as he did in GOAT^2. Looking back, he bounced back and forth on Kanave a bit, rather than “tunneling her all game” as he said. It’s not something I’ve thought about and evaluated at all, but that’s the purpose of this exercise, I suppose.

Lemon/Nokiel - This would explain why Lemon went so hard for Kanave on D2 and then Eliza D3 - trying to avoid a Nokiel vote. The way they’ve both left thread to its own devices would make sense for wolves, I think - as soon as we moved away from Nokiel, she kinda disappears, and Lemon doesn’t show up until later. It’d make sense with Nokiel’s Vulgard/Lemon case, too.

Lemon/Vulgard - The tinfoil case. I just… failed to consider it when I was first coming into thread, which is embarrassing, but how thread has been progressing today feels like it reinforces this world as what’s real… though I don’t know if it’s confbias. I think I was largely ignoring it out of convenience, because this is the inconvenient world, and I would love for it to go away please.

Nokiel/Vulgard - During the night phase, I had some notes on why this was possible - it was in my consideration, hence why I said all my potential wolfteams contained Nokiel - and I don’t really think it’s impossible. I just haven’t seen any particular evidence for it, I think? I really need to analyze this more, but I’m at the bottom of this list and I really have a million other things I should be doing.

I have been neglecting every single one of my actual responsibilities this entire game to play Splatoon and mafia. I should not be in thread right now. I’m going to go get some work done, ping me if you need me or have any questions.

[May]

Do I get to say “townie mindmeld” now? Is that my line?

[Lemonfairy]

why is yours so much more detailed
I feel overshadowed

[Arctic]

@Vulgard

Then votes Eliza and says Kanave/Nokiel loses the game. No, it does not, you’ve been thinking Nokiel is mafia, you just kill Nokiel and point to the fact you pushed them.

she was saying if people just killed her and nokiel then we would lose (which is true even if just one of them is town

everything else is fine i guess
i mostly think it’s either this or you and lemon so shrug

[May]

Get owned

[Lemonfairy]

[Vulgard]

Noting that Nokiel actually starts pushing on Kanave when Kanave pushes them on day 3, but come today, Nokiel’s townreading Kanave as if nothing happened. And yesterday, Kanave didn’t argue to vote out Nokiel when it mattered, despite actually having the chance to kill Nokiel. In fact, she argued in Nokiel’s defense in a roundabout way and randomly punted Eliza.

This is why I need an extra pair of eyes, it just feels like they’re trying to kill each other but not really.

[Vulgard]

@Arctic

@Vulgard

Then votes Eliza and says Kanave/Nokiel loses the game. No, it does not, you’ve been thinking Nokiel is mafia, you just kill Nokiel and point to the fact you pushed them.

she was saying if people just killed her and nokiel then we would lose (which is true even if just one of them is town

I know, but it’s… weird to argue. You’ve had Nokiel as a wolfread all game, why isn’t the POV “if you kill me instead of nokiel” or something like that?

[Vulgard]

@May

Kanave/Vulgard - I’m not sure Vulgard would bus this much, but maybe?

In my three most recent wolfgames, I tried to bus day 1. Two times, I successfully did, the third time, my hydra partner chose not to (and the wolf I was bussing still died).

[Vulgard]

Like, it’s the fact she’s framing it collectively that’s weird to me. If she really wolfreads Nokiel, there should be some element of ego and actual arguing involved, instead she’s just like “re-evaluate the town because me/Nokiel is a bad poe” which is deflecting from… her own read.

[Vulgard]

Idk if you get my point but it just feels like it’s more important to her for more people to be on the table than for Nokiel to die all of a sudden.