Popcorn - Turboer Edition (Mafia wins)

I swear to god I say “defence isn’t real” like ever ygame why can’t I find any of them wit hhte search function

I don’t see how u saying it every game disproves anything I said but go off

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I found them they’re all on Nintendo Loop

dont defend urself then lol I’m still gonna bc I make good points and im town

It disproves the idea that I’m saying towncsaes in F3 are NAI as an agenda thing. That’s stupid. I’m saying towncases in F3 are NAI because towncases in F3 are NAI, because that is what I actually think. I have no reason to say that as wolf because it makes me look like shit

I’m not saying I won’t defend myself I’ll still do it because it’s still fun for me but I don’t think it’s actually alignment indicative I think it’s frivolous

Defend urself and we’ll see whos townier

Like I’m not here to argue whether or not they’re actually NAI I don’t care. Other people think differently from me and I don’t care. I’m saying that me claiming this is not wolfy

It’s wolfy bc ur a wolf. I’m gonna go to bed now

Ugh but my iso is so boring Blue's Clues Blue's Clues 19841 1984198419841984198419841984198419841984

Except when I’m catching wolves I should’be pursued this further. THis isn’t related I’m just showing off

Circular logic, mods explode YBW in the shredder

Everything here is a performance for Ash please keep our audience in mind

I am currently playing Ace Attorney. I promise that I will properly backread everything tomorrow morning.

I LOVE talking about myself I’m gonna keep talking about myself. This is gonna focus more on why it would be Bad for w!me to take specific actions rather than my hidden secret thoughts behind things because quite frankly I was not that thoughtful about what I was posting! This is extremely towny, I was much more off-the-cuff and open than I would’ve been as wolf, while YBW was slow and measured and planned

  1. My entry post was a reply to Magnus’s, not a cold open, and it shows I was casually reading thread and had a joke to add so I did. It indicates I didn’t htink about my opener. This is not actually a super reliable tell because I’m aware of it but I will subconsciously do more planned openers on average as wolf even trying not to
  2. It doesn’t make any sense to open with focus on a partner like this before they’ve even posted, especially not in a way that immediately draws attention to them not being given the gun. I’ve run Popcorn setups in VC before I’ve run the math many times: bussing in Popcorn fucking sucks, you not only fail to get a misexecution with a given shot, you need an extra townie dead to match. I am the nervous chihuahua around my partners and I am literally incapable of wolfreading them it makes no sense to make this my turnaround
  3. I was tired as fuck this entire time and I would not trust w!me to post like that in that state, I am much more awkward when I’m tired and I could’ve just not contributed because it was 2AM. I talked because I knew I had nothing to lose
  1. Points I made about giving Eliza the gun being stupid still stand, I am a pushy person with wolf actions, I commanded my entire team in Stellaris, I would not agree to do something I thought was suboptimal (especially not if my partner was tutuu). These also were real-time reactions treating the subject with casualness in a way I would be way more nervous about if I were a wolf, I wouldn’t want to slip something
  2. Townreading this many people early on is vaguely anti-wolf (this is a mediocre point but it’s true, I focus much more on scumreads htan townreads as a wolf)

This was a shitpost but I also just genuinely tend to have >rand intuition when I just let my hand settle on a team. I was doing it way too early here, not everybody had posted yet and so it was counterproductive, but insisting it’s two people who haven’t posted yet fails to push wolf agenda because nobody is actually going to believe it: it only succeeded in making me look bad

If I were actually pushing agenda there, it would make absolutely no sense to immediately move to call people weird for agreeing with me. If I were trying to push unsubstantiated reads as fact, I would treat them as fact. But being town, I was fully aware of the level of confidence I had in these reads! Which was, uh, a mix of unfounded confidence high and low only accessible to people at 2AM. The only resaon it’d make sense to do this would be to push further agenda against YBW…

Which I do not do here or all game until now. When the source of my agenda “YBW is confirmed as a wolf” is very clear.

This is nonsense and I would have never thought to post it as wolf

I was getting super caught in thought circles here: I would not have ever given the gun to Eliza, so I thought that any player similar to me also would have never given the gun to Eliza, and therefore the wolves must be the two players most dissimilar to me in thinking, and every time I thought about it, I just got more and more trapped in “well nobody else would ever make that choice!”, making me tunnelled. This was because I was very tired and not at my fullest intellectual capacity.

These would all have to be steps I would individually think to take: I’d have to make up the judgement on who to give the gun (because I would have had to agree to give the gun to Eliza), make up that bias in judging other players, make up the hampered ability to think because of being exhausted, and all that to look… bad. To look like I was mindlessly tunnelling players, for the most part, in a way that made everybody else think I was wolfy. What would be the point of that? It wasn’t oging to ever actually convince anybody, because the mental pictures of you and Bionic existed only in my head, and I wasn’t succeeding at putitng them down on the page and explaining what was going on.

