Percy Jackson and the Olympians FM - Town wins!

[May]

I mean on one hand yes. On the other hand it’s Leafia

[Frostwolf103]

Again, I dont have a killing ability

(Why does everyone assume that every time I play)

[Apprentice]

ngl when I read your SoD message I thought the next one would be host announcing you as IC lol

[Apprentice]

I do think trying to factor potential coaching happening into your reads will almost always be detrimental

[Apprentice]

oh yeah what are thoughts on moose’s outing Leafia EoD?

[May]

I will note that I’m a complete control freak as wolf and do end up coaching my teammates sometimes: I’ve straight-up written posts for my teammates before, I’ve told my teammates exactly what to say and what reads to have, I’ve told them when to show up and whether to bus and who to vote for. However. I see people speculate this happening much more than I’ve ever done it myself, and I don’t think anybody but me has ever done it so directly in a wolfchat I’ve been in. The most I’ve seen is “here’s how we’re going to read each other, you’re going to [townread/wolfread] me based on [xyz points]”, and that was from Achro.

Straight coaching is uncommon, and it’s especially uncommon in the case where the teammates believe they know how to wolf. Leafia isn’t a scared first-time wolf, she believes she knows how to wolf and she’ll do her own thing. You’d have to be fairly pushy to start writing posts for her like Atlas was insinuating. I think it’s best to treat her like her own person.

[Apprentice]

@May

“here’s how we’re going to read each other, you’re going to [townread/wolfread] me based on [xyz points]”,

oh see I consider this basic wolf team strategy not coaching lol

coaching imo is writing posts or heavily regulating exactly how a specific member needs to act in thread

[Apprentice]

but idk how most people see it

[tutuu]

@Arctic

a novel

Most of this is going to be talking about Leafia spew/interactions and how eod directs my reads because the latest legacy i gave considers pretty much everything except these two things, so I don’t expect my townreads to change too much

I think Leafia accusing tutuu early on of TMI’ing sulit town is very likely to make sulit town and also pretty likely to make tutuu town. Leafia’s gut townread on Kiiruma “My gut is telling me that Kiiruma is a villager atm. Hopefully it’s right about that.” is not how she usually talks about partners, so it’s a decent look for kiiruma but not something I’m willing to lock in like the previous thing

i’ve realized that this is very quickly just going to turn into a wolfcase on atlas and luxy for several reasons. the first thing i want to talk about is the angle from leafia’s side. remember the interaction i had with leafia where she called out me saying “i want to see what you do next” as being wolfy, and not commenting on atlas making the exact same post, despite mine being a copypasta of hers? i’m pretty sure this happened because they are partners. even when i presented the post right to her face, she called out something else about it as being wolfy rather than that specific thing. she called out atlas’s entrance as being wolfy but then pretty much said nothing about her the entire game until eod when she floated the idea of CFD’ing Atlas.

this is a pretty bad look for Luxy because if the wagons were v/w Leafia would just be begging people to vote Luxy, but she… wasn’t. which is what i think might indicate that the wagons were w/w. consider that nobody was actually pushing for anyone to vote Luxy in the last 20 minutes or so of the day when we had decided on Leafia/Luxy wagons, and none of the people who ended on Luxy were particularly wolfy. i think the first instinct might be to go after Apprentice who pretty clearly preferred Luxy over Leafia but consider that it’s pretty likely pandora is town given the way Leafia and pandora interacted, and remember how Apprentice was the one to push the idea that pandora is probably the misyeet wolves were happy with. i think that this was probably correct, and is not something wolves would want to bring light to - so that has me thinking Apprentice is town and I’m going back to thinking that no wolves were really trying to push Luxy over instead, and imo that is an indication that the wagons were w/w. back on the whole “cfd’ing Atlas” thing, part of me feels like it was designed to spew Atlas town because she could not have seriously thought it was ever going to go through. but, either way, it is incredibly incriminating for Luxy. we have all seen wolf Leafia in domes with villagers - she screams for their heads and spams a bunch of nonsense, but she wasn’t actually trying hard to push Luxy over here. she just wanted to survive, which has bad implications for luxy’s alignment imo.

something worth noting is that i don’t think wolves expected leafia to go over or planned around it - and regardless of luxy’s alignment (pending if he’s a better role or not) wolves -probably- did want him to go over Leafia given that her position in people’s reads was significantly better. which, while somewhat hypocritical of me, does have me looking at Atlas again for her Luxy vote when the wagons were decided on Leafia/Luxy. Nobody should be awarded cred for switching to Leafia after Anonymoose cc’ed redirector - Atlas in particular is smart enough to realize that Leafia was gonna die there after being cc’ed with around 60 seconds left iirc. It especially doesn’t matter if Luxy is also a wolf

Remembering the whole segment where Leafia argued with Apprentice about how I shouldn’t be cleared if Luxy flips wolf, I think this may just be as simple as spewing Luxy wolf and Leafia not being happy about me being rightfully cleared for it, which also spews Apprentice town. It’s a weird thing for a wolf to harp on about if Luxy is town, and knowing Leafia’s TMI tendencies it does kinda just look like Luxy is probably a wolf here. And, well, I spoke about it in my legacy at eod but Luxy being a wolf leads pretty surely to Atlas being a wolf too given her treatment of him (overly generous townread —> moving him down after being called out ----> trying to rewrite history by claiming she only ever had him as a null read - these are all textbook signs of w/w damage control). I won’t quote stuff here, but please don’t just not read her iso because she has 300 posts halfway into day 2 or whatever. if she is a wolf that’s what she wants to happen by re-writing history and hoping people don’t check. her townread on luxy was overly generous and she tried to talk it down as much as possible

Some other stuff I thought is worth pointing out:

This interaction feels W/W to me because Leafia does not treat anybody else like this - she didn’t randomly ask anyone to explain their reads without good reason, and wolves often get antsy about feeling like they have to interact with each other, and this interaction feels like exactly that. this was the first time she interacted atlas after calling her opener wolfy. they then go on to have a conversation where atlas asks leafia why she finds pandora wolfy, while both of them are parked on pandora. it doesn’t feel natural at all. it feels like an interaction that exists just for the sake of it and doesn’t achieve anything meaningful

I think the last thing i want to bring up on the atlas/leafia topic is atlas’s read of leafia. the premise of her read being “leafia is town unless she’s being coached” both seems hilariously like a read made with TMI and a smart angle to take as a wolf who is in fact coaching Leafia - because it serves to spread the idea that Leafia is posting better than she normally does as wolf and she is thus town here, and also opens avenues to push other people down the line once Leafia has flipped for “coaching” her

i think the main indicator of pandora being v is how long Leafia parked her vote on her and the whole reaction test episode just spews pandora town. i think she is doubly spewed town if anyone else on her wagon during the day flips wolf (which probably is the case). if the game seems wrong and pandora is overtly wolfy or something then it’s worth re-visiting but this game would have to be hella strange for her to be a wolf

there’s a wifom with whether or not leafia would actually say “all the wagons are town vote:jarek” if all the wagons were actually town, but, even for her i think this seems a bit too much to be true so it still leaves me wanting to kill luxy, especially in conjunction with #1210 seeming hilariously like TMI. also a wifom also with her posts about illwei at eod. not sure what to make of it

i’m aware that ash voted luxy at eod and he’s probably gonna get shit for that but i actually think the way ash handled it is more likely to come from town than not, but i’m not confident about this. i think with at least 1 wolf being wagoned ash is more likely to make some form of stance sooner rather than hedging his bets until the last second - May made a point of this too which seems pretty spot on (though I wonder what this means for May himself lol). Illwei wanted to shut down the pandora wagon when the wagons were luxy/leafia/leafia. if luxy is a wolf too this is a decent look

aside from this, i suspect that wolves are very likely to be in the people voting pandora pre-eod or no-voting because my impression is that wolves were planning on just letting that misyeet happen, especially if the most plausible CW pre-eod (luxy) is a wolf. so, we’re once again looking at atlas/luxy but also someone i haven’t mentioned until now - frostwolf, who i think can easily be mafia given he did basically nothing except push pandora for no reason and was lacking his usual towny drive and self-assuredness. i do get hints of it though - like he doesn’t really sound like his normal wolf-self, which is why i don’t want to kill him immediately but please get him to turn it up tomorrow

---

Anonymoose is obviously town after how eod transpired. Bys and Jarek are still probably town on posting but don’t really have anything in their favor from that eod. Kiiruma I have no fucking clue about, as usual. the Leafia wagon pre-tutuu should be clear if Luxy is town. If luxy isn’t town then re-visit illwei - not May, because May was also on Luxy’s case early on so I think she’s most likely town either way. I think beancat could slot in here somewhere because she honestly just isn’t that towny and though I’m not sure exactly if her eod was influenced by irl, if it wasn’t then her behaviour could be explained by wolf doomering about w/w wagons. the only thing i think she has in her favor is leafia randomly putting her at the top of her read list with zero mention prior because leafia doesn’t tend to treat her partners like that, but it feels pretty weak and she’s just not towny so shrug. if i had to spitball a team it would probably be luxy+atlas and 1 of illwei/frostwolf/beancat. kiiruma can slot in here too, atlas and him townread each other cheekily for nebulous reasons. don’t kill illwei if luxy is town, she’s a serial wolfsider and wouldn’t have voted leafia + correctly called v!pandora and v!luxy at eod as a wolf

which leaves my poe as

ash (don’t really believe it but i can have 7 names not accounting for extra kp)
illwei (she’s prob just town esp if luxy is town but still needs to be here)
frostwolf (don’t believe this either but he needs to turn it up tomorrow, otherwise kill him soon)
beancat
kiiruma
atlas
luxy

pandora would be above this but no room. prob don’t kill her if luxy wolf tho

Wow this is literally SBPC sans Atlas! I don’t think I can do much about this though when these players did not post themselves clear!

my strongest townreads are anonymoose, tutuu, apprentice, may and sulit. bystander and jarek are a tier below. pandora i think still has a small chance of being a wolf but i think it’s unlikely. don’t ever kill app if luxy/atlas contains at least 1 wolf. don’t ever kill may if luxy is a wolf. don’t ever kill anonymoose lmao. tutuu and sulit are tinfoilable in lylo i guess - but if luxy is a wolf don’t ever kill tutuu cuz she called out leafia/luxy wolf early lol (gonna invoke a vague tinfoil on sulit rn for post-game cred, cuz she responded to anon’s cc but didn’t move her vote…). re-visit bys/jarek/pandora if the poe is bad. gl

@tutuu there is a reasonable chance that we were right about it just being a team cheekily trying to townread each other but not having the threadpull to do so (being kiiruma/atlas/leafia/luxy - i remember us mindmelding on this earlier) which is still my working assumption rn but i don’t think all of the wolves have to be in here, just 1 minimum but most likely 2

luxy should just be a freebie. i’m less sure on atlas because i am kinda oscillating between him/kiiruma being a difference check rather than w/w but meh, i think we can probably flip all 3 to bag at least 1 and hopefully 2. but especially flip atlas if luxy is a wolf. please.

MECH STUFF: wow good thing i didnt forget to remove this lol

lastly, remember to ignore any mech bullshit from kiiruma and atlas unless it is literally a greencheck claimed by a completely uninvolved player, they are both players known for curating smart mechanical scenarios as mafia and “clearing” themselves off of false mech in rolemadness games

have fun gamers, i’m sure y’all have this now. don’t take my word as the gospel, use your brains. but if you don’t wanna use your brains then you can take my word as the gospel. though i just hope you use it to inform your reads especially if i wind up dead despite not really being a main pusher of Leafia

Reposting for visibility. This is a tiny spoiler thats easily missed

@ everyone: lots of words here. Consider reading!!!

[May]

@Apprentice

I do think trying to factor potential coaching happening into your reads will almost always be detrimental

This is true for micro (specific posts, tone, the kind of thing that can’t usually be trained easily), but I think it’s kiiiind of false for macro (when people show up, how they treat their partners, etc). Like if a serial hellbusser was paired up with somebody they respect a lot and would submit to, and that person hates bussing, I’d expect changes in their behaviour. If a brand-new player shows up and does “clearing” things, or has a really good claim, and you want to locktown them for it, but a really good wolf flips, I think you should be more cautious about doing that.

That being said, I think people much more often overestimate coaching than they underestimate it, and I agree that it’s kind of silly to apply it as logic here. Nobody on this playerlist is ordering Leafia around or writing posts for her. That’s ridiculous.

[Arctic]

to be honest i kinda just shrug town binned it without much thought but it’s probably not really clearing if luxy is a wolf too

[May]

@Apprentice

oh see I consider this basic wolf team strategy not coaching lol

coaching imo is writing posts or heavily regulating exactly how a specific member needs to act in thread

I consider it strategy when two ~equally experienced players talk about it, I consider it coaching when there’s an inexperienced/unskilled player who never would’ve thought of that stuff on their own who’s taking orders to do it.

They show up differently on your radar: two wolves on equal footing will probably each individually act as expected, if they hate bussing then they’re not likely to start bussing just because their partner’s a big fan of it, they’ll probably each do their own thing. If somebody’s submitting to another person’s will, then they’ll start acting out of character for normal w!them.

[Arctic]

in the mountainous game where me/phraze were wolves i tried to do all of this stuff too but i only managed to direct her pushes and wording of posts rather than ghostwriting because she preferred operating by herself which is basically what you’re saying here. so it’s still possible that some behaviour is being directed but we won’t really know how much

[May]

Luckily I’ve got May privilege so people let me write posts for them

[Apprentice]

I mean I don’t think it’s ever fully clearing

but I’ve vibed w/ some of their other stuff and with that also factoring in I’m down to just put them in the town bin for now

[May]

That being said I usually don’t try to directly write posts for people unless they seem like they want/need it. The literal copy-paste here’s a May post to send was on Discord where I’m the king of the world, and with a good friend (we hydraed in our first game, we played here as BostonFlours). More commonly I’ll say “here’s what you’ve gotta say, paraphrase this into your own words”.

So yeah looking at somebody’s post and going “I think another person wrote this” is still universally silly. Unless you’re speculating somebody on the wolfteam has real deep trust for another

[Apprentice]

fwiw if atlas is a wolf, wolves are probably very cornered. atlas spent a lot of yesterday trying to fight consensus it felt like (or at least the consensus of people I agreed with and townread lmfao)

[May]

Basically we’re saying hte same thing over and over here. Atlas’s speculation is silly. You know this, I know this. I’m just here to brag about how much of a control freak of a wolf I am. My brother is having a conversation outside my door and I can’t hear everything he’s saying but he’s listing a LOT of countries. We’ve got a “Serbia”, “Albania”, “Bosnia”

[Arctic]

what do u think about it? it’s kinda uncanny how much we melded on reasons why atlas is a wolf

but places we disagreed were on app, beancat, and luxy. i think leafia not pushing luxy hard at eod means smth

also want thoughts on leafia posts about illwei at eod

and leafia puttingg beancat as her top villager then never mentioning her again

[Arctic]

@May

Like if a serial hellbusser was paired up with somebody they respect a lot and would submit to

unfortunately im not a serial hellbusser