Pathologic Invitational - TOWN VICTORY!!

[Arctic]

@Lemonfairy i kind of think you are a wolf

why are you not a wolf

[Lemonfairy]

idk
luck of the draw?

[Lemonfairy]

who are your teams rn?

[Lemonfairy]

wait, did I ask that already?

[Arctic]

who are your teams right now
why don’t you solve the game

i think you are a wolf, that should be concern enough for you if you are town.

[Lemonfairy]

I’m looking through Nokiel/Vul rn
then I might look at Nokiel/May

then all the others
I skipped over Nokiel/Kanave because idk, I already did it before and came to see them as not w/w but honestly Vul’s wall was good but I’m just slightly paranoid that Vul’s a wolf then that wouldn’t matter

I kind of want to know what you think of it and/or the teams most b/c you’re cleared but you’re not saying anything so

[Arctic]

that’s not an answer
what team do you actually think is the most likely right now

[Lemonfairy]

I’m not answering because I’m going to get tunneled and I want to explore all the options even if it will be more painful

take that however you want

[Arctic]

i mean you surely already have an answer in your head

not sure why you can’t just write it down here and i think it’s wolfy that you aren’t

[Lemonfairy]

yes, I have an answer in my head that’s just carried over from my reads throughout the game and I do have a bias for that answer but idk how realistic that team is

now is also not the time for that
from experience, the best thing I can do right now is to completely ignore my previous reads and solve solely with w/w interactions and vote whoever is most likely scum based on remaining worlds I can’t reasonably break (I know it seems counterintuitive but it should be much more accurate than my individual reads)

if you think I’m wolfy, find who I’m wolf with because if you can’t, that just means I’m not a wolf

[Lemonfairy]

Nokiel/Vul world potential

Nokiel on Vul

@Nokiel

Generally a bit skeptical about Vul and Arc’s general confidence in reads, but might just be… eh, confidence and quick decisions feel like pushing to rush through the game.

@Nokiel

It generally made me skeptical of Vul and Arc at first, but now I’m seeing it more as them trying to get material to solve other slots with.

@Nokiel

Hoenstly, you and Vul kind of became one entity in my mind for a bit. I also think seeing #46 on what looked like a meme post with a vote attached kind of solidified that ides in my mind

@Nokiel

Eliza has just started producing something to look into later, Vul has been someone who has had me on edge (but that’s likely for being played by loud players in old format), Lemon is a slot that I have had issues getting anything out of. I think I want to try to find content from them. (After Kanave, who’s been lowposting a lot)

@Nokiel

Vul, could you lay out why you think bean is alright rn? You have made many short and sweet posts where you state your thoughts, but I feel like you don’t elaborate much. Could I ask for a post elaborating on your thoughts on different slots rn?

to Vul (I assume)

@Nokiel

Really? I haven’t been seeing posts laying out thoughts…

Just read the ISO, I didn’t see big posts, but you are right, the elaborations just seem pretty short. I am still curious on the sudden change in opinion on Beancat.

@Nokiel

I mean, it is a response that can be seen as so blunt, vague and “bad” if you’re trying to dissociate that it doesn’t feel thought out and thus less wolfy?

@Nokiel

Honestly, rn your slot is the one I’m not thinking about much. I’m more curious about Kanave and Bean. But with what Vul outlined I am unsure if I want to pursue Bean, and Eliza is someone I’ve been on most of the game

@Nokiel

Vul - Very focused thoughts and it does feel like they’re trying to solve. Happy with responses to questions.

@Nokiel

I think it’s biased from what I’ve been reading and having been pressured by them before, but I still find Vul a bit uncomfortable, but can’t elaborate on how, hence why I think it’s rooted in bias.

@Nokiel

Ah, I barely answered Q2. I do think wolves would likely be on Aelin, but it feels incongruous with my thoughts on the voters. I think May is town, I think my suspicion on Vul isn’t valid, I think you have seemed towny and Eliza is someone I feel like I’ve focused on more out of not understanding how they play than something concrete

@Nokiel

I still find Vul off, but I feel like it is rooted in bias from the pressure they’ve exerted on me and the attitude I got from previous, dissimilar mafia formats.

