Stratagem-10 FM - MAFIA VICTORY

Mafia is pain.

Anyway i am going to try to get some rest. The rest of you figure this shit out while i am away a little bit.

Nah I think I want some pressure on Jaiden if I have to clear Magnus based on the PR claim that’s going uncontested, the only other person I have some suspicions on their motives behind the sleep vote that almost saved Zorvo is Jaiden

Now, did Zorvo truly scumread Jaiden and was attempting to bus them based on his own read of Jaiden’s gameplay, or was Zorvo just bullshitting to push a person they actually town-read overboard?

I think the distinction between the two possibilities here could help. Zorvo’s gotta have reads like the rest of us right - except those reads would be flipped so he’d be scumreading the townreads and townreading the scumreads because he’s actually evil.

VOTE: Jaiden

Zorvo having that against the grain scumread on Jaiden and Jaiden still wanting to sleep vote over letting Zorvo go over is interesting too. Kinda wanna know what’s going on there.

Holy hell I did not mean for this to be so long but once I started typing I couldn't stop

Self Resolving
Magnus

Town
Silviu

Prob town
Jaiden - Would have probably been slotted to town, but need to look into what Neon and Lissi were talking about.
Neon - Mental note to look at Neon on D3, since Lissi pointed out a discrepancy of play, but Neon mentioned that that sort of townieness comes later. Prob town in my mind but need range as baseline.

I hope they get NK’d so I don’t have to fry my brain by end game lol

  • Memes - Given what feels like solid townie effort, but then again I doubt from a player of his caliber that “townie effort” cuts it for a townread. Though was wrong on people on D1 to some degree, just because someone’s wrong doesn’t mean they are automatically scum. Definitely a trickier player to read, and this is probably one of those “I hope he gets NKed so I don’t actually have to try to read him” slots.
  • Achro - The question boils down to – As scum, would Achro have bussed Zorvo on D1? I think as scum, he likely would if he knew he needed to carry his team. Judging from general D1 sentiment, I could see him needing the towncred and being wolf with Prisma and Jarek. Maybe a few others, but mostly these two. I don’t think Zorvo is an entire lost cause, since people’s reads at the time lacked strength, so I feel like it could certainly be turned around given time. So, I don’t think scum!Achro would just bus Zorvo no matter what. I think the bussing only happens if Achro’s teammate was also taking heat at the same time. Similar sentiment with Memes on “I hope they self resolve by dying”.

IDK man, though you see me wallpost on occasion, I truly am a lazy mafia player at times.

Questionable

  • Lissi - Lissi is the sort of player that has a large overlap in her town and scum game. Always strong on the analysis, questioning, and reasoning. I was wondering whether she would earnestly try to meta read me as wolf. From the game I checked, it wasn’t quite the same circumstances and I couldn’t find what I was looking for. Though I do think I remember her being willing to meta dive as either alignment. So NAI on that front. Each game I play with Lissi… I’m looking for a town distinguisher, essentially. She’s a polarized person in some senses, where there are things she would never do as scum, and I’m just looking for those moments. That’s why I’ve been trying to talk to her today… to hopefully draw out that townie side of her if she truly is town.
  • Jarek - Just because Jarek has the capacity as a player to bus doesn’t necessarily mean that yes, he has bussed Zorvo in this game and is lock scum. To me, it just means that he shouldn’t be cleared off that vote. Re-reading ISO, comes off defensive for the first half of D1. I did originally read it as “suicidal townie”, but upon re-read I feel like it could go both ways, and from the depths of my memory, I feel like I’ve seen scum act that way too. Probably not a reliable read at this point. It does look like he’s giving reads here and there though. #426 readlist sorts everyone into Town/Null though with no mafia… which pings me? Overall reads feel realtively meh ish. Like lacking a bit of depth. @Jarek how much mafia experience do you have? Like, you talk like you’ve played a decent amount of mafia, but your reads aren’t at the level that I’d expect from someone with how much experience I think you have. Just want a baseline. You say you are bad at reading people but I don’t know if that’s truely the case or just scum excuse for people to underestimate you. (Actually nvm… was about to post this but then just saw your reads from like the past 15 min. Def like those better. Maybe moved to “prob town with a tinfoil” category then.)

Falling Off

  • Prisma - Not voting D1 is bad. Not voting 2 days in a row is scummy. Honestly, with so many people having townreads for one reason or another, Prisma is just bottom POE at this point. D2 Response to being voted definitely is defending himself in a not-so-great way: “every time people think I’m scum, I’m actually town” feels like it’s just seeding doubt without really defending himself in any substantial way. Feel like Prisma has decent scum equity with a decent number of players at this point.

I’ve been playing FM for a year now. I’ve played other social deduction games for a much longer amount of time. If you can think of a game that involves social deduction I’ve probably played it.

I’ve been mostly learning as I go haven’t really been told how to play the game by anyone. I’m not bad and I’m not new either. The issue is primarily more that I don’t like putting myself out there - I don’t like being judged. I’ll just have to get over that if I want people to trust me more though.

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Yup. And that player was… Jarek or Jaiden.

Yes! Give me dead please

I can have a read I really believe in but the best I can do is “get them lol” because I don’t want people to tear my reasoning apart even if it’s iron-clad in my own opinion.

It’s silly and I’ll get over it, as I say. It just takes some time to be comfortable. We’re at the point where I am here though.

You know if it’s Jaiden I think the game is just solved

I still kill Prisma 1000 times over someone like Jaiden today.

Well maybe not if the wolves are archo and Jaiden there was clearly some divide on what they wanted to do for the votes to be split and so snappy like that and the fact the last second vote from achro would not have even put Zorvo over the edge unless someone else voted

I don’t think Achro bussing makes any sense to be honest

Achro votes in the last 2 minutes in hopes an actual town member follows the vote? And if that fails they’re just going to get into a massive argument with Zorvo about trying to kill them the next day

If the plan was for that to happen maybe I can see it but definitely not bussing by itself

I hate policy killing slankers but I get what you want to do it for

what do you mean “get them lol”

I don’t know if you need to hear this… but I don’t care whether people’s reasoning is iron-clad or trash. I think being open as town is important in helping me (and other town) find you, if you are town. If townies are just clamming up and I can’t get a feel for what they are thinking and what their reads are, I have a much much higher chance of misreading them.

Yah it’s better to kill them now that we have the upper and than later. If Prisma is town, scum will not kill them, that is the reality.

I mean I could have this really cool case on someone or whatever, but when it comes to explaining it, the best I can do is “well I just think they’re evil and stuff…” or whatever. Basically half-assed argument that doesn’t get the point across.

I had a bad first few games when I was first starting where I got shit on for having bad reads the entire time but you’re probably entirely right, we’re getting there though :stuck_out_tongue:

So you’re saying you want to kill them while town has an advantage - before wolves kill all the solv-y villagers and leave us with those that haven’t been reading the game

I’m behind that logic but I think we have a good few townies that wolves can’t just shoot 1 person and the rest of the town will fall apart so I’m not rushing into that just yet tbh

What do you think of my reads so far - I noticed you town-read Jaiden, I disagree with that, so lets start there

Link me the post saying why you scumread Jaiden, and I’ll go find the post where I townread Jaiden and we can start from there. (Just so that we don’t have to repeat ourselves)