I also proceeded to acknowledge this in the thread itself! It took me a moment ot realise what I was doing, but this was the case: I had some vibes on who I think would pick the gun, but I was also just kind of picking the players I wanted the wolves to be. Pretty much everything I thought was down in the thread at this point, because I had like zero filter, and I also didn’t try to make it… user-facing. I didn’t try to explain myself too hard, I wasn’t trying to look towny. YBW was clearly doing well

This was an instant reaction that I didn’t try at the time to leverage into a wolfread, which I really should have done because it was CORRECT

To explain this read better: if you’re somebody who is habitually suspected early as a wolf in a mafia game, you don’t want a skilled player, or even a player who just reads a lot, to start out with the gun. You know you will potentially instalose there, while if you give it to somebody who reads less and is more prone to hero-shooting, it’s more likely that you’ll get an early misexecution and townies will snowball themselves into a loss.

Therefore, if you know you’ll be PoEd early, you pick somebody who you think will fire outside of the PoE, like Eliza! And Eliza did that! If you think you’ll be outside of PoE, it makes little sense to pick Eliza and try to influence her, because, like, fifty people were shouting at her that Magnus was town and she still shot them.

This logic ended up being kind of null and void. Tutuu and YBW are both, like, decent wolves, and I genuinely odn’t know why they chose to give Eliza the gun.

I’m having trouble explaining my thoughts because they’re just like really straightforward.

Yeah this is what I said earlier

I don’t get mad about this as wolf. At least I try not to, cause being salty in public makes people like you less and people liking you less makes them kill you. YBW made a factual error about how my play is seen and I wanted to correct it. Also as wolf I have literally no motivation to mention that people townread me when I’m a wolf

Again: I have no motive to talk up how good my wolfgame here is if I am a wolf.

Explaining my thoughts behind this more: YBW was in the exact position she’s been in all game: she was surface-level towny, but didn’t do anything to actually hinder the wolf win condition in a way that meant I didn’t feel like I could genuinely townread her in the same way that I did. I had more reason to think she was town than I did, like, anybody who hadn’t showed up yet, I thought she had been towny, but it felt like she lacked a certain realisticness to her thoughts that I couldn’t put my finger on. Like a very realistic painting of an object, rather than the object itself. And I was right!

I think this is a positoin that wolves tend to be in very often: people who are trying super hard to sound towny and still coming short are less towny than people who are an equal amount towny but clearly trying less, because posting as a wolf takes more effort.

Insulting people is unfortunately towny for me

This is an attempt to explain what I was thinking there: YBW and Magnus both sound pretty good on the surface, but one has towny vibes and one does not. And I was right! I was so correct! I really wish I pursued this further at the time!

This is another line of thought that came from the same one that resulted in me not-super-townreading YBW: people who try super hard to seem towny aren’t towny, and therefore people who joke around and don’t actually care too much about appearances are towny. I was dwelling on the same thing a lot here, because I was very tired, but that’s another realism mindset thing

It’s true

Like the thing I have over YBW here: I can attest to literally everything I was thinking with direct evidence in the thread. My mindset is very transparent and obvious and it’s clear where I leap from one thought to the next, I dwell on things, I get caught in circles. As wolf I want to look smart, authoritative, push agenda. If I’m wolf here I’m going to great effort to look… biased, like an overthinker, like somebody you odn’t want to listen to. Why would I do that? Ever?

Muance

Frankly I kept coming back to YBW being a potential wolf in the back of my mind and I kept bringing it up casually but I was oging “no you shouldn’t case a high town when you’re this tired that’s not smart maybe you’re just seeing things wait until tomorrow to do it”. And then I waited

Another instnace of it… she had weird tone!! Weird tone!!!

This is the towniest series of posts I’ve ever made

This was kind of a stupid read. Whatever. I’m going to chalk that up to being biased by my Ash and Bionic obsession and ignore it. I had just had a streak of getting a bunch of really good cold calls of wolfteams early on: in the last BotF, I guessed the Demon randomly by just thinking about who the Demon would be, in April Showers Reconstructed on Wrongboy I guessed 2/3 wolves and then executed the third on D1. It made me stand by my random early guess reads way more htan I would’ve otherwise, because I went on to push a lot of incorrect reads in both those worlds because I thought my guesses were stupid! They weren’t! But in this case knowing my guesses were often right was what biased me toward pursuing them

I had a super strong burst of motivation this game in a way that I haven’t in my recent ones, and that’s something people pointed out! It’s because I’m out of school and playing less mafia and generally having a better time. I don’t have to do this. It would fit my town meta more to be lethargic and it’d probably get me more townreads - I got suspected for it a bunch early on - and it’d give me more freedom to leave my reads vague and fit in. However, I didn’t! Becuase I was town and I love solving and I love mafia. I am significantly more motivated as town because it’s my preferred way to play the damn game I like PUZZLES I love puzzles

This was another instance of being kinda biased by wanting to chase my early thinkreads, and by this point I was starting to notice that I was biased, which is why I got more hesitant over time. I kept going “oh Bionic is DEFINITELY a wolf” and then trying to adjust for my bias and add caveats and it’s unfortunately very hard to adjust for bias so I kept going back and forth

I wanted to be Less biased, so I asked Bionic a question about why he wolfread me and then backed down (before this game I had literally never seen Bionic back down from a confident read as town: he’d just arbitarily pick a read supe r early on, and then pursue it until the person died), and this reminded me that tutuu also wolfread me and hadn’t stopped, in a way that I thought was uncharacteristic. This is a natural progression from one point to another!

I was coming into this townreading tutuu, so my first thought was “well tutuu wolfreads me every game so it’s NAI”. But then I realised that they… did not have any good resaons to be wolfreading me, and their read didn’t actually make any sense, and as I kept reading through tutuu’s posts they kept dropping lower and lower for me.

I spent like five minutes looking for this example and couldn’t find anything but my first game because I’ve been so burnt out before this game

Specifically, remembering that tutuu had SEEN me tryhard in Serpent and the Swordsman was what finally dropped her from being null to being a wolflean for me. Before then I’d say I thought you were wolfier than tutuu but the more I thought about it the more the wolfread on me was just transparently bullshit.

Towny!!!

YOU ARE SO CLOSE TO GETTING YBW MAY. IT’S YBW. MAY IT’S YBW PLEASE NOTICE THAT IT IS YOU BUT WORSE. TINFOIL HARDER I KNOW YOU CAN DO IT

I did not suddenly turn around on YBW here, and YBW’s accusation that I did is very silly!!! I had transparently been thinking YBW was a potential wolf candidate the entire game and expressed as much consistently, but the fact that she was towny on the surface level and that nobody else thought this way kept holding me back from expressing it.

I felt like I didn’t deserve to wolfread YBW, that I hadn’t thought enough about the game to properly case it or advocate for her to be shot. I felt like it was a problem for later. This was incorrect of me. Lack of confidence is my killer every single time, and it’s not something I tend to actually fake as a wolf, because I want to be confident. I want to have agenda and push what I think and pull the top town into being shot.

But I didn’t trust myself to do it here, despite the fact that I knew I had the material to try. I kept almost posting it and almost casing it and then I’d just not do it. Over and over and over again

Okay that dipped into mindset explanation as I grew to understand past!me’s mindset toward the end htere. But yeah I was routinely working off of a certain set of biases and fears that I only actually display as town and which have no actual purpose to use as wolf. I am town because of the ways in which I am bad at mafia. In general, if you look at me and think “wow May is good at mafia” I’m probably a wolf

YBW is very clearly trying to make you think she’s working hard and contributing and towny. She doesn’t want to get shot, and that’s her goal first and foremost

What she says sounds very good… because she doesn’t actually have to consider, like, being biased toward strategies that have worked before, or having reads she’s afraid to express because she’s worried they’re insufficiently thought-through, or being frustrated with people for failing to read her correctly. It’s all very neat and tied-up and such

I have not tried to make anybody townread me! That’s not how I play as town, those aren’t my goals. I want to be right. I want to find the wolves. And I have failings when I do that: I do things that make me look wolfier but don’t actually push wolf agenda, like guessing you and Bionic as the team before you’d even posted, or constantly worrying about YBW’s slot but never actually making any kind of case to try to get anybody else to suspect her, or making bad assumptions and then immediately correcting them

When you’re trying to find a deepwolf, as you are here, you have to consider who seems like they’re trying the most, and that is exactly what made me paranoid of YBW all game, and I was right to be so. She’s working a lot to be only a little towny. That implies she’s contradicting her nature

Also she’s straight up lying in her wallpost

This would be somewhat a fair point… if this was when tutuu actually started wolfreading me!!! But that’s not true at all, tutuu was saying they wolfread me right off the bat from gut, and YBW just completely ignored that to frame tutuu’s posting as opportunistic distancing.

These posts are not referenced at all! YBW tries to make it look like tutuu’s casing me started only after tutuu was hard suspected by just completely eliminating these posts.

Tutuu was wolfreading me from literally the start of any kind of game-relevant posts they were making, and they were supporting Bionic’s wolfread on me to genuinely try to get me shot. This isn’t distancing, this doesn’t fit the profile of distancing at all, tutuu wasn’t actually clearly doomed yet, it was a genuine attempt to push agenda when she saw somebody passionately wolfreading a townie.

In fact, the bad wolfread on me was what made people suspect tutuu in the first place. There’s no way YBW would actually forget about that when casing me and try to go “oh yeah it was actually just an opportunistic read made up when tutuu was already clearly going out” in good faith. Tutuu wolfread me the entire damn time!!!

And in general it makes no sense to suspect a partner for such bad reasons that it gets you killed, that’s a straightforwardly bad strategy. It worsens your partner’s position and your own at the same time, and only buys your partner back the credibility you just sacrificed when you die. Tutuu was using the idea of shooting me as blackmail to try to stay alive. That’s not something you do with a wolf partner