I do feel a bit more confident with others also finding them off, but I don’t think I can even scumlean them.

@Nokiel

My town right now contains everyone except Kanave, Eliza and Vul.

Kanave is the one I Scumread most, Eliza is Scumlean and Vul is more nulltown/null.

@Nokiel

Vul I literally can’t remember why I find off, Imma have to find that again.

@Nokiel

I get that people are solving into me, and I have made some posts that have been very wolfy because I’ve been nervous about what I say, which ironically got me wolfread and I should hsve realized that. Of course the 2 misexecuted townies make me worried, but I don’t see how not trying to solve does anything about it.

With what you’ve said I think it’s either a confident wolf who has (generally) gotten read as town (Vul in this case), or something else. You and Eliza are the ones I SR most for just taking a somewhat backseating position most of the game, but that’s been changing somewhat. I still SR you two the most nonetheless, because I don’t see my other reads as worse.

@Nokiel

I also do agree with May’s analysis of Eliza’s interactions with Vul, I had not really noticed how they interacted with one another before, specifically them constantly showing suspicion of each other, but not doing anything with it.

I still feel like Vul is the one that might just be not caring much, getting wolfread and carrying on, and Eliza’s position scares me more.

@Nokiel

I only really suspect Vul rn, and I don’t know who the partner would be…

@Nokiel

Are your thoughts on this still the same, Vul?

I can’t find anything that I can point to regarding Vul, they stated early in the game that they aren’t as confident as town and I feel like they’ve projected confidence all game, but that is literally all I feel like I can surely believe in and that does not hold up.

@Nokiel

I’m honestly wondering about Vul/Lemon, does that pairing make any sense? I can’t see a Kanave pairing, Arc is IC, I know my own town alignment and May is…

Silly, I like it. A lot of pressure to solve (which is fakable I guess). Reused strategy, (which Vul pressed them on (But I can’t recall Vul ever voting May)) Misreads, not sure if this is useful. I had the suicidal EoD because May wanted to narrow the possible worlds with my exe, I feel like that would be very scary for a wolf to do if they were aware of how many fewer worlds there would be.

Still feel like Vul/Lemon is the pairing I’m most interested in

Vul on Nokiel

@Vulgard

i think this is a wolfy opener
largely because the bolded feels self-conscious

@Vulgard

VOTE: Nokiel

i think i like this better for now

@Vulgard

ngl my confidence in my ability to read new players is rock bottom after i misread and pushed two newbie villagers last game so i don’t want to put too much stock in this read

i do think this opener is wolfy though and in a different way than why i thought otterpopd and prisma (the aforementioned two newbie villagers) were wolfy in their game

@Vulgard

i think whysper and nokiel are towny

@Vulgard

Thinking Nokiel and maybe this. Re-reading Nokiel’s posts as a whole made me drop them. I think we had V/V wagons yesterday and the inaction of these slots checks out with the gamestate.

@Vulgard

VOTE: Nokiel

to Nokiel (about bean)

@Vulgard

i think her commentary at start of day was something that she didn’t come in with predetermined
which she would have were she a wolf

@Vulgard

oh i was trying to refer to the fact i had nokiel and kanave as two most likely wolves as i changed my mind on bean and thought eliza was fairly towny when pushing aelin

@Vulgard

my main issue with nokiel’s posting is that they are consistently doing the “could be town, could be mafia” thing which is level 1 wolfy

@Vulgard

kanave pointed toward this just now but i don’t like the way she did this and that seems to be her only read

@Vulgard

realistically i wouldn’t feel bad about killing either or nokiel
my poe hasn’t changed at all really

@Vulgard

the woes of having a good scumgame

VOTE: Nokiel

@Vulgard

1+ in kanave/nokiel fmpov and i’m feeling this more rn

@Vulgard

i’m also liking nokiel’s posts more and eliza’s less

@Vulgard

evaluating them as a whole gives me the answer of “it doesn’t matter that they sound hedgy, they seem like they are genuinely processing the game and playing by discovery, which is particularly visible in how their view of the game shifts as they absorb new information and their questions are answered”

this seems vague but just pay close attention to how they interact with people and you might see what i’m seeing

@Vulgard

i think nokiel is the most towny player in the eliza/beancat/kanave/nokiel quartet and i don’t like beancat trying to get them killed now after townreading them on day 1

@Vulgard

i think kanave is not w/w with beancat and not w/w with eliza which would mean she has to be with nokiel but i now think nokiel is townier

@Vulgard

i think i’m with the people saying kanave and nokiel were trying to distance and kanave’s eod vote is now confirmed to have been awful

@Vulgard

w/w or not w/w with nokiel i don’t want to kill her rn

@Vulgard

i think kanave is wolfier than nokiel so kanave it is

@Vulgard

nokieliminate

@Vulgard

May is likely not with Nokiel

@Vulgard

May’s posts about Nokiel are kind of whatever before this, but.

@Vulgard

There is absolutely no way this is W/W. Ever.

@Vulgard

This entire sequence is bizarre.

@Vulgard

I have no idea how she kinda just… ignored what Nokiel was doing? But it’s probably villagery.

@Vulgard

VOTE: Nokiel

@Vulgard

It looks like Nokiel decided to self-vote, went to wolfchat and then was instructed to come back lol.

@Vulgard

I’m not, I really don’t see May voting Nokiel as their wolf partner and them immediately going to self-vote. If Nokiel is a wolf self-voting then they must’ve noticed the writing on the wall, and they wouldn’t notice that from… a single vote on them… which is from their partner in this world…

Check the VC from when I’m quoting, when May turns on Nokiel they are the only person voting Nokiel. Nokiel immediately self-votes.

@Vulgard

When reading Kanave’s posts about Nokiel, I thought she was trying to get Nokiel MLed, but later I noticed a pattern that makes me think it’s actually hard distancing / maybe bussing. The one time she talks to Nokiel directly, it’s her writing a post that’ll make her look better if Nokiel flips mafia. She writes a lot of posts about Nokiel being wolfy and a wolf but both times she she has the chance to kill them at EoD and doesn’t.

@Vulgard

Noting that Nokiel actually starts pushing on Kanave when Kanave pushes them on day 3, but come today, Nokiel’s townreading Kanave as if nothing happened. And yesterday, Kanave didn’t argue to vote out Nokiel when it mattered, despite actually having the chance to kill Nokiel. In fact, she argued in Nokiel’s defense in a roundabout way and randomly punted Eliza.

This is why I need an extra pair of eyes, it just feels like they’re trying to kill each other but not really.

why does Vul have so many posts
anyway, this isn’t w/w

[Lemonfairy]

I’m also kinda hard townreading Vul now

[Arctic]

@Lemonfairy

if you think I’m wolfy, find who I’m wolf with because if you can’t, that just means I’m not a wolf

if you had read today’s posts you would know the answer to this

[Kanave]

@Arctic

and actually what does this even mean

No fucking clue what i meant by that; maybe i meant stepping up? as in like posting more no idea

[Kanave]

@Vulgard

SHROOP.

Whats a shroop?

[Kanave]

@May

I’m sorry that I wasn’t more forceful about stopping the Eliza execution - that was largely my fault, as I wasn’t clear enough that my Eliza/Vulgard world was based on Nokiel being a villager

its fine, i had apprenhensions and voted anyways that was just a big fuck up from everyone who was around

[Kanave]

you use a #

[Kanave]

dont mark yourself green when trying to make me look bad for my planning ahead

[Kanave]

@Arctic

don’t want to turn down the game despite having little to no interest in playing

yeah realistically i should not have joined this game i didnt have the time nor energy but here i am

[Kanave]

@Vulgard

This is the post I felt Kanave wrote for the express purpose of making herself look good after Nokiel’s flip. She does absolutely nothing with this line of inquiry later on.

Other than vote Eliza for possible pairigs of her and you???