Players' Choice Invitational - Town Wins!

[Vulgard]

@Vulgard

@YoubutWorse

arctic & atlas V

wazza W
these are the only 3 that I actually feel confident about, not saying that I’m right just that I think my reasons make sense to myself

ybw is a villager thanks
bolded is the particularly villagery part

semi-real read
the bolding i did to explain to people so that part’s not real (at least mostly) but the read itself is real

@Vulgard

idk guys i think atlas is a villager independently from his claim and i don’t see what’s so hard about divorcing reads on him from his claim

real thought

@Vulgard

if this is a push on villager wazza arete’s wolf stocks rise significantly too

real thought and i remember having to defend it a lot (including from arete themselves)

@Vulgard

real talk though
my only real reads so far are ybw town and atlas leaning town
everything else is not w/w reads like arete/wazza and marshal/wazza
the arete/wazza unalign i think is a bit stronger

this is where i pretend i was toying around
i had it backwards the entire time and i’m admitting to it (and also admitting it to myself) only now

@Vulgard

i was hoping you wouldn’t say that so i’d get a reaction from someone that’s actually ai

this is actually false
the copypasta this post refers to was posted purely for memes and not without a greater reason

@Vulgard

although i think this one is villagery so
just locking in the read further

mostly real

@Vulgard

basically, i think arete can be townier than this, and they aren’t

their engagement with wazza is something i don’t really like, because i feel like they made an argument out of nothing, and it’s currently absorbing a lot of the thread’s attention; i don’t get the sense they’re actually being inquisitive, but rather, they are setting up a misyeet

their handling of my slot is also very much an arm’s length method of engagement whereas i think town arete would care more about solving my slot and get me to engage on things

trying too hard to have a good read on arete
real mindset: i just saw a good wolfgame from arete so i wanted to push them bc i thought i was getting snowed already

@Vulgard

i think the optimal strat here is to let other people post because some are still at 0 or functionally 0 (mistyx, eli, outed wolf, marl, brad, kiiruma)
long list of people statistically likely to have wolves on it if not the entire team

i just wanted people to post but the strategic reason i gave is bogus, i just wanted to sound like i had a purpose / sound smart

@Vulgard

@min

vulgard is making up points

accurate

rare moment of admission

@Vulgard

i would like to bring everybody’s attention to hippopablompoyeetus
he’s 100% the player i’d expect to be a wagon rn next to mistyx maybe
all he has is three votes for bad or no reason and a mediocre joke
yet he’s not a wagon
why is he town

i just wanted people to talk about hippo
me thinking he’s possibly mafia for wagonomics reasons was only included in this post to convince people they should think about his slot

@Vulgard

if outed wolf is visor then i’d turbo him

i did think that at the time
changed my mind later fortunately

@Vulgard

i like kiiruma’s big post just now, he can be a villager

real read (and also correct)

[Vulgard]

should i keep going or is that enough for you

[Vulgard]

@Atlas

What’s the likelihood that Marl would’ve been found as lw before d4

squirrel flipping town means the earlier theory about him being checked n1 probably holds true
i think wolves also likely would’ve checked ranta at some point
i think that if marl was found lw then it happened right as sulit died because i think wolves would’ve liked to know if ranta/squirrel are the lw

i won’t make up a reason why i think that this time, it’s pure speculation

[Atlas]

Eh, I doubt your lying about most of your real thoughts being just “gutreads” so

[Vulgard]

@Vulgard

@Vulgard

i was hoping you wouldn’t say that so i’d get a reaction from someone that’s actually ai

this is actually false
the copypasta this post refers to was posted purely for memes and not without a greater reason

speaking of this, another thing i often do is that i retroactively make up reasoning for my random nonsense to make myself look better and to potentially steer the thread in the direction i want

[Vulgard]

my theory about who the wolves checked is squirrel n1 (there’s actual evidence for that) and ranta n2
just based on gamestate things
so basically on nothing but my instinct in reading the game

[Vulgard]

n3 is irrelevant because sulit got shot that night

[Vulgard]

i didn’t expect this game to feature a grand vulgard confession but i guess it does now

[Atlas]

I was hoping it would lead me to like “Marl and sulit combined would’ve probably made this” but it was Arctic who was always dying so

[Vulgard]

the problem with sulit is that she always dies in lylo if ranta and eli and squirrel all die too (which they probably would have since they are the easiest misyeets)
and whoever’s the last wolf would have to justify bringing her to lylo in the first place

[Vulgard]

the fact i got her shot with a single post is true but i agree that doesn’t necessarily make me town and i easily could’ve done that for credit

[Atlas]

Or by not knowing
Much didn’t discrimate her from ranta

[Vulgard]

or that yes

[Vulgard]

i think that after wind was outed wolves knew they had to 100% rely on lw to win the game which is why they didn’t care about spewing anyone (like in the case of wind)

[Vulgard]

but looking for who wind spewed is pointless because wind didn’t know who the lw was
i think it all checks out

[Vulgard]

so basically three things i believe are true

1. wolves checked squirrel and ranta for lw on n1 and n2 respectively, finding that neither was lw
2. wolves knew their chances of survival were basically 0 the moment wind was outed
3. wolves knew they had to rely on lw to win the game after wind was outed so wind kept posting and didn’t care about spewing people because it didn’t matter

[Atlas]

So
Who was the n3 check?

[Vulgard]

the n3 check is completely irrelevant because sulit got shot that night so even if they found the lw that doesn’t change anything

[Atlas]

It matters about who the wolves thought were lw

[Vulgard]

@Vulgard

wolves knew they had to rely on lw to win the game after wind was outed so wind kept posting and didn’t care about spewing people because it didn’t matter

it should be noted that i don’t necessarily think wind was trying to spew the lw town, i think it’s more likely wolves didn’t know the lw and so she just posted spewy stuff without thinking about it too